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Robert Collins

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Everything posted by Robert Collins

  1. Yes, sunk cost fallacy. Realistically, your crowd in 'crowd financing' is self isolating at the moment. Even those with disposable income will likely be saving it in the current uncertainty. And if they are looking to invest (and or take risk) there are plenty of stocks that are off 40% in the last month.
  2. I get that totally. But what I mean by behind the curve is - why has it taken the country so long to start testing people in large numbers? We have known about this virus for quite some time. I live in a 2nd world country - Thailand - but it has been possible for anyone to get a test here, if needed, for well over a month....
  3. It does appear to me that the US has been well behind the curve on this virus all along which is disappointing given the amount of advance warning they had. Today the US announced 1823 new cases which is a 40% increase in cases from the day before (the largest percentage increase of any country.) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Hopefully they will get things back under control quickly...
  4. Have you considered the 'worst case' scenario? Well it turns out that the NHS in the UK have modeled the worst case. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised Under this scenario it is assumed that 80% of the UK's population contract coronavirus over the course of the next year. According to Chris Whitty the UK's Chief Medical Officer this could lead to 7.9m people being hospitalized and 318,000 deaths. Whilst this figure sounds (and is) horrendous it needs to be put in perspective. In 2018 there were 541,000 deaths in the UK - of which cancer was the most common cause with 150,000.
  5. Well on a more positive note. We can see from China and S.Korea that when you tackle the problem head on with tests and restrictions you do seem to get it under control within a month to 6 weeks - hopefully numbers in Italy will start to come down. Also a major panic in the asset markets, should mean we get some great investment opportunities for those that have some cash....
  6. There is minor panic here in Bangkok. Most people are wearing masks (despite the fact that they are effectively useless for preventing you catching Coronavirus). The schools have all been shut. My 6 year old son had to self-quarantine for 14 days when he returned from a holiday in Japan. I had dinner with a friend who has a birds nest business and in February sales were down over 90% compared to January. (In China, car sales are down 83% for the first two months (YOY)). And this is despite the fact that Thailand has only had 40 cases of Coronavirus so far (mostly Chinese tourists visiting during Chinese New Year.) I doubt a Coronavirus could spread here with temperatures in the mid 80s (possibly explains why there are virtually no cases in India or Africa.) But these worries/concerns/panics tend to be self-perpetuating - easy to stoke and slow to dissipate. The economic impact in Asia is going to be quite dramatic and I expect everyone of us is going to be impacted in one way or another.
  7. I rather suspect the simple answer to this dichotomy is that 'youtuber, actor, singer, programmer' etc were not 'career/job' options in their survey...
  8. For me Portrait of a Lady on Fire’ should definitely have been nominated for cinematography.
  9. Since Tony and Chelsea switched to Sony for stills (with the A7r4) they have been using the EOS-R for video (whilst also still using the GH5 and Blackmagic.) He posted a video about it about a week ago. That being said - the fact that they are using different cameras for stills and video obviously speaks volumes about what they feel about Sony's video capabilities. Sony has absolutely nailed stills photography (particularly autofocus) and seems to have got very lazy with the video side.
  10. Well in the quote from you - you mention 'Sony photographers' so in a sense I can. Sony's success is really built around 'photographers' rather than videographers as I see it. Clearly for video guys out of camera color is way more important. But my real point is this. I dont think there are swathes of delusional Sony users out there believing that Sony's color is great much in the same way as I dont think their are swathes of Panasonic users out there thinking their cameras have great autofocus.
  11. The 'brand loyalty' argument is both naive and simplistic. Afterall, almost by definition, a Sony user has 'switched' from another brand over the past 5 years. The fact is that Sony has a lot of strengths for photography especially mirrorless - it just so happens that 'color' isnt one of them. Also straight out of camera color isnt that important to most photographers as with raw it is always something that you can easily adjust in post. And for those that straight out of camera color is important - they probably arent using Sony. My feeling with Sony though is that their color problems are mostly to do with their 'auto white balance'....
  12. I agree that there are people out there making a ton of money from youtube (and that they probably understate how much they are actually making.) The problem though with youtube is that people 'underestimate' the difficulty of becoming a successful youtuber. We all live in our own youtube bubbles where our 'feed' essentially consists of videos from youtubers who have already made it in some form or another and we dont see the millions who dont in any way make it. Ultimately youtube is a business everyone wants to do and for which the only barrier to entry is the cost of a smartphone. From that perspective it is probably the most competitive business in the world.
  13. Youtube. Seems that people think of little else;;;; https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4532266/75-cent-children-want-YouTubers-vloggers.html
  14. IF the rumored specs are true, this looks to be a rather odd release from Canon. There doesnt appear to be any major improvement in the specs for stills - basically the same frame rate, resolution and processors as the 1DX mkii. There has been a bump in the video specs but the 1DX is inherently a flagship stills camera.
  15. Although it does begin to raise the question of how many pixels on a smaller sensor is too much. The diffraction limit on a 41mp M43 sensor is f4.6.
  16. This is quite exciting.... I like the fact that Sony has finally decided to compromise the size for better thermals. Also they seem to have prioritized bit rate (hopefully) and frame rate over 6k or 8k....
  17. I had a very similar problem with a T5 a couple of months ago (admittedly when ipadOS was in beta). Ipad wrote to the T5 but then neither my PC or laptop would recognize the drive. The data wasnt critical so I reformatted the drive and it was ok. Thought it might be an Apple/Windows problem. The Gnarbox 2 is a great piece of kit by the way.
  18. I used to have the A7rii a while back but dont have it anymore so dont take what I say as gospel. Your problem is very 'unlikely' to be related to the card you are using. The problem is most likely related to the camera itself. The A7rii only has a camera to SD card write speed of a maximum of 36 MB/s. https://www.cameramemoryspeed.com/sony-a7r-ii/sd-card-comparison/ Given that an uncompressed raw file is 83MB, you are unlikely to be able to capture shots with a 1 second interval. Switching to compressed raw might help but then the camera needs some time to 'compress' the raw. Obviously jpegs would be more effective but I still dont know if it is possible. You can see from Sony's own timelapse app for the A7rii they add a caveat.... https://www.playmemoriescameraapps.com/portal/usbdetail.php?eid=IS9104-NPIA09014_00-000003 '*Since the file size of the image is large, the [Interval] may be longer than the set value when shooting in uncompressed RAW format.'
  19. According to Phillip Bloom who is testing Lumafusion 2.1, it should be released 'any day now'. I doubt it will have the changes you want but it will definitely have exporting xml for integration with Premiere and FCP.
  20. The gnarbox 2 is the real deal when it comes to this... (had it a few weeks) As SD card back up it is 'ok fast' - seems to match it 75MB/s claims - also does a checksum to verify the back up - lets you backup to the Gnarbox and an external SSD simultaneously. Integration with Lumafusion, Lightroom CC, Photo Mechanic (via the selects app) is spot on. Wifi transfer is fast and it lets you do usb-c transfer too (over 200MB/s on my pc.) You can do in and out points straight from the Gnarbox in Lumafusion and then it only imports the in/out footage. Wish there was better integration with Premiere Pro. Yes, it is expensive but way better than some of the alternatives I have wasted money on (Gnarbox 1/WD passport pro).
  21. This is a really interesting comment especially amongst a Group of people that really actually respect intellectual property rights (my background is more 'property is theft'). But surely the whole point of Colonel Saunders (KFC) is that his 'recipe' is a big 'secret' because you cant patent a 'recipe'. What you need for a patent is an 'individual ingredient' and while redescribing a bayer array might sound like one it clearly isnt...
  22. https://www.dpreview.com/news/3299480531/canon-s-dpp-express-app-for-ipad-will-soon-require-a-monthly-subscription-plan Amazing!!
  23. I dont see why inherently - afterall a video camera is essentially a 'high fps' 'stills camera'. The existing A9 shoots approximately '6k' 'stills' in 14 bit raw at 20 fps - which doesnt seem that far from a 'high quality' video camera and the stacked sensor is a bonus....
  24. I think there is a lot of potential to 'merge' the A7s series and the A9 series. People basically want the same thing - high frame rates, not so many pixels. The stacked sensor supports silent shooting without rolling shutter or video without rolling shutter (potentially). Both sports photographers and video enthusiasts like/accept a bigger body (with sports photography it better balances the huge lenses.) So the A9ii launch might be interesting.
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