kye Posted September 21, 2022 Author Share Posted September 21, 2022 On 9/18/2022 at 9:59 PM, MrSMW said: I have often thought manufacturers shoot themselves in the foot by being so Secret Squirrel about their plans… Actually, that's not true at all. Let's imagine that Panasonic announced their plans for the next few years. Scenario 1: they announce they won't upgrade their AF. The internet goes bat-shit crazy (the way they always do) and people start trash talking the brand, which causes people to believe the system is going down, which makes people sell to get out, which causes more supply than demand, second-hand prices crash, game over. Scenario 2: they announce they will have PDAF, certain resolutions/framerates/codecs, and perhaps other features. Putting such stuff out into the market is basically a commitment (the saying "under-promise and over-deliver" is used for good reason and this would be the opposite) so now the competing brands can work out what they need to do to prevent Panny from having any competitive edge during this time. Sensor manufacturers now know the public commitments Panny have made, which means that Panny won't have as good a bargaining position when buying sensors. If Sony make a sensor that Panny need to meet their public promises, how aggressive do you think that will make them when it comes to negotiation? Panny will either announce features that are currently available (eg, sensor specs) in which case they will not be cutting edge, and if they announce things that are not yet possible then the sensor manufacturers could deliberately adjust their own strategy so that they can make new products but Panny cannot meet their promises. Product design for high-tech products like this are typically done in phases where the outcome isn't yet known. For example, in year 1 they might confirm the overall architecture of the device and (with some rough performance / features as placeholders) would make sure that the controllers and screens and batteries and all the other stuff is worked out. Year 2 might have working prototypes being built with placeholder chips (maybe you use the latest version of whatever that chip is but know a new version is expected in the final year of development - most chipsets have similar instructions etc so you can kind of prepare for the newer ones in this way). Then year 3 might be the final year where you get samples of the final chipsets and sensor, do your optimisations to things like sensor configuration (in ARRI they have multiple divisions whose only job is to tweak the sensor and image processing voltages / clock speeds / algorithms etc), and get commercial relationships confirmed like ordering the parts in the quantity you need and arranging deals for codecs and IP stuff. This is why companies are often pushing products out without the complete set of features, and why things like the GH5 unlocked lots more modes and codecs, deals with RED / BM / Atomos / Apple for codecs are often added after launch or shipping, etc. So in the final year you have a few versions of a working camera but haven't confirmed which sensor you'll use, so you can release a camera with the older one (and probably price it a little less) or go with the newer one and have better specs and charge more. If you announce your roadmap you're giving away all your options when these stages of the camera design arrive. It might be a nice thing to have as a consumer, but it would completely screw the company. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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