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COVID19 Kibosh


fuzzynormal
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In my country, the prime minister is so dumb he's wondering about the people who went to beach yesterday like it's none of his business, so he tends to let the schools open because there are already many closed by themselves, he says. Also because the parents have no idea where to leave the children, authorities second the hierarchy and major clown. Phew.

 

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31 minutes ago, Emanuel said:

More 33% (78) in Portugal as of now... Numbers are outdated in less than hours.

Only to realize how lethal this is... from the 4000 people working (NOT total of infected!) in the Central Hospital in Wuhan, 230 already died. Which means the 0,02% rate (in Italy) as number of contaminated out of the total population occurs because the virus is not widely spread yet. When it is, the number of death rate increases for higher than 10%. Imagine if the virus reaches every regions of the whole planet, we can have hundreds of millions of casualties. We all hope this may be stopped before, of course!

This is the most reliable updated source I've found on topic:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Percentages based on under-testing (under-sampling) will lead to seemingly-higher and woefully-inaccurate death rates. Case-in-point, here in the U.S. there is a shameful lack of testing kits available...

Coronavirus tests: COVID-19 kit component shortage slows US response:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2020/03/11/coronavirus-covid-19-response-hurt-by-shortage-testing-components/5013586002/

Coronavirus Probe at California Nursing Home Slowed by Shortage of Test Kits - The New York Times:

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03/11/us/11reuters-health-coronavirus-california.html

...and, as reported here in my home state just two days prior to this post, there exists only 75,000 test kits for the whole of the U.S. which are currently being rationed out for hospitalized symptomatic-or-suspected-contact patients...

What you need to know to get coronavirus, COVID-19, test in New York:

https://www.lohud.com/story/news/health/2020/03/09/what-you-need-know-get-coronavirus-covid-19-test-new-york/5001885002/

 

Of note: the current total global reported (as of this post's writing) cases are 125,518 and 4.617 death yielding a death rate of ~3.68%...again, this number is based on global under-testing (under-sampling) of those infected and this number does not reflect those tested that turned out negative...

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC): COVID-19:

https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/COVID-19.html

____________________________

To get back on-topic to the OP...I received notification from my college (SUNY) that Spring Break has been extended a week and that classes will resume March 23 via remote learning...looks like I'll be learning FCPX from the comfort of my living room! :\

 

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27 minutes ago, Jimmy G said:

Percentages based on under-testing (under-sampling) will lead to seemingly-higher and woefully-inaccurate death rates.

(...)

Of note: the current total global reported (as of this post's writing) cases are 125,518 and 4.617 death yielding a death rate of ~3.68%...again, this number is based on global under-testing (under-sampling) of those infected and this number does not reflect those tested that turned out negative...

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC): COVID-19:

https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/COVID-19.html

Indeed, so please leave the OUTDATED stats from European institutions alone, they're as slow to update their numbers as their counterparts to slow down the virus instead...

Again take a look here exactly in that link you've just quoted now but didn't mind to check the updated numbers 'as of your post's writing' as you say:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

image.png.dc5ae2fcbe0e97598d587bc1abdc8895.png

 

 

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26 minutes ago, Emanuel said:

Indeed, so please leave the OUTDATED stats from European institutions alone, they're as slow as their counterparts to slow down the virus instead...

Again take a look here exactly in that link you've just posted now but didn't mind to check the numbers:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

image.thumb.png.0d7f10af38c3f6d2b22aba7eaafb975a.png

Using your link's above posted data of 4749 ÷ 129,604 yields a mortality rate of ~3.66%, slightly updated numbers but yielding the same statistical result. Again, both results based on global under-sampling.

Your link's Mortality Rate link...

Coronavirus Mortality Rate (COVID-19) - Worldometer:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

...routes to a report from March 3rd with the WHO reporting a mortality rate of 3.4%.

Edit: Just to follow up on that WHO report, from Reuters' today regarding how to better understand such under-sampling and the death rates based thereon...

Why COVID-19 'Death Rates' Are Not What They Seem | World News | US News:

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-03-12/why-covid-19-death-rates-are-not-what-they-seem

 

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5 minutes ago, Jimmy G said:

Using your link's above posted data of 4749 ÷ 129,604 yields a mortality rate of ~3.66%, slightly updated numbers but yielding the same statistical result. Again, both results based on global under-sampling.

Your link's Mortality Rate link...

Coronavirus Mortality Rate (COVID-19) - Worldometer:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

...routes to a report from March 3rd with the WHO reporting a mortality rate of 3.4%.

 

No big deal : ) just a chance to make a point: I am mad with European institutions. They should be blamed for thousands of casualties here in Europe and many to come in the rest of the world...

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22 minutes ago, Jimmy G said:

Using your link's above posted data of 4749 ÷ 129,604 yields a mortality rate of ~3.66%, slightly updated numbers but yielding the same statistical result. Again, both results based on global under-sampling.

Your link's Mortality Rate link...

Coronavirus Mortality Rate (COVID-19) - Worldometer:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

...routes to a report from March 3rd with the WHO reporting a mortality rate of 3.4%.

Edit: Just to follow up on that WHO report, from Reuters' today regarding how to better understand such under-sampling and the death rates based thereon...

Why COVID-19 'Death Rates' Are Not What They Seem | World News | US News:

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-03-12/why-covid-19-death-rates-are-not-what-they-seem

 

I would suggest that the below numbers from that link are more indicative of the current death rate and of what is yet to come from those currently afflicted.

 

Capture.PNG

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21 minutes ago, hoodlum said:

I would suggest that the below numbers from that link are more indicative of the current death rate and of what is yet to come from those currently afflicted.

 

Capture.PNG

Comparing Closed Cases is an even-worse examination of the data points (provided at the same link), if one scrolls down that page one will see that the Active Cases # tally has been omitted from your posted image (from the same page) tallies/computations.

 

However, there is one instance on that list that will qualify as a closed case study when all is said and done, Diamond Princess...

1266148163_Screenshot2020-03-12at11_45_58AM.png.af70937c32788833e16ba8cd0ae5fd7f.png

 

...696 Total cases with 7 deaths, 325 Recovered, 364 Active, 32 Serious/Critical (as of this posted image above). Worst-case scenario that all of the 32 Serious Cases turn fatal would bring the total deaths to 39 yielding a calculable Death Rate of 5.6% for that specific population (however, ages and health unknown). With a recovery rate of 50% for that group the total would be 23 Total Deaths, yielding a Mortality Rate of 3.3%. And if the recovery rate for that group is 75% the Total Deaths come in at 15 yielding a Rate of 2.1%, again, patient ages and health prior to infection would yield more-informative statistical analysis.

Hope that helps.

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Here in Italy we are in an almost total lockdown. Shops closed, pubs closed, schools closed, church service reduced, public events canceled, sporting events canceled, public transport reduced and so on. And this until April at least. We even need a valid reason to go outside in case the police ask (and they do), with valid reasons being work, health problems, purchase of food, visiting a sick relative, going back home and things like these. I have never seen my country so empty. You really do see not many people around, which by Italian standars is quite strange. You can also see people going around with a mask, which has never been a habit here, and people not giving a hug and a kiss when meeting each other, which instead has always being a common Italian habit.

I also think that this virus is still a flu, even though quite a strong one. And being a flu (that is low mortality, high diffusion), I guess the number of people being infected is way more than the number found with the test. The test doesn't give you a real number of total cases, just the number you found and a rough estimate on the population. Probably there are many people who got infected but never got sick, and others that, even if sick , were just having minor symptoms, like the ones normally associated to a flu or a cold. Otherwise it's hard to explain such an explosion of cases in the past 10 days.

Other European countries are just 2 weeks behind us and should lock everything down now, not in two more weeks. Spain is having a surge in cases now, 3000 already with a population half the Italian one in a country twice as big. This virus is not so dangerous by itself if you are not already weak  for other reasons (age, cancer, hearth problems, diabetes, etc.) but it can have a strong impact on the healthcare system.

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27 minutes ago, 1Ale82 said:

Otherwise it's hard to explain such an explosion of cases in the past 10 days.

Yeah, once organizations start counting numbers, the numbers increase.  A lot of that is simply them just paying close attention.  

Also, it's easy to double numbers when you start with a low number to begin with, so that sort of rhetoric and headlines regarding "Numbers Double!" of the whole thing is to be expected.  

Still, there's no confidence here in the States that we'll ever have an accurate estimation regarding confirmed cases.  Centers for Disease Control and Prevention under orders from the executive branch stopped publicly disclosing the number of Americans who have been tested, so our government is once again in "cover-our-asses" mode rather than trying to legitimately help. i.e.:  https://youtu.be/x_UuV5v34x0

My understanding is that the various shut downs for COVID are basically an attempt to slow the inevitable spread so that hospitals do not get overwhelmed treating the frail and infirm that get hit with the virus.  They're trying to avoid triage.

 

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5 minutes ago, fuzzynormal said:

Still, there's no confidence here in the States

 

I think one major problem for you guys in the states is that there is no public healthcare system. Here in Europe we have one in basically every country, from Italy to France, Denmark or else. And being a public service, besides helping anyone who needs care, it can also hunt down the threat. We are close to 100000 tests done and doing the proportion with the population number, it would equal to about 500000 tests for the US. For example in one small town near Venezia with an unusual high contentration of covid19 cases, the entire population had the test done and after the quarantine and the treatment for the most critical situations, the situation improved a lot.

 

19 minutes ago, fuzzynormal said:

They're trying to avoid triage.

Triage has been included in the emergency guidelines for hospitals over here, as a last resort.

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1 hour ago, 1Ale82 said:

in one small town near Venezia with an unusual high contentration of covid19 cases, the entire population had the test done

Here our CDC told Congress this week that insufficient federal investment in public health has impaired its ability to respond to the coronavirus pandemic.  As typical in the USA, underfunding is common.  

All executive administrations have to cope with some sort of natural problem eventually.  Unfortunately, because the way many of our citizens have deferred to affluent people, we're always behind the curve when disaster hits across the socioeconomic spectrum. 

Regardless, those in power in government can often make a bad problem actively worse because they're so ideologically stubborn, self-centered, or just flat out incompetent.

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22 minutes ago, fuzzynormal said:

Regardless, those in power in government can often make a bad problem actively worse because they're so ideologically stubborn, self-centered, or just flat out incompetent.

Here in Italy it's also true. For example now our healthcare system is working close to maximum capacity in most regions and in some areas with the most covid19 cases is working beyond its maximum capacity, which means nurses working 10-12 hours instead of 8, lack of intensive care beds, etc. And part of the problem with this virus is that for years the healthcare system has been weakened because the political religion was and still is "privatization, austerity and liberalism are better" with many public services being given away to the private sector a small bite at a time.

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1 hour ago, 1Ale82 said:

I think one major problem for you guys in the states is that there is no public healthcare system.

But yet, Europe have more cases and deaths than the USA which proactively closed it's borders.  Also, guess which country will come up with the vaccine first?  If history is to be our guide, it will be the USA... while the Europeans once again wait in line hand in hat saying "can we have some of that?" once the hard work has been done.

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10 minutes ago, eleison said:

But yet, Europe have more cases and deaths than the USA which proactively closed it's borders.  Also, guess which country will come up with the vaccine first?  If history is to be our guide, it will be the USA... while the Europeans once again wait in line hand in hat saying "can we have some of that?" once the hard work has been done.

Woof

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3 hours ago, 1Ale82 said:

I think one major problem for you guys in the states is that there is no public healthcare system. Here in Europe we have one in basically every country, from Italy to France, Denmark or else. And being a public service, besides helping anyone who needs care, it can also hunt down the threat. We are close to 100000 tests done and doing the proportion with the population number, it would equal to about 500000 tests for the US. For example in one small town near Venezia with an unusual high concentration of covid19 cases, the entire population had the test done and after the quarantine and the treatment for the most critical situations, the situation improved a lot.

It will be interesting to compare how the different health systems respond.  There could be a higher percentage of non-reported case in the US if people cannot afford to go to a clinic or hospital as it seems that  the government hasn't reacted quick enough to setup the necessary infrastructure for testing.  This will lead to further spreading of the virus.

I live in the largest province in Canada and they will be closing all schools for the next 3 weeks.  I expect the rest of Canada to implement something similar over the next couple of days.

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