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Andrew Reid

Full frame rival sales figures = grim reading for everyone vs Sony

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On 5/3/2019 at 2:00 PM, DBounce said:

All the tech is protected by IP... if Fuji and Nikon can implement it on their Sony based sensors, so can Panasonic. The S1 is almost twice the cost as the X-T3. 

And as was already pointed out, bundling an audio codec firmware with a picture profile makes no sense. It should be free with the $400 DMW-XLR1 audio adapter.

Fuji and Nikon likely already have a patent position, or hold a license to use someone else's patents. That is why they can use the technology. Presumably Panasonic do not, so they cannot implement it even if they wanted to. Cost has nothing to do with it. Freedom to operate does.

Audio codecs carry license fees, they are not free. The only people who need high end audio are those who do pro/semi-pro types of video. Not everyone shoots video. Why should a stills photographer have to pay more in order to subsidize the minority who shoots video? If you want those tools, you can get them, but it will cost you. Panasonic appear to have made the decision to separate those tools and the license fees associated with them and shifted those costs directly onto the users who want them, while keeping the cost of the camera itself down for most other users.

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EOSHD Pro Color for Sony cameras EOSHD Pro LOG for Sony CamerasEOSHD C-LOG and Film Profiles for All Canon DSLRs
On 5/2/2019 at 10:18 PM, TwoMetreBill said:

Mistake 1:  Canon is using 4-5 year old technology. 

Mistake 2: Nikon is using 1-2 year old technology. 

The Sony FF are basically computers with a lens mount. Their handling is worst of breed. CaNikon had the opportunity to offer the first mirrorless FF cameras that handled like cameras and they threw it away. Sad. 

What are you saying, at least for Nikon, the z6 beats the A73 in everything except photo auto focus. For video it will get RAW video firmware upgrade, that is a $2500 (today with discount) package with full frame RAW video, which is insane. The Nikon error was the dual card slot and releasing the z7 before the z6 and at a price which was higher than the D850. Everyone compared it to what is the best DSLR in history and it did not compare in two very important thing compared to it. The first being auto focus that is better than any MILC including Sony and dual card slot. Third thing is Lens line-up which is normal. They are working a lot on it, but will know only in 2 years how much it affected Sales compared to Sony, when native lens line up is more mature.

Now looking at the figures, clearly the dual card slot and photo auto focus (which is getting a big update in a week), have made a lasting impact to the sales. I hope they remedy the dual card slot in next version and produce a cheaper version with fully articulating screen. For me Nikon should absolutely produce an APSC Z mount like the D5600. That is a perfect vlogger camera (which will be smaller than d5600) with full articulating screen, to get people into the system.

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On 5/2/2019 at 11:21 PM, SteveOakley said:

Canon should of taken the money from my hand with the EOS R, but they didn't because of all its problems. Instead went with a fuji XT3 as a B cam / gimbal cam. Its an amazing camera for the price. You guys need to get over the full frame fetish because it just doesn't matter, in fact its just plain harder to shoot when it comes to video. reality is APSC / S35 is a rather ideal compromise between sensor size, DoF, DR and everything else you care about. In practical production, you're going to shoot FF a stop more closed down to get some margin of focus in DoF which means you are matching the look of S35, but with more light or turning the ISO up a stop. So same difference, just harder.  C300-2 is a S35 size sensor btw...

canon's lack of a C300-3 or C400 at NAB was no doubt due to lack of a R mount. I'm sure they had it ready with a EF mount, but went back to redesign the body with a R mount to sell R glass, or LPL.  Getting an internal ND wheel into a body like that is gonna be a challenge. They want to move away from EF as fast as they can now to sell us new glass. bad move, no wonder their booth was pretty empty even on mon. 

while still camera bodies are nice for small size when thats important, lack of solid audio in some cameras, lack of XLR, SDI, TC I/O, not shoulder mount friendly,  lack of good internal / on board batteries, enough buttons and knobs for important functions, not so easy to work with large lenses w/o lots of rigging, and adding on all the other gack means cinema camera bodies still have a lot of value for most folks. 

I was never the biggest fan of super low dof video when it was so in vogue when the 5D came out etc, find it distracting for video. But now I think it is the best format at least for doc work. The two reason is that a F4 zoom will provide you S35 F 2.8 esthetic for half or lower price and secondly flexibility. The Nikon 24-70 F4 is 600 usd with the body, which will provide you 24-70 in apsc 2.8 equivalences and 70 to 105 mm in f4 apsc look when you put the camera in 4k apsc mode. Now thats the most restrictive f4 zoom range. I for example was thinking of getting a 24-120 F4 (Fmount). That is a 24-120 equivalent f 2.8 s35 look. There is no APSC lens like that until you get into those CINE zoom that cost more than a car and need a car to carry them. Even a 24-105 mm F4 lens would cover 90% of needs.

Another thing which is better with FF format is ND filter. You are getting a stop more you can close down to maintain s35 look. I have found that most variable ND filter start to exhibit x pattern etc at about 5-6 stop, which is exactly the range a F4 aperture works out in sunlight situation.

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The only benefit of smaller sensors is really size. My XT-30 plus 18-55 is super small and I don't have to worry about over heating either.

Of course at the moment full frame sensors, in the SLR world, haven't caught up to M43 or S35 in terms of capabilities. The Pana S1 does 4k 60p but only in 8 bit.

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The interpretation of these figures has been stretched way too thin - they only provide evidence that Sony is not being dominated by the new releases as some have predicted. The overall market is still shifting gradually towards mirrorless and the market shares are shifting at very low rate.

But the shift is nowhere near tectonic and with Canikon setting foot in FF mirrorless, brand loyalist can remain put and wait to the lens/body selection to grow until they feel the need to upgrade (which could take a while, since good DSLR gear will be going for cheaper on the used market and the existing gear is plenty capable as is right now).

It is not a good time to be a manufacturer, but it is a great time to be a consumer - until new gear starts getting prohibitively expensive, because of the economy of scaling-down.

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1 hour ago, anthony fiorillo said:

A while ago, I heard a rumor that the fuji x-t3 moved to a samsung sensor.  This correct or was that rumor not correct and it actually does have a Sony sensor as well?

Sony sensor

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11 hours ago, Mattias Burling said:

;)

cry.thumb.jpg.23ac9ce17eba519410d07752447ae231.jpg

They lead in a market segment that Sony doesn't really compete in though (namely the low end consumer segment). Profit margins are low in that segment, so even though they might sell a fair number of units, they won't make a whole lot of money doing it. They likely have to sell 10-20 M50s to get the same net profit a a7III makes.

11 hours ago, JurijTurnsek said:

The interpretation of these figures has been stretched way too thin - they only provide evidence that Sony is not being dominated by the new releases as some have predicted. The overall market is still shifting gradually towards mirrorless and the market shares are shifting at very low rate.

But the shift is nowhere near tectonic and with Canikon setting foot in FF mirrorless, brand loyalist can remain put and wait to the lens/body selection to grow until they feel the need to upgrade (which could take a while, since good DSLR gear will be going for cheaper on the used market and the existing gear is plenty capable as is right now).

It is not a good time to be a manufacturer, but it is a great time to be a consumer - until new gear starts getting prohibitively expensive, because of the economy of scaling-down.

Actually, figures for the last few months have DSLR sales cratering bigtime. They are down to 50-60% of previous years sales. If you look at the BCN sales rankings for individual FF cameras, it is completely dominated by MILCs. The only DSLRs that feature at the top are the bargain basement Rebel types.

3 hours ago, webrunner5 said:

 

It is primarily because the market is shifting to MILCs from DSLRs, and Canikon fans are skipping the first serious generation of MILCs from those manufacturers to avoid the "teething" issues. My guess is that their sales will pick up again when the next generation of the R/Z cameras come out. Assuming that they can compete with Sony's constant pushing of the envelope of course, and I have my doubts about that. Up until now they have largely had the DSLR world to themselves, but moving over to MILCs they will be facing up directly against some very formidable competition, and they won't be able to trot out the sales pitch that mirrored systems are just better. 

Time will tell. The camera world is in flux at the moment. As I have been predicting for the last few years, 2019 is going to be the year stuff changes ;)

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1 hour ago, Mokara said:

They lead in a market segment that Sony doesn't really compete in though (namely the low end consumer segment). Profit margins are low in that segment, so even though they might sell a fair number of units, they won't make a whole lot of money doing it. They likely have to sell 10-20 M50s to get the same net profit a a7III makes.

Actually, figures for the last few months have DSLR sales cratering bigtime. They are down to 50-60% of previous years sales. If you look at the BCN sales rankings for individual FF cameras, it is completely dominated by MILCs. The only DSLRs that feature at the top are the bargain basement Rebel types.

It is primarily because the market is shifting to MILCs from DSLRs, and Canikon fans are skipping the first serious generation of MILCs from those manufacturers to avoid the "teething" issues. My guess is that their sales will pick up again when the next generation of the R/Z cameras come out. Assuming that they can compete with Sony's constant pushing of the envelope of course, and I have my doubts about that. Up until now they have largely had the DSLR world to themselves, but moving over to MILCs they will be facing up directly against some very formidable competition, and they won't be able to trot out the sales pitch that mirrored systems are just better. 

Time will tell. The camera world is in flux at the moment. As I have been predicting for the last few years, 2019 is going to be the year stuff changes ;)

2020 is when Canon is predicted to have their EOS R Pro cameras - high resolution model and EOS R pro. They will have their trinity lenses and 85 1.2 RF. The rumored price of 85 1.2 RF is supposed to be $3250 with tax included. I think Canon anticipated less sale and price it accordingly to economy of scale.

Canon, Sony, Panasonic, Nikon all have pro and cons and I think their next model will address some of the complains.

I bought the Panasonic S1 because it come closest to the perfect camera I want now while waiting for the next big thing if those companies ever deliver. I got the S1 for $2000 while waiting to see how it unfold. I'm still reluctant to commit to buying native lenses because 2020 landscape will be different.  

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1 hour ago, PrometheusDM said:

2020 is when Canon is predicted to have their EOS R Pro cameras - high resolution model and EOS R pro. They will have their trinity lenses and 85 1.2 RF. The rumored price of 85 1.2 RF is supposed to be $3250 with tax included. I think Canon anticipated less sale and price it accordingly to economy of scale.

Canon, Sony, Panasonic, Nikon all have pro and cons and I think their next model will address some of the complains.

I bought the Panasonic S1 because it come closest to the perfect camera I want now while waiting for the next big thing if those companies ever deliver. I got the S1 for $2000 while waiting to see how it unfold. I'm still reluctant to commit to buying native lenses because 2020 landscape will be different.  

2020 will probably have a a7RIV though, and what will that be able to do? Not to mention the a9II supposedly coming out late this year or early 2020. Those are the cameras that Canons pro MILCs will have to face off against.

I had a look at the S1 (a local store has one on display). I did not care much for the form factor, it just seemed too big for my hands, and that is very important (for me at least). 

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23 hours ago, Mokara said:

2020 will probably have a a7RIV though, and what will that be able to do? Not to mention the a9II supposedly coming out late this year or early 2020. Those are the cameras that Canons pro MILCs will have to face off against.

I had a look at the S1 (a local store has one on display). I did not care much for the form factor, it just seemed too big for my hands, and that is very important (for me at least). 

It depends on what A7RIV offers. If it has better resolution (rumored 60 mpx), match Panasonic S1 5.76 million dot EVF, and similar body design for $3200, I have no interest. It just an incremental upgrade that are more expensive than my S1 that I bought for $2000 and get to use it now.

One of the reason I bought the S1 now is because it come close to the perfect camera for me. It has great ergonomic (for my preference), 5.76 million dot EVF, great IBIS (handheld 2 seconds), dual card slot, eyeAF, menu, color, USB C. I might be tempted if Sony has a revolutionary sensor, but eventually Panasonic and Nikon will have it in their next camera.

I'm traveling a lot this year to once in a lifetime destinations so I wanted to upgrade my 5D IV. If the A7RIV is a revolutionary camera, I don't mind buying it later at cheaper price and consider the S1 a rental. But who knows if A7RIV will offer something revolutionary.

I'm not going to wait around for the next best thing. 5 years from now, A9II/A7RIV will be old news and we will keep waiting for the next best thing. S1 is a very capable camera for my needs now.  

Canon EOS R is a $2300 camera without IBIS, no dual card slot, no 4K60, 2.5 year old sensor, EOS R Pro will cost a lot. It's rumored to be a high resolution camera like 5DSR that's going to be release in 2020. I don't know if Canon will handicap this camera in someway or sensor finally caught up. 60 mpx EOS R with dual card slot doesn't really impress me especially $3200+.

22 hours ago, Mako Sports said:

A9mkii is going be to insane. Legendary might be an understatement. 

We don't know until it's released. If it's offer something revolutionary (global shutter, 5.76 million dot EVF, better ergonomic, 36 mpx 16 bit sensor) for my needs then maybe I can justify $4500 price point.  

I'm cautious with what the internet says especially after the rave review of A9 and A7III since it doesn't really apply to me.

A9 20 fps doesn't impress me other than the eyeAF (nice to have but not really needed) nor does the A7III price point of $2000 when I found its ergonomic, menu, 2.36 million dot EVF, 900K non touch screen LCD, build quality to be lacking despite internet raving about the camera. 

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3 hours ago, PrometheusDM said:

We don't know until it's released. If it's offer something revolutionary (global shutter, 5.76 million dot EVF, better ergonomic, 36 mpx 16 bit sensor) for my needs then maybe I can justify $4500 price point.  

I'm cautious with what the internet says especially after the rave review of A9 and A7III since it doesn't really apply to me.

A9 20 fps doesn't impress me other than the eyeAF (nice to have but not really needed) nor does the A7III price point of $2000 when I found its ergonomic, menu, 2.36 million dot EVF, 900K non touch screen LCD, build quality to be lacking despite internet raving about the camera. 

It likely won't have a true global shutter, just a very fast read speed so that for practical purposes it will act much like one.

I am pretty sure that an a9 is a better camera than a S1 though. 

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On 5/6/2019 at 5:12 AM, Mokara said:

Fuji and Nikon likely already have a patent position, or hold a license to use someone else's patents. That is why they can use the technology. Presumably Panasonic do not, so they cannot implement it even if they wanted to. Cost has nothing to do with it. Freedom to operate does.

Audio codecs carry license fees, they are not free. The only people who need high end audio are those who do pro/semi-pro types of video. Not everyone shoots video. Why should a stills photographer have to pay more in order to subsidize the minority who shoots video? If you want those tools, you can get them, but it will cost you. Panasonic appear to have made the decision to separate those tools and the license fees associated with them and shifted those costs directly onto the users who want them, while keeping the cost of the camera itself down for most other users.

Sony will liscence phase detect AF on their sensors to Olumpus and Nikon with no trouble. But,...there is no way they will EVER liscense it to Panasonic. They will say, "we are happy to sell you our sensor and even liscence you 4k 30p and 60p in 10bit....but we will force you to keep contrast AF only....no PDAF for you!"

To my knowledge, the only phase detect AF cameras on planet Earth are Canon cameras....or. any other phone or camera that buys Sony sensors. That's it, if you are not Canon than you get your PDAF through your Sony sensor liscense and contract of sale.

Panny is deliberetely left out in the cold. They dont "believe" contrast detect is better...no, the truth is that Panny has no choice in the matter.

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14 hours ago, Mokara said:

It likely won't have a true global shutter, just a very fast read speed so that for practical purposes it will act much like one.

I am pretty sure that an a9 is a better camera than a S1 though. 

If the A9II do not have revolutionary sensor like global shutter, at least better ergonomic and 5.76 million dot EVF, 4K60 then I'm not interested in $4500 camera.

A9 has very fast read speed too but when you are shooting flash, it still requires HSS. 

A9 is a better camera for sport and action. It depends for whom. If you are looking for 20 fps, best AF, then A9

I found 7 fps to be enough but prefer a camera to have great ergonomic, EVF, IBIS, fully touch screen LCD. Some people prefer 4K60, unlimited 4K 30. Once it has 10 bit upgrade, it will be bigger gap of things it can do vs A9.

The S1 excel in alot of area that the much more expensive camera A9 cannot. Someone mentioned they are able to handheld S1 and get 2.5 second image whereas their Sony A7III 1/10 is a hit or miss. This is from someone who own both camera. Sony IBIS, non fully touch screen LCD is really behind the competitions.

For that much money, I expect it to excel in most areas not just AF over S1. Yes I know it's an older camera.

I can afford A9, but I don't see any value for things I don't use - 20 FPS. The superb eyeAF is nice, but it isn't needed for me to get the shot. All the competitions do good enough job for me.

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14 hours ago, Cliff Totten said:

Sony will liscence phase detect AF on their sensors to Olumpus and Nikon with no trouble. But,...there is no way they will EVER liscense it to Panasonic. They will say, "we are happy to sell you our sensor and even liscence you 4k 30p and 60p in 10bit....but we will force you to keep contrast AF only....no PDAF for you!"

To my knowledge, the only phase detect AF cameras on planet Earth are Canon cameras....or. any other phone or camera that buys Sony sensors. That's it, if you are not Canon than you get your PDAF through your Sony sensor liscense and contract of sale.

Panny is deliberetely left out in the cold. They dont "believe" contrast detect is better...no, the truth is that Panny has no choice in the matter.

Your conspiracy is so twisted.

Why would Sony sell Panasonic their "patented 5.76 million dot EVF" and allow them to be the first manufacture with Sony's highest EVF and sensor with 4K 60 but won't sell hybrid AF? It isn't like Phase detect AF is something special new feature no other camera has it before like 4K60 or highest EVF.

Why would Sony license to Nikon & Fuji their sensors with hybrid AF but won't to Panasonic. Sony sensor division is independent of their camera  division on who they will license it to. They will sell to whoever has the money to pay for it.

Or could it be Panasonic do not want hybrid AF that has banding issues reported with Canon EOS R, Nikon Z, and Sony camera. It's rare but does happens. Check out DPReview forums for posts related to it. Panasonic mentioned they want to prioritize image quality and did not want to compromise on the IQ. I'm not sure if they will ever succeed, but I applaud them for going against the grain to figure something out with DFD tech and making mirrorless cameras not small like everyone else for those that prefer it. It's nice to have choices.

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