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#CoronavirusFireSales, predictions?


IronFilm

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Saw an ARRI ALEXA Classic sell for sub US$5K on eBay today:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/ARRI-Alexa-EV-Classic-Camera-Bundle-High-Speed-License/324102741260

Bet this is only the start, we'll see many more insane prices happen before we're out of the worst of this!

Wonder just how much cheaper we'll see an ARRI ALEXA Classic sell for over the next eighteen months, what else will come crashing down in price? There is a Sony PMW-F5 on eBay with no bids about to end soon for $3.5K

One thing that I was surprised how high it was being bid up for is a Blackmagic Design Web Presenter! (and it's the only one on eBay too) I guess people really really want to do live streaming, rather than meetings in person!

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I'm predicting the virus will sputter out within a few weeks so I'm looking for summer flights to the west coast of Oregon.  I'm thinking flights should be extremely cheap right now - and perhaps hotels.  

 

57 minutes ago, Avenger 2.0 said:

Not sure, maybe people will also be keeping their current camera's for another year or two.
And less second hand camera's and less demand may keep prices mostly the same.
Of couse now in the middle of the crisis one might do good deals for someone that really needs the money.

Yeah, I think this will be the case since a lot of camera releases seem to have been delayed.  When the floodgates of new camera models come onto the market, the price of used cameras will go down.

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The only ones who will be able to buy fire sale stuff now though will be people in the USA with plenty of money in the bank.

Everyone else will be losing their jobs or getting much less work or seeing the prices of basic foods going up or living in countries that are seeing their exchange rates tank (The Aussie dollar is at a 17 year low against the US dollar this morning).     I am poor anyway so none of this cheap good gear for me  but I will get through this thing better than most (as long as I can buy two extra weeks worth of acceptable food on payday).

I have the gear I want (for now anyway) but my biggest problem will be ALL the photo and video ops for me are vanishing for the next few months (most have already).     I will be left with just local walks for now.

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1 hour ago, noone said:

The only ones who will be able to buy fire sale stuff now though will be people in the USA with plenty of money in the bank.

Everyone else will be losing their jobs or getting much less work or seeing the prices of basic foods going up or living in countries that are seeing their exchange rates tank (The Aussie dollar is at a 17 year low against the US dollar this morning).     I am poor anyway so none of this cheap good gear for me  but I will get through this thing better than most (as long as I can buy two extra weeks worth of acceptable food on payday).

I have the gear I want (for now anyway) but my biggest problem will be ALL the photo and video ops for me are vanishing for the next few months (most have already).     I will be left with just local walks for now.

Or just... People anywhere with plenty of money in the bank. 

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9 hours ago, eleison said:

I'm predicting the virus will sputter out within a few weeks so I'm looking for summer flights to the west coast of Oregon.  I'm thinking flights should be extremely cheap right now - and perhaps hotels.  

Whatever you do, make sure your bookings allow you to freely cancel or rebook the dates without charge! (lots of airlines are offering this as a sweetener to entice people to still book with them)

As I personally think this will last for more than just a few weeks. 

 

11 hours ago, IronFilm said:

Wonder just how much cheaper we'll see an ARRI ALEXA Classic sell for over the next eighteen months, what else will come crashing down in price? There is a Sony PMW-F5 on eBay with no bids about to end soon for $3.5K

It got only ONE bid on it, sold for the reverse price of US$3.5K

https://www.ebay.com/itm/SONY-PMW-F5-CineAlta-Digital-Camera-VIEW-FINDER-TRIPOD-3-BATT-CHARGER-INCLUDED-/233521807672

That's an INSANE price for a Sony F5! Especially as it came with the rig / viewfinder / batteries / tripod!
(kinda sort of wish I'd got this F5 instead of spending even more than that on a Sound Devices 833? eh)
 

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12 hours ago, IronFilm said:


One thing that I was surprised how high it was being bid up for is a Blackmagic Design Web Presenter! (and it's the only one on eBay too) I guess people really really want to do live streaming, rather than meetings in person!

so does anyone want to start a channel on chaterbate ? 😉

the government reckons we are going to get a $750 bonus for the low income people which i'm  apart of. If that money does turn up, it be nice to get a lens but the reality is its already spent on repairs on machinery,  so at least i keep a local fed and watered for a bit. The overseas economies will have to wait for awhile longer for my support.

 

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6 hours ago, FranciscoB said:

Or just... People anywhere with plenty of money in the bank. 

True but that money buys a lot less now in most places compared to the US.    Bad luck also if your money is in shares.     The Australian dollar for instance has recently gone down quite a bit so anything on Ebay unless it is from here is going to cost more even if it IS cheaper in US dollars.

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1 hour ago, noone said:

True but that money buys a lot less now in most places compared to the US.    Bad luck also if your money is in shares.     The Australian dollar for instance has recently gone down quite a bit so anything on Ebay unless it is from here is going to cost more even if it IS cheaper in US dollars.

yeah with the aus dollara at the moment looking at ebay is just like window shopping 🙄

colour me cynical, i doubt that the government even cares, a low aus dollar just means someone can can sell more iron ore, aluminum and coal, yay more royalties/ taxes. Of course the other side of the coin is,  to buy something costs more  + gst so as far as the government is concerned its a win / win.

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1 hour ago, leslie said:

yeah with the aus dollara at the moment looking at ebay is just like window shopping 🙄

colour me cynical, i doubt that the government even cares, a low aus dollar just means someone can can sell more iron ore, aluminum and coal, yay more royalties/ taxes. Of course the other side of the coin is,  to buy something costs more  + gst so as far as the government is concerned its a win / win.

On the other hand it means the Australian government will be able to pay everyone that loses their jobs the dole at least and bale out a lot of companies.     I am just annoyed they are saying people should stop hoarding and stopping buying multiples of things but at the same time wanting people to self isolate if required so I can not buy two weeks worth of food now (and you can not buy it once you DO have to self isolate).     Looking like 14 trips to the supermarket for me on payday.

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I have to say that this is one of the most cynical and opportunistic threads that I've ever seen on here and I find it morally ambiguous at best.

I will of course be checking it regularly to observe the level of decline in public spirit during these dark days so if any of you ghouls see a Leica X Vario in reasonable condition anywhere around or below £500 during these repugnant trawls please make sure you post it here

;)

 

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3 hours ago, Geoff CB said:

Best deal I'm seeing right now is a FS7 for $3300.

That's cheap! But I bet prices will only plunge even lower. 

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I just found myself a criminally cheap Lectrosonics LMb for just US$300ish!

That was so dirt cheap I had to even break my own self isolation ban from gear purchases that I've imposed upon myself for 2020 for my own financial health. (due to the NZ Dollar which dropped like a stone, plus let's face it, we're entering into a recession, likely a deep and dark one. We should be counting our pennies! Just today it got announced New Zealand is going into lock down for a month. But heh, who really believes this will be over in just four weeks? Hello martial law! Hello police state! They've already stated that they're sending out the army to patrol our streets to ensure everyone obeys)

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5 hours ago, IronFilm said:

who really believes this will be over in just four weeks?

I got a POTUS that's saying 15 days.  Or are you asking who (among actual serious people) believes this will be over in four weeks?

In the meantime I'm absolutely upset at myself for not having a fire sale of my gear this past November, to sell it during Christmas time.  The re-sale value of gear is going to be a disaster for a long long time and I have too much sound equipment and cameras just laying about.

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6 hours ago, IronFilm said:

But heh, who really believes this will be over in just four weeks? Hello martial law! Hello police state! They've already stated that they're sending out the army to patrol our streets to ensure everyone obeys)

I think you bring up a really good point.

Here in the US, there are certain counties (like where I live) and I think entire states (New York???) where Shelter In Place orders are in effect. I think the duration varies from county to county (for those not familiar with what a US "county" is, I guess it is about the equivalence of a province in some European countries???)

Anyway, as you noted, I think the coronovirus will be far from wiped out at the end of four weeks.

But I think it will (hopefully) give us time to get hospitals and the entire medical system better prepared, and hopefully prevent local hospitals from getting overwhelmed.

Hopefully, we will have more testing kits (and quicker test results), and hospital staff will be able to have more masks / gloves / other supplies that they need. 

Around here, they talk about flattening the curve. That doesn't mean no new cases; it just means getting the rate of new infections to a "manageable" level.

Personally, I am pretty pessimistic on any sort of vaccine / cure any time soon. And if there is a vaccine, it might be good to remember that vaccines for the flu range in efficacy only from 40 to 60% (depending on the strain of the flu).

And even if they do develop a pretty effective vaccine, here in the US, there are people who refuse to be vaccinated. 

And finally, it should probably be noted that worldwide, 1.7 Million people are newly infected with HIV, a virus that is MUCH HARDER to catch than Coronavirus. UNAIDS says that in 2018 770 thousand people died of AIDS related diseases.

Chances are we will be living with coronavirus and mutations of it for quite some time.

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