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Andrew Reid

Canon rush to reassure investors as camera profits plunge 64%

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19 minutes ago, Michi said:

I absolutely agree with you. But I don‘t think this contradicts what I said .

My point is that putting better video specs into Cameras with stills oriented form and ergonomics will not compensate for the sales lost to smartphones. The cake got bigger, but the slice for MILCs and DSLRs is getting proportionally smaller. And from my POV it’s not because of technical reasons. Just like offering 96kHz 24bit WAVE support could not turn around the decline in sales of portable music players (not the best comparsion but you get my Point).

Our society has been trending hard toward more convenience. Your phone is now your camera, computer, book, music player, and communication tool. If people can get fair quality in a more convenient method, many people will take the convenient option over the higher quality option. People simply can't be bothered to carry an extra device, since the cell phones produce fair images under good conditions. The ebook reader has been trashed by phones too. It isn't just cameras.

The convenience thing is accelerating too. I know people that insist that their car have keyless entry and won't consider a car without out it. *Really*? You are too lazy to take out your key and put it in the ignition? For a lot of people, yep. 

Until Canon (and the other camera companies) embrace this trend, they are going to experience pain. I know they could fully integrate their cameras into a phone centered world if they tried. Why doesn't my DSLR automatically tie to my phone and upload my images to the cloud? (bandwidth, storage space) Why doesn't it allow live remote view and control from my phone? Why can't I go live straight from my SLR instead of needing an encoder? There are many other useful things that they could do that would make it a more valuable tool by integrating. (I know that some cams have some of these features already, but they could do so much more if they had this as their focus).

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EOSHD Pro Color for Sony cameras EOSHD Pro LOG for Sony CamerasEOSHD C-LOG and Film Profiles for All Canon DSLRs
12 hours ago, drm said:

Japan has an even more serious problem... demographics. If you look at the demographics in Japan (and other "rich" countries), the demographics are terrifying for the longer term business horizon. Japan overall is aging quickly. Over 28% of the population is older than 65,  the avg. number of children per woman is 1.4, and they are having 400k more deaths than births each year. This has resulted in big labor shortages, with it being reported that there are about 1.6 vacancies for each applicant. They are also not keen on the idea of fixing their demographic problem via immigration, as some of the other wealthy countries are trying (I don't want to start a rukus, but the immigration route is fraught with peril). This is playing out to a lesser extent in the other "wealthy" countries as well.

So, the country is facing both market and product problems. It really will take some very clever moves to survive. I suggest that people be on the lookout for a small company that innovates. These are the times where a new Microsoft can be born.

I can relate to this situation in Japan.  As a U.S. citizen permanent resident of Japan for half my life now,  the population is in a decline and increasingly they need to import foreign labor more then ever before.  Personally I don't like it as with the influx of foreigners from near and far especially not knowing much at all about Japanese society and culture, I feel there is going to be similar problems with demographics in Japan as there are with middle easterners moving into European countries and the U.S. having it's demographic issues with Central / South American countries.  On a more positive note though, fewer people equates to a better quality of life and less impact on resrouces, at least in theory. 

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ALL dedicated camera companies are in trouble.     Canon just show it more because of their aging sensor tech.

Each month, the reason for dedicated cameras gets less and less.

I still want proper cameras because I am anti social and hardly need a mobile phone but I can see the pace of phone camera progress Is light years faster than "normal" camera progress.

Things like low light ability and specialty lenses (EG tilt shift, macro, long lenses and ultra wides) still have an advantage for cameras over phones but even some of those advantages are being overcome for phones.

Give it a few years and it will be more than Canon in trouble as the market will simply not be big enough other than some very good (and very expensive) gear sold in small numbers.

When a phone CAN do what my 17mm tilt shift or 150 2.8 macro or 300 2.8 or even my superzoom P&S can do (and they will at some point), the gfame will be over.

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Most people on here act like everyone in the world is like us. I bet "we" don't represent 0.5% of the people buying all this stuff from Canon, Sony, on and on. And I would bet in the last 5 years 50% of the Rest of the people have switched to Smartphones. And more and more will do so since these newer ones have multiple cameras in them. That was half the reason people didn't want to ditch the cheap DSLR was some kind of Tele lens. Now that stuff is here in Phones.

I have no clue how any of these company's down the road are going to sell their wares as they say. That is not counting the pressure say the Osmo Pocket, Osmo Action, GoPro has put on "real" cameras as of late. They are doomed I think. Then there is the PK4 for peanuts. Talk about pressure. If you pay 5995 for a new Canon 1DX mk III you are getting Really Screwed. I doubt it cost 6 times as much money to make a 1DX. They have used the same basic body for like 10 years. 30 Years if you go back to the EOS-1N RS film era.

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The reality is, good hybrid cameras is what consumers are looking for now and for the foreseeable future. 

Although everyone doesn’t need proper 4K, that plus video autofocus are features that sells cameras and Canon does not have a DSLR(besides 1Dx II), EOS-M, EOS-R or P&S  with proper 4K and DPAF.

If Canon would’ve ridden the wave from the market that they accidentally created with the 5DII, they probably would’ve monopolized the prosumer and consumer camera market. Just image a competitively spec’d C100, 5DIII, 7DII and/or EOS-M with DPAF and 4K. The A7 series, Fuji X series and the GH series would’ve had a very hard time poaching Canon users and new to market customers. Although Nikon was late to the game, at least they’re making a valiant effort.

My 1DX II has been sitting on the sidelines ever since I got the X-T3 and now I have my eye on the GFX series. 

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10 hours ago, tokyojerry said:

I can relate to this situation in Japan.  As a U.S. citizen permanent resident of Japan for half my life now,  the population is in a decline and increasingly they need to import foreign labor more then ever before.  Personally I don't like it as with the influx of foreigners from near and far especially not knowing much at all about Japanese society and culture, I feel there is going to be similar problems with demographics in Japan as there are with middle easterners moving into European countries and the U.S. having it's demographic issues with Central / South American countries.  On a more positive note though, fewer people equates to a better quality of life and less impact on resrouces, at least in theory. 

I suggest A.I will solve the labour problems!

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19 minutes ago, Andrew Reid said:

I suggest A.I will solve the labour problems!

LOL...Andrew, you are a comedian too :) 

I don't think that I have mentioned this on here, but I have a Ph.D. in Finance & was a Finance professor for many years. In addition to my media company, I teach people how to raise capital and grow their businesses through innovation and strategy.

I have long said that automation (robots, AI, etc.) is going to devastate certain portions of the job market, just like smartphones hit the camera markets, but many times worse. There are many industries where a person just won't be able to work when automation gets going. A current example is the push for $15/hr restaurant workers in the U.S., which just means there will be more machines & less workers (see the kiosks at McDonalds & self checkouts at Walmart, etc.). In the legal field, computer programs are already able to analyze documents in ways that humans simply can't. Businesses can already purchase Baxter, which is a ~$20k robot that you can show a task and he will repeat it (think assembly line) for a rough cost of $3/hr. The A.I. revolution is going to cause massive upheaval in society over the next 50 yrs. 

If you want a vision of the future, just look at the conditions today in Chicago, Baltimore, and other cities where the manufacturing jobs all left. When the service jobs leave, what's left? Mad Max.

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17 minutes ago, drm said:

LOL...Andrew, you are a comedian too :) 

I don't think that I have mentioned this on here, but I have a Ph.D. in Finance & was a Finance professor for many years. In addition to my media company, I teach people how to raise capital and grow their businesses through innovation and strategy.

I have long said that automation (robots, AI, etc.) is going to devastate certain portions of the job market, just like smartphones hit the camera markets, but many times worse. There are many industries where a person just won't be able to work when automation gets going. A current example is the push for $15/hr restaurant workers in the U.S., which just means there will be more machines & less workers (see the kiosks at McDonalds & self checkouts at Walmart, etc.). In the legal field, computer programs are already able to analyze documents in ways that humans simply can't. Businesses can already purchase Baxter, which is a ~$20k robot that you can show a task and he will repeat it (think assembly line) for a rough cost of $3/hr. The A.I. revolution is going to cause massive upheaval in society over the next 50 yrs. 

If you want a vision of the future, just look at the conditions today in Chicago, Baltimore, and other cities where the manufacturing jobs all left. When the service jobs leave, what's left? Mad Max.

Bring it on! 15 hours work per week is my dream!

Humans are not supposed to work 10-12 hours per day (+ an hour or two go and come back). 

Here, all the TV jobs are 10-12 hours, and in some productions it is even more. Most (almost all) of them do not even pay overtime.

Everyone points out the negatives, but constructing machines to do the repetitive shitty jobs is a huge opportunity for the networked humanity to achieve great things (like explore other systems and colonize space e.t.c).

Do we really need people working at McDonalds and Walmart? Is this what Aristotle, DaVinci, Nietzsche, Sagan dreamed of humanity?

I say, bring in the robots, until they revolt, and kill all of us, of course...

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25 minutes ago, drm said:

LOL...Andrew, you are a comedian too :) 

I don't think that I have mentioned this on here, but I have a Ph.D. in Finance & was a Finance professor for many years. In addition to my media company, I teach people how to raise capital and grow their businesses through innovation and strategy.

I have long said that automation (robots, AI, etc.) is going to devastate certain portions of the job market, just like smartphones hit the camera markets, but many times worse. There are many industries where a person just won't be able to work when automation gets going. A current example is the push for $15/hr restaurant workers in the U.S., which just means there will be more machines & less workers (see the kiosks at McDonalds & self checkouts at Walmart, etc.). In the legal field, computer programs are already able to analyze documents in ways that humans simply can't. Businesses can already purchase Baxter, which is a ~$20k robot that you can show a task and he will repeat it (think assembly line) for a rough cost of $3/hr. The A.I. revolution is going to cause massive upheaval in society over the next 50 yrs. 

If you want a vision of the future, just look at the conditions today in Chicago, Baltimore, and other cities where the manufacturing jobs all left. When the service jobs leave, what's left? Mad Max.

Think that is not the likely outcome for Japan, which still has a strong social fabric.

In the US, the destruction of much of the black middle class thanks to the mass foreclosures during the 2008 banking crisis has shredded that fabric. Conditions in Baltimore etc reflect that.

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6 minutes ago, Kisaha said:

Bring it on! 15 hours work per week is my dream!

Humans are not supposed to work 10-12 hours per day (+ an hour or two go and come back). 

Here, all the TV jobs are 10-12 hours, and in some productions it is even more. Most (almost all) of them do not even pay overtime.

Everyone points out the negatives, but constructing machines to do the repetitive shitty jobs is a huge opportunity for the networked humanity to achieve great things (like explore other systems and colonize space e.t.c).

Do we really need people working at McDonalds and Walmart? Is this what Aristotle, DaVinci, Nietzsche, Sagan dreamed of humanity?

I say, bring in the robots, until they revolt, and kill all of us, of course...

I agree that there is an opportunity for an improved quality of life if most of the repetitive jobs were handled by automation. It is the change over period that concerns me.

That glimmer of hope is what prevents me from moving to a cabin in the Montana wilderness. :grin: Fortunately, most of these things are very slow, so you can prepare.

The moral of the story for me is don't plan a career in an field where automation is coming, unless you plan on creating or repairing the automation ;) 

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I see no way all of this is going to work out in the future. A 1/3 or more people's jobs are just going to be totally eliminated. And of people only that want to work 32 hours or less a week they are just not going to make the same money they made at 40, or 40+ hours. Company's are not a charity organization. And it cost moeny to buy and maintain AI machines. 

I see it going back to the Nobles, Surfs days. I think the middle class is just going to be eliminated in the future, just like it was in the past. Just no place for them. You will either be damn rich or a peon. The Government is not going to be able to have half their countries or more on the Dole.

Socialism doesn't work now, what will it be with AI and Robots, it would just completely collapse. So no good way out. And don't give me people will design and build Robots for a living. Hell the Robots will design and build Robots. That is what will happen. People overall are undependable creatures over the years. A God Send to get rid of in a company. No benefits, or retirement to pay. No late, or sick days. No vacation pay. A company dream to get rid of. Just tons of Robots purring along 24/7. No piss and moaning. Total Bliss.

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2 hours ago, Kisaha said:

Bring it on! 15 hours work per week is my dream!

Same here, I want a future where everyone works a tiny bit, and spends the rest of their time of stuff they love. Problem is, a company would rather hide 1 person working 60 hrs/wk than 4 people working 15 hrs/wk. If you're that 1 person, great, you'll get a raise. But the other 3 are out of luck. On our current path in the US, automation and efficiency will hurt a lot of people while driving up GDP and corporate profits.

1 hour ago, webrunner5 said:

No benefits, or retirement to pay. No late, or sick days. No vacation pay. A company dream to get rid of. Just tons of Robots purring along 24/7. No piss and moaning. Total Bliss.

The irony is that in the long run, this will be bad for those same companies, because people won't have money to pay for their products. The economy requires that money circulate. If it collects in one place, everything collapses, even the person holding all the money.

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11 minutes ago, KnightsFan said:

The irony is that in the long run, this will be bad for those same companies, because people won't have money to pay for their products. The economy requires that money circulate. If it collects in one place, everything collapses, even the person holding all the money.

Well like a friend of mine says, I guess everyone down the road will be delivering Pizzas to each other lol. I have no clue why all the company's thought you could move everything to China and Mexico and figure people here in the USA would have the money to buy the stuff in the long run. Man the Shareholders meeting and the Stock Market will be the death of us all. Certainly no Common Sense involved in the decisions that's for sure. It's All about the Money. Always has been.

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2 hours ago, webrunner5 said:

I see no way all of this is going to work out in the future. A 1/3 or more people's jobs are just going to be totally eliminated. And of people only that want to work 32 hours or less a week they are just not going to make the same money they made at 40, or 40+ hours. Company's are not a charity organization. And it cost moeny to buy and maintain AI machines. 

 Not only that; population and life expectancy will sky rocketed in the next 50 years. Nigeria will be nearing a billion people and Africa in total will be second continent in population!

So, they won't be any jobs anyway!

24 minutes ago, KnightsFan said:

The irony is that in the long run, this will be bad for those same companies, because people won't have money to pay for their products. The economy requires that money circulate. If it collects in one place, everything collapses, even the person holding all the money.

I trust good ol'capitalism. They need customers for products and services.

4 hours!

https://theweek.com/articles/696644/why-should-work-4-hours-day-according-science

3 hours!

https://bigthink.com/big-think-books/vicki-robin-joe-dominguez-your-money-or-your-life

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Yeah family unity and neighborhood enjoyment has went to shit with the 40 hour a week crap, And for no real gain in the long run, that is the sad part.

Old Man Tip. Buy a good damn sailboat and tie it up to a Buoy in the Harbor, and be out of debt and have one hell of a wonderful view for either free or peanuts. Enjoy life.

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40 minutes ago, Robert Collins said:

Apparently over half of youngsters want to be youtubers/vloggers...

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3617062/children-turn-backs-on-traditional-careers-in-favour-of-internet-fame-study-finds/

So presumably half the world will be youtubers and the other half will spend their time watching youtube...

Wow, that was a lot more than I expected and 100% supports my comment above.

14% also said Filmmaker.

67% is a possible camera buyer.

I can see a few P4K squeezed there among camera phones and Osmos.

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