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Andrew Reid

High Sony sales prompted Nikon full frame mirrorless camera development - Will Panasonic / Olympus follow?

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If Canikon knock it out of the park I don't see why anyone would consider m4/3 anymore. The Gh5 and Em1 II are already large cameras and there isn't so much to be gained in terms of size unless you are talking about telephoto lenses. The new nikon mirrorless looks to be diminutive in size so I don't think it will be too much of a consideration for people. I think panisonic and olympus either go full frame or die a slow death. Especially with full frame cameras dropping in price. 

We are seeing the same problem with the fuji and the xh1, being in practical terms more expensive than the a7iii. The thing with fuji is that their lenses are quite expensive, especially considering they are apsc lenses. For example, their 100-400 is priced equivalently to canon's superior and pro level 100-400. Their range at the long end isn't good either.    

 

 

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I feel like people are way too caught up on full frame. Will Panasonic and Olympus come out with a full frame camera? If they feel the market demands one, then yeah, it's inevitable. But is it required? I don't think so. I'd honestly be happy with a Super 35mm sized sensor with a M43 mount, like I have in my JVC LS300, because with full frame will inevitably come larger / heavier lenses and I'd prefer not to deal with that. 

As a M43 user I've really never felt like I was missing out too much shooting with a smaller sensor. I'm much more interested in better auto focus; if Panasonic could get it on the level of Sony or Canon I'd be extremely content. If they can come out with a FF camera that's great, too, but for my uses, it's not a requirement. 

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1 hour ago, 64mulford said:

I don't think Panasonic should jump on the FF bandwagon. I think their smaller sensor is their unique selling point. The GH5s sensor has proven you can squeeze high iso/low noise performance out of a smaller sensor and this is only the beginning really. I think the smaller sensor allows them to push video tech faster - like the GH5 have 4k60p, who knows what is capable in the GH6 but I think the FF cameras will always be playing catch up to the smaller sensors cameras in that regard simply because they can process that information faster. Chuck a speedbooster on and problem solved.

I'm shooting with a GH5/speedbooster XL and a new A7iii with mc-11 - both using my canon L glass. Much prefer the GH5 for video. that 10bit is amazing.

What Panasonic should be doing is keeping their m43 mount cause there is some amazing compact glass for it but do what JVC did and chuck a Super 35 sensor in there. Imagine that with a speedbooster. All the benefits of a faster, smaller sensor but full frame look.

The problem with the gh5s is that it is only 10 megapixel. I mean for video it might be fantastic, but for photography it is just too low. In 3 years time max, all the full frame ML cameras from Nikon, Sony and Canon will have at least 60 fps 4k and 10 bit and 120 fps in 1080p. So they will fullfill 99% the need of all users, but they will still retain all the other advantages of full frame camera in term of low light/resolution etc.

11 minutes ago, Yurolov said:

If Canikon knock it out of the park I don't see why anyone would consider m4/3 anymore. The Gh5 and Em1 II are already large cameras and there isn't so much to be gained in terms of size unless you are talking about telephoto lenses. The new nikon mirrorless looks to be diminutive in size so I don't think it will be too much of a consideration for people. I think panisonic and olympus either go full frame or die a slow death. Especially with full frame cameras dropping in price. 

We are seeing the same problem with the fuji and the xh1, being in practical terms more expensive than the a7iii. The thing with fuji is that their lenses are quite expensive, especially considering they are apsc lenses. For example, their 100-400 is priced equivalently to canon's superior and pro level 100-400. Their range at the long end isn't good either.    

 

 

Exactly, more so that Canon and Nikon will also have a full range of Apsc mirror-less camera that will start like Nikon line of D3300 to D7500. In fact mirrorless cameras are easier and cheaper to do as you have much less mechanical part optics etc. Nowadays you can get a Nikon full frame D750 for about $1600. The Sony A3 and comparable Nikon/Canon bodies will be about same price in two years. It will be a hard sell to sell any M43 cameras at more than 1k. 

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I think the CaNikon entry in the full frame and surely Apsc mirrorless camera market will have a big impact on Sony. They where alone in the full frame and most Apsc market, making some Canikon people switch as they had no other alternatives if they wanted full frame mirrorless. Now Sony wont get those switch anymore, secondly they will face formidable opponents who have to my opinion much better ergonomics and image quality (mainly colour science). That Nikon Z mount size might itself be a big problem to Sony, if one or the two theories behind it being to able to launch 0.9 prime lens or that the sensor can move much more for much better IBIS, they might even lose sales from Nikon for example. I am speculating here but Nikon has patented the 0.9 NOCT lens.

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24 minutes ago, Danyyyel said:

The problem with the gh5s is that it is only 10 megapixel. I mean for video it might be fantastic, but for photography it is just too low. In 3 years time max, all the full frame ML cameras from Nikon, Sony and Canon will have at least 60 fps 4k and 10 bit and 120 fps in 1080p. So they will fullfill 99% the need of all users, but they will still retain all the other advantages of full frame camera in term of low light/resolution etc.

Yes but in 3 years smaller sensor cameras like the GHx will be for 4k 120p, 12bit, maybe even raw, and 960fps in 1080. Spec-wise I think they'll always be a step ahead.

I believe the smaller sensor/m43 will always win for adaptability, IBIS, slow motion, higher bit rates etc, not to mention the gap closing on low light performance - all it takes is an optical focal reducer like a speedbooster to get a kick arse full frame (ish) camera, or use natives and instantly get incredible telephoto reach without breaking your back. This is how I currently work and its a dream. I'm a huge advocate for the m43 system despite being a Canon 5D shooter all my life and now even with an a7iii.

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4 minutes ago, 64mulford said:

Yes but in 3 years smaller sensor cameras like the GHx will be for 4k 120p, 12bit, maybe even raw, and 960fps in 1080. Spec-wise I think they'll always be a step ahead.

I believe the smaller sensor/m43 will always win for adaptability, IBIS, slow motion, higher bit rates etc, not to mention the gap closing on low light performance - all it takes is an optical focal reducer like a speedbooster to get a kick arse full frame (ish) camera, or use natives and instantly get incredible telephoto reach without breaking your back. This is how I currently work and its a dream. I'm a huge advocate for the m43 system despite being a Canon 5D shooter all my life and now even with an a7iii.

Pretty good chance there will be 8K for M43 by 2020..  smaller sensor size do have advantage on readout speed and thermal management.

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1 hour ago, newfoundmass said:

I feel like people are way too caught up on full frame. Will Panasonic and Olympus come out with a full frame camera? If they feel the market demands one, then yeah, it's inevitable. But is it required? I don't think so. I'd honestly be happy with a Super 35mm sized sensor with a M43 mount, like I have in my JVC LS300, because with full frame will inevitably come larger / heavier lenses and I'd prefer not to deal with that. 

As a M43 user I've really never felt like I was missing out too much shooting with a smaller sensor. I'm much more interested in better auto focus; if Panasonic could get it on the level of Sony or Canon I'd be extremely content. If they can come out with a FF camera that's great, too, but for my uses, it's not a requirement. 

Yeah But Sony has that crop mode in the A7 series for s35 size, APSC so you can use somewhat small lenses if you want. Those cameras are really a heck of a lot more versatile than you think. There is a reason people that have them really like them. Do they have warts, well sure but man to me they really hit a home run with them.

But sure if you want to shoot really long lenses the m4/3 is the way to go. But I don't think Sony really wanted the A7 series to go that way on using a long lens on them to start with?

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9 hours ago, Trek of Joy said:

Once the Nikon 45mp body is announced, keep an eye on used Sony bodies - I'm betting the number of a7r3's will spike, meaning good deals for bargain hunters. I've seen barely used copies on Fred Miranda for under $2400, I bet they hit $2k when pre-order fever starts on the Nikon.

If we see crazy price tumbles on the a7Smk1 then I'll be tempted, say a sub $500 body?
Already seeing them go for US$700ish $800ish

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1 hour ago, webrunner5 said:

But sure if you want to shoot really long lenses the m4/3 is the way to go. But I don't think Sony really wanted the A7 series to go that way on using a long lens on them to start with?

I’d like to see some documentation of this.

Correct me if I’m mistaken, but manufacturers like Fuji and Panasonic, for example, only rather recently released or are about to release long fast telephoto primes. And if Sony’s intent was to kill off CaNikon, longer lenses would be a must I would think. And from the reviews I’ve seen, Sony’s 400mm is a killer optic.

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6 hours ago, Tone1k said:

I'm not sure how much of this is a full frame thing though. Does Fuji now also need to go Full Frame? They seem to be going quite well in the Mirrorless market. 

I feel like it was smart of Pentax to attack the markets above and below with their APS-C mirrorless and their medium format mirrorless. 

APS-C mirrorless has the change to rule now, and in the medium term (5yrs? 10yrs?) then medium format has the chance to make a very strong showing as it becomes more affordable.

Meanwhile Fuji is dodging the war to end all wars which is going to break out now over the FF mirrorless territory.

4 hours ago, Márcio Kabke Pinheiro said:

Don't know. Sony almost abandoned their APS-C line, A6500 is kind of long in the tooth, no good APS-C lenses. Nikon and Canon could got to the same way. Fuji could be the king of APS-C format.

And a6500 is their only recent APS-C

No a5100 successor. And no pro APS-C body above the a6500

4 hours ago, Tone1k said:

Nah, Fuji has the GFX.... You know it's APC for compactness or medium format for everything else these days 😉 

Not yet. But I could see this being the future. 

The only question is if Fuji is excuting this plan too soon, and will they implement the plan well?

For instance look at the Nikon 1 system. I could imagine a world where 1" ICL and FF mirrorless from Nikon lived alongside each other. 

But a few flaws: it was "too soon" (1" performance when the Nikon 1 started was pretty bad, although modern 1" cameras like the RX100 now are not too bad) and their implementation was awful with a lack of compelling and affordable lenses to back up their cameras.

So if Fuji can survive the attack of Nikon/Canon FF mirrorless then they might be set up well for the future with the compact APS-C cameras on one side and the high performing Medium format Mirrorless on the other side. 

 

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2 hours ago, newfoundmass said:

I feel like people are way too caught up on full frame.

Not speaking for anyone else, but my imminent move to FF is motivated by getting shallow DoF from zoom lenses with good AF-C.  

This choice is important in a practical and artistic sense because my film-making is fast-paced, unplanned, and often in situations where I have little to no control, (eg, on the top deck of a tour bus when there's no spare seats and you're not allowed to stand while the bus is moving).  The images I want need to be in focus, could range from wides to tele shots, and I want the DoF to give some depth to the images.

The Sony A7III / 24-105 F4 combination that is currently the best offering for me (bring it on Canikon!) can't be beaten in one package by non-FF.  Smaller sensors need larger apertures to match DoF which are normally provided as native primes (no zoom), or with a speed-booster which dulls the AF performance.  My XC10 has good (but not great) AF, 24-240mm zoom, but doesn't have the DoF and so I am missing the 'look' I want..  a pity because it's a great camera otherwise.

In a sense I agree that people might be getting too caught up on FF - if I was missing one of these three criteria then many more options would be available to me, including the Pocket2 which looks like it will be an absolutely phenomenal piece of equipment.

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3 hours ago, 64mulford said:

I don't think Panasonic should jump on the FF bandwagon. I think their smaller sensor is their unique selling point. The GH5s sensor has proven you can squeeze high iso/low noise performance out of a smaller sensor and this is only the beginning really. I think the smaller sensor allows them to push video tech faster - like the GH5 have 4k60p, who knows what is capable in the GH6 but I think the FF cameras will always be playing catch up to the smaller sensors cameras in that regard simply because they can process that information faster. Chuck a speedbooster on and problem solved.

I'm shooting with a GH5/speedbooster XL and a new A7iii with mc-11 - both using my canon L glass. Much prefer the GH5 for video. that 10bit is amazing.

What Panasonic should be doing is keeping their m43 mount cause there is some amazing compact glass for it but do what JVC did and chuck a Super 35 sensor in there. Imagine that with a speedbooster. All the benefits of a faster, smaller sensor but full frame look.


Maybe not go for S35 (unless if doing an EVA1 MFT, please!), but at least use MAR MFT sensors more often like in the GH2 and GH5S
 

2 hours ago, newfoundmass said:

I feel like people are way too caught up on full frame. Will Panasonic and Olympus come out with a full frame camera? If they feel the market demands one, then yeah, it's inevitable. But is it required? I don't think so. I'd honestly be happy with a Super 35mm sized sensor with a M43 mount, like I have in my JVC LS300, because with full frame will inevitably come larger / heavier lenses and I'd prefer not to deal with that. 

As a M43 user I've really never felt like I was missing out too much shooting with a smaller sensor. I'm much more interested in better auto focus; if Panasonic could get it on the level of Sony or Canon I'd be extremely content. If they can come out with a FF camera that's great, too, but for my uses, it's not a requirement. 

Yes, if Panasonic launched a FF mirrorless it is highly unlikely I'd buy it any time soon. 

 

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7 hours ago, tomsemiterrific said:

Does anyone think Fuji will get into this game? I can imagine their color science in FF.

Fuji's current approach is to give you FF via a crop mode on the GFX. 

They are allegedly doing a (cheaper) rangefinder version of the GFX which if it has a similar crop mode would throw up some interesting possibilities for adapted lenses.

TechArt already has smart EF to GFX adapters so that will give you a form of FF on Fuji with a huge array of lenses. If TechArt adapted their Leica to E mount to GFX then that also opens up the possibility of AF for a huge array of manual glass on it as well.

This alleged rangefinder version could therefore be a Medium Format with Fujis own lenses (and adapted Hasselblad HC ones too), a Full Frame with Canon and Sigma Art et al lenses and a Leica M10 but with hybrid viewfinder and AF of manual M mount lenses.

For a supposed price of under £4K

That versatility could make it my desert island stills camera to be honest.

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I reckon Fuji's strategy is the longest term of anyone, it's predicting a future where full frame is the new APS-C and medium format is the default large sensor choice. You could have the full frame crop for sports at faster shooting rates and the full medium format coverage when you need extra resolution and incredible resolving power of a high-end medium format lens at F4.

I think it could get more cost effective... not as in £1000 but £3000 to compete with top-end full frame cameras.

I've been very happy with the GFX, a lot of cheap full frame lenses actually cover the medium format sensor (Contax Zeiss, Minolta, etc.) so I've saved money not needing to buy a lot of new glass, just adapters. It's my best stills camera but obviously they will need to step up video over the next few years... And I am sure they will. Medium format sensors are already doing 4K and 100MP at the same time... quite an achievement!

The TechArt adapter for Leica M to E-mount is fantastic - AF is very fast, and through Leica M adapters it still works with a range of other manual focus lenses, like the Contax lenses. I'll be doing a blog post about it soon. I should try and get hold of the Canon autofocus adapter for Fuji X mount and the GFX version too... Although autofocus isn't the biggest strength of the GFX. It's ok with the internal focus GFX zoom but with the primes it can be quite bad.

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11 hours ago, 64mulford said:

Yes but in 3 years smaller sensor cameras like the GHx will be for 4k 120p, 12bit, maybe even raw, and 960fps in 1080. Spec-wise I think they'll always be a step ahead.

I believe the smaller sensor/m43 will always win for adaptability, IBIS, slow motion, higher bit rates etc, not to mention the gap closing on low light performance - all it takes is an optical focal reducer like a speedbooster to get a kick arse full frame (ish) camera, or use natives and instantly get incredible telephoto reach without breaking your back. This is how I currently work and its a dream. I'm a huge advocate for the m43 system despite being a Canon 5D shooter all my life and now even with an a7iii.

Yep, I don't dispute that logic that smaller sensor will be easier to get higher readout thus higher frame rates etc because of heat for example. But the day the m 4/3 will do 960 fps the FF will do 480 fps, 10 bit vs 12 bit etc, all these will have diminishing returns. Again for photography, M43 is not catching up on FF, even in 3 years I cannot see a 12-14 megapixel M4/3 competing with 24-28 megapixel FF in any way because it will still be very low for photography. The Nikon D850 also has very good apsc video mode, instantly your zoom get 0.5X more. For example with a 24-120 F4 lens, instantly you have a 24-180 F4 lens which would equate to 24-180 F 2.8 or F2 in terms of M43 esthetics. The last thing is AF, will you get it with a speed booster attached. Those are some of the challengers that the M43 cameras will have to face.

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53 minutes ago, Andrew Reid said:

 

 

 

53 minutes ago, Andrew Reid said:

The TechArt adapter for Leica M to E-mount is fantastic - AF is very fast, and through Leica M adapters it still works with a range of other manual focus lenses, like the Contax lenses. I'll be doing a blog post about it soon. 

I've been shocked how good it is.

Even on longer lenses when you have to put it in the rough range manually it's still faster than doing it yourself.

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14 hours ago, Yurolov said:

If Canikon knock it out of the park I don't see why anyone would consider m4/3 anymore.

 

I will consider! :)

First - for my usage at the moment and future before approaching extremely close Oscar level of ambition, I'm tired of clumsy gimbals and other instruments that make me even more like scarecrow than I really am (although it seems impossible). With UW lens and IBIS of Olympus and GH5 i achieved even side-running shots usable. If next generation of IBIS would be even better, and front-running looks the same, it will be unbelievable - only lack of imagination and bad destiny will be your enemy for moving shots. I. e. - just the same problems as in life in general...

Second - Voigtlanders. That is the area I lost pretty much time - conclusion: I'm not sure that people know how small are Voigts in proportion with equally capable high-end FF lenses. And how powerful at all aspects are these lenses for video usage (heavenly mellow rendition and crystal crispness at the most important f1.6-2.4 range, ingenious balance of virtues/compromises  to provide usable f0.95/T1.1 with unique formula - i. e. where sharpness is located - for every focal length, and above all - rendition again, but this time no heavenly, but submarine).

Third - Blackmagic to play with raw as mighty therapy/consolation because of my total lacking of gift for painting.

Four - it so funny to see how all hardcore FF dark trumpeters of inevitable m43 death occupied with comments, expectation and calculations the longest thread in history - BMPPC 4k.

Six - I'm still waiting complete review of Oly Em1 mk2 by Andrew Reid.

Five - I like to show that I've learned something important in this forum, so I'll be gratefully in line with @webrunner5 and say: Best drugs always come in small doze!

 

 

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22 hours ago, Trek of Joy said:

Canon bashing is a sport here, but I've said it all along, a good mirrorless offering from CaNikon will put a big dent in Sony's sales.

My personal feeling is that I dont think things are going to pan out like this. The reason being, I dont think mirrorless is a 'zero sum game' - Canikon providing strong mirrorless offerings will probably raise awareness and sales for the whole mirrorless market and might even result in quite a boost for the whole ILC market.

It isnt difficult to imagine that mirrorless will make up 75% of the market in 5 years and that probably wont be bad news for Sony sales. A strong showing by Canikon should lead to a wealth of new mirrorless lenses at affordable prices from the likes of Tamron and Sigma. And strong competition should lead to even more aggressive pricing of mirrorless bodies.

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