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Andrew Reid

Full frame rival sales figures = grim reading for everyone vs Sony

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8 minutes ago, eleison said:

 

People use to think MP3 where not a serious threat to high quality wav, or hd audio, etc...  Nobody really talks about the latter anymore - even among enthusiasts.  MILC will be a serious threat to cine cams.  Sony is so big.  How is it that it hasn't destroyed blackmagic yet?  It's because there is a market for low cost cinema camera and sony does not care about.  A lot of people bought the a7iii because youtube people were using it for their channel.  Imagine when and if everyone of them started using blackmagic cameras.  Everything has gotten smaller and will continue to get smaller if it does it's intended job.

There are many other advantages to a cine cam than just codec color bit depth. Photographers have had RAW in entry-level cameras for a while now. RAW didn't kill off high-end still cams, just like 10-bit 4:2:2 video in a MILC won't kill off pro video cameras either. Like I said, other camera companies with no cine line to protect are doing it so Sony/Canon may as well follow.. oh and btw +24-bit WAV is still quite the standard in pro audio.

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EOSHD Pro Color for Sony cameras EOSHD Pro LOG for Sony CamerasEOSHD C-LOG and Film Profiles for All Canon DSLRs

I don't think MILC is true threat to S35 video camera and legit high end cinema cameras until we see an implementation of XLR's plus built in ND. Imagine if the A7siii got the varible ND filter of the FS5 and Sony already has two hot shoe XLR adapters. Only reason to buy an FS5 after that would be if you really needed that SDI or continuous recording. 

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Mistake 1:  Canon is using 4-5 year old technology. 

Mistake 2: Nikon is using 1-2 year old technology. 

The Sony FF are basically computers with a lens mount. Their handling is worst of breed. CaNikon had the opportunity to offer the first mirrorless FF cameras that handled like cameras and they threw it away. Sad. 

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27 minutes ago, Mako Sports said:

I don't think MILC is true threat to S35 video camera and legit high end cinema cameras...

 

Maybe, but I don't care if a camera is " a threat to S35 video cameras and 'legit high end cinema.'"  The standard is what will be used in most movies/videos that people watch.  If more and more MILC (I consider the BMPC4k a cheap MILC) are used to create features, than that is the standard.  Film use to be the standard.  They were expensive and bulky for the most part.  They are no longer a standard.  Things improve so that content creators can get their job done easier and quicker; and for the beginner content creator, cheaply.

 

There are "legit high end" film cinema cameras that are sitting in storage right now doing nothing.  they become obsolete because they no longer serve a purpose even though they are legit.

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26 minutes ago, Mako Sports said:

I don't think MILC is true threat to S35 video camera and legit high end cinema cameras until we see an implementation of XLR's plus built in ND. Imagine if the A7siii got the varible ND filter of the FS5 and Sony already has two hot shoe XLR adapters. Only reason to buy an FS5 after that would be if you really needed that SDI or continuous recording. 

Yep - which is why we probably won't see internal NDs in an A7sIII anytime soon. The only current MILC lineup that has a chance for internal NDs, I think, is the GH-series. Panasonic can always say "hey, it's not full-frame or Super35, so it's a different segment," which I think is true. 

Even if the GH6 had internal NDs (plus it's great XLR adapter), I don't think it would take a whole lot of sales away from the EVA-1 or S1. BUT, I do think it would instantly become the video journalists and doc filmmakers go-to camera - and pretty much everyone else who is using 1" sensor fixed lens cameras. Might even boost EVA-1 (or EVA-2 by that time) sales because it would be such an attractive B-Cam.

But I still think the GH6 needs full V-Log (13-14 stops of dynamic range) to truly be an amazing B-Cam or A-Cam for doc filmmakers. (though, the GH5 is plenty good now for doc and journalist work).

 

 

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Canon should of taken the money from my hand with the EOS R, but they didn't because of all its problems. Instead went with a fuji XT3 as a B cam / gimbal cam. Its an amazing camera for the price. You guys need to get over the full frame fetish because it just doesn't matter, in fact its just plain harder to shoot when it comes to video. reality is APSC / S35 is a rather ideal compromise between sensor size, DoF, DR and everything else you care about. In practical production, you're going to shoot FF a stop more closed down to get some margin of focus in DoF which means you are matching the look of S35, but with more light or turning the ISO up a stop. So same difference, just harder.  C300-2 is a S35 size sensor btw...

canon's lack of a C300-3 or C400 at NAB was no doubt due to lack of a R mount. I'm sure they had it ready with a EF mount, but went back to redesign the body with a R mount to sell R glass, or LPL.  Getting an internal ND wheel into a body like that is gonna be a challenge. They want to move away from EF as fast as they can now to sell us new glass. bad move, no wonder their booth was pretty empty even on mon. 

while still camera bodies are nice for small size when thats important, lack of solid audio in some cameras, lack of XLR, SDI, TC I/O, not shoulder mount friendly,  lack of good internal / on board batteries, enough buttons and knobs for important functions, not so easy to work with large lenses w/o lots of rigging, and adding on all the other gack means cinema camera bodies still have a lot of value for most folks. 

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23 hours ago, Andrew Reid said:

a7-iii-and-nikon-z6.jpg

This is sad news and maybe premature, but in my opinion all the new full frame systems all have strategic flaws.

The BCN numbers are out in Japan which show a limp launch for all the new full frame systems, followed by a tanking of sales soon afterwards until they're a fraction of the Sony A7 III. The bottom line quite literally is that Canon and Nikon are failing to take business away from Sony in the full frame mirrorless market (at least if Japan is anything to go by).

bcn-full-frame-mirrorless-sales.jpg

Read the full article

To make things worse for Canon and Nikon, the CIPA data over the last month or two shows a massive tanking in DSLR sales/shipments. MILC are down somewhat but are basically keeping an even keel keeping releases in mind.

I think what is happening is that we are full swing into the shift from DSLR to MILC now. People with Canikon who have DSLRs will jump to MILCs on their next upgrade cycle, but are not satisfied with Canikon's first offerings for the most part. So they are just holding position and not buying anything. Buying a DSLR at this point is essentially buying into a dead system, so a lot of folk are just waiting, hence low sales (especially with DSLRs).

If it carries on like this, Sony will be the dominant camera company in a few years, much like Canon are now.

21 hours ago, Andrew Reid said:

Apple certification, license fees, can't be that expensive or difficult as Blackmagic manages it all the time on much cheaper cameras than the Panasonic S1. Sort it out Japan!

More likely the reason is that Apple wants cross licensing as part of any deal, and the companies with significant IP portfolios don't want that. BM can agree to those sorts of terms because their IP portfolio is more limited and less valuable. They don't have anything to lose, whereas the Canon and Sonys of the world do.

7 hours ago, John Matthews said:

Canon and Nikon still have the foothold in DSLR, but I expect at least one of them (probably Nikon) to release a hybrid pro DSLR, with a EVF on the mirror and that can do proper video. Canikon are simply deer looking into the headlights of a very, very fast car. They need a hybrid pro DSLR now; they'll keep their bread and butter if they do. If not, Sony will eat their lunch and Nikon will be the first to go down (which would be very sad). I'm not getting that sense of urgency from them though.

Sony's success demonstrates once again that specs, marketing tactics, and manufacturing control trump handling, color science, and quality. BTW, I have a Sony now because I wanted to use more vintage glass on the proper format because the newer lenses aren't making me happy.

Anyway, those are my thoughts if anyone cares.

The DSLR market is in the process of crashing now though. Sales today are ~60% of what they were a year ago.

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There are a ton of features that could be added to cinema cameras to differentiate them from MILCs. How about wireless timecode with auto sync? It’s not even like the tech needs to be invented. 

This protectionist nonsense is killing sales and stifling innovation.

Bad market aside, I believe a lot of buyers find it hard to justify buying into any of the new systems because all of them have been released handicapped in some way or another. For 90% of users, they would do better to wait until the second generation products are released.

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Does anybody think that Sony actually has the BALLS to make an 8bit A7S-III compete against all the other 10bit cameras on the market?

Does Sony think their 8bit "low light" performace is so good that people wont care that its 8 bit?

I can say that my S1 with 10bit color already FAR exceeds any "low light" requirement I will ever need. And this is comming from a guy that just sold his A7S-II for the S1. The S1 is far superior to the A7S-II is countless ways.

When the S1 gets HDMI and Atomos ProRes raw 4k....Im finished. I dont need and A7S-III....ever!

The Lumix S1 "IS" what we have been asking for with the A7S-III.

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1 hour ago, Cliff Totten said:

Does anybody think that Sony actually has the BALLS to make an 8bit A7S-III compete against all the other 10bit cameras on the market?

Right now there is only one FF camera that can shoot 10-bit internal video, and it does not look like this is going to change any time soon.

The A7Siii is going to need a much larger body if it wants to shoot 4K 10-bit with no time-limit, and I don't know how many Sony folks would be happy about that. ( certainly none of the still photo fans )

And then there is only one camera with 5-axis IBIS that can produce smooth handheld 4K footage, so it's going to take a few more iterations for the other brands to catch up with Panasonic DUAL IS stabilization.

Panasonic is only one month in with it's S1 / S1R cameras, so the story may change by the end of the year when Sigma will have a bunch of native L-mount lenses on the market.

I'm never going back to shooting 8-bit video, especially with cameras that can't produce smooth handheld footage without a gimbal.

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1 hour ago, Cliff Totten said:

Does anybody think that Sony actually has the BALLS to make an 8bit A7S-III compete against all the other 10bit cameras on the market?

 

I'm hoping not but it certainly remains a possibility. They currently still have the weakest 8-bit 100mbps codec despite being on third generation.

Quote

Does Sony think their 8bit "low light" performace is so good that people wont care that its 8 bit?

Could be. Sony manager recently admitted A7S is aimed at photographers first. 8 bit will do for video enthusiasts & YT community. For pro video they want you to step up to XDCAM.

Quote

The Lumix S1 "IS" what we have been asking for with the A7S-III.

Not really. Nobody asked for rubbish DfD AF, 4K60p crop & a kilo weight size.

I expect A7S3 to have killer AF, 4K60p / 1080p 240fps no crop, ultra-low RS, electronic auto-ND, next-level low light & a surprise feature like 8K burst or something.

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Really, Its a Japanese company they won't risk their cinema line that much, though FS 5 needs serious upgrades in AF, that would be my go to if they would add the AF from the A73 into that form factor, Sdi, hdmi, audio, variable ND etc.  Right now Im still shooting with a C100 and a BMCC4k for a second camera, but Canon is losing me with their bull crap of dribbling crippled cameras and the lack of a c100 3500to 4000 replacement.  The R would be tempting at 1500, not 2000 even with the price drop. I would have bought an RP for 1080p gimbal camera but they chose to take away 24 p in 1080,  tired of that game, I'm probably going to buy an XT3 for my gimbal camera .

Not sure but plummeting sales might be a clue to them.  Andrews initial analysis of the state of things was very accurate,  not always do I agree with his viewpoints, but that was right on the money.  The Chinese will also eat the Japanese camera manufactures if they continue this conservative game.  Look at the disruptors in audio and lighting coming to market, iE Aputure.  Its only a matter of time until cheap cinema cameras will be upon us.  

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Yep, would have considered S1 except for the lacking AFC, 4k60p crop and hella expensive lenses not to mention paid firmware upgrades.

It's very expensive to get into for unproven AFC and Ibis compared to bmpcc4k... If I'm going to pay premium for a system it better have premium features and results.  

The Ibis and colors look really good though. 

Sony Ibis is such trash and it's absolutely terrible with my 16-35gm/a7iii

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1 hour ago, scotchtape said:

Yep, would have considered S1 except for the lacking AFC, 4k60p crop and hella expensive lenses not to mention paid firmware upgrades.

It's very expensive to get into for unproven AFC and Ibis compared to bmpcc4k... If I'm going to pay premium for a system it better have premium features and results.  

The Ibis and colors look really good though. 

Sony Ibis is such trash and it's absolutely terrible with my 16-35gm/a7iii

The lowlight performance would be vastly better than the pocket, but I get it. Its a lot of money. You could potentially get around the crop with a speedbooster though, which would also bring you into medium format territory when not shooting in cropped mode.

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Because Canon continues to hoard their 4K non-crop and DPAF features for their cinema line at a time in which most other brands are offering it in all of their cameras. 

That 1.8x crop is a killer when you factor in that you have to change lenses to go between 1080p and 4K to get the same FOV. 

If the 5D3, 5D4 or 6DII had proper 4K, most previous Canon owners would have never jumped ship. 

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9 hours ago, Mokara said:

The DSLR market is in the process of crashing now though. Sales today are ~60% of what they were a year ago.

Those numbers are misleading. Mirrorless is definitely eating up the low-end, but the pro market (stills, wildlife, sports) is shooting DSLR and will continue until Canikon have pro-grade mirrorless bodies available. Canikon's current offerings lack so much that the pro-market require (and will continue to require). I don't see doom for the pro DSLR market quite yet. This will only happen when manufacturers produce an adapter that will correctly operate a DSLR lens and manufacturers have pro-level bodies... dual card slots, vertical grips, better AF. Why would a pro sell all their lenses and bodies for mirrorless when mirrorless really doesn't offer anything more than the lack of a mirror? Maybe, in the segment of of pro-DSLR, a hybrid system will spell the end of mirrorless at the high-end pro-grade cameras... it could happen. Personally, I really miss the ability to look through a viewfinder when the camera is turned off. I liked that... maybe I'm weird though. 

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On 5/2/2019 at 3:20 AM, Andrew Reid said:

a7-iii-and-nikon-z6.jpg

This is sad news and maybe premature, but in my opinion all the new full frame systems all have strategic flaws.

The BCN numbers are out in Japan which show a limp launch for all the new full frame systems, followed by a tanking of sales soon afterwards until they're a fraction of the Sony A7 III. The bottom line quite literally is that Canon and Nikon are failing to take business away from Sony in the full frame mirrorless market (at least if Japan is anything to go by).

bcn-full-frame-mirrorless-sales.jpg

Read the full article

 

Overall camera sales based on BCN's figures (BCN only gather 40% of total POS in Japan by their own reckoning.) Have Canon crops in the top 4 spots. Sony's first entry is the a6400 at 6th.

The A7iii comes in at 17th for body only model with the zoom model at 22nd. The EOS R is at 34th body only. The EOS R as a kit is not in the top 50. Neither body only or kit RP is in the top 50. And this is very telling. Because it contradicts the FF sales data. How can the RP be ranked below the R and not be in the top 50 according to this data https://www.bcnretail.com/research/ranking/monthly/list/contents_type=101 yet outsell the R throughout the month by a large margin according to the graph.

There is a misalignment of a week in the two data sets but something is seriously screwy and until it is clear, the data from both sets needs to be treated as invalid.

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6 hours ago, chadandreo said:

Because Canon continues to hoard their 4K non-crop and DPAF features for their cinema line at a time in which most other brands are offering it in all of their cameras. 

 

huh? what DPAF features are they holding back?? also, aside from the +$30K C700 all the EOS Cinema line has cropped sensors. 

Quote

That 1.8x crop is a killer when you factor in that you have to change lenses to go between 1080p and 4K to get the same FOV. 

This is a tech limitation due to not being able to do full read-out of the 30.3MP sensor.

That is why the EOS RP 26MP 4K crop is lower (1.6x) and 20MP 1DX2 4K even better (1.3x).

This one hasn't got to do with camera segmentation. Canon isn't alone, just released S1 has a 1.5x 4K60p crop.

 

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The S1 is the only full frame mirrorless camera to offer 4k 60p, funny how it is being criticised for offering it -  i doubt it is segmentation that is holding it back, more a technical limit same as the Eos-r can only do 4k 25p with a 1.8 crop and horrible RS and disappointing DR. 

Panasonic tend to try and cram as much as they can into their cameras, but Canon not so much - they are the masters at segmentation, you just have to pay 1dx mk2 prices to get 4k60p, but then they won't also give you c-log...

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Oh cmon, Panasonic removed a lot of video stuff to not take away from GH5 sales. They don't give you V-Log either, it's a paid option. 

People love to demonize Canon but none of these companies are church organizations..

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