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Damphousse

N. and S. America mirrorless sales plummet 47%

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DSLR sales are down 12.4% in the Americas... but the real headline number is mirrorless sales have tanked by almost 47%!

 

 

Just looking at the Americas (mostly) USA, DSLR sales are down by 12.4%, but mirrorless camera sales are down by 46.9%.

 

http://www.bobatkins.com/photography/decline_of_the_DSLR.html

 

I got that quote and those figures from Bob Atkins' site.  I have been going to his site for years for insightful reviews of photographic equipment.  It was pretty much one of the first sites I went to when I first started getting into digital photography.

 

I think he sums up the situation best with this quote...

 

The death of the DSLR has been greatly exagerated

 

 

Another interesting thing to note about his article is what is missing when talking about what ails the camera market.  The word "video" is almost entirely missing from the article.  It is mentioned once in relation to auto focus and PRAISING the Canon 70D and then at the end of the article when he is stating it is not a feature he cares about.

 

I actually found that article while lurking on another forum where people were discussing Canon's future plans.  It was interesting because none of the thread participants mentioned video.  Actually one person mentioned the 5D MK II being "hyped" because it had video capabilities.  That was it.

 

Canon won't be launching any revolutionary mirrorless products in the US because that market is infinitely more unappealing than the DSLR market.  I won't hold my breath for much innovation in the Rebel line of cameras regarding video.  Canon's target market doesn't really seem to notice nor care whether the video is great or not.

 

If great video was the solution to what ails Canon then why are mirrorless sales (ie Panasonic GH3, G6, etc) plummetting?

 

 

 

A 40 percent drop in Panasonic's overall camera sales in April-September left the imaging division vulnerable as the company's mid-term plan to March 2016 demands unprofitable businesses turn themselves around or face the axe.

"If you look mid-to-long term, digital camera makers are slipping and the market is becoming an oligopoly," said Credit Suisse imaging analyst Yu Yoshida.

Panasonic held 3.1 percent of the camera market in July-September, down from 3.8 percent a year earlier, according to IDC. Canon Inc, Nikon Corp and Sony Corp controlled over 60 percent between them.

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/mirrorless-camera-sales-disappoint-2013-12

 

I can't see anyone at Canon suggesting Canon go down the Panasonic rabbit hole.

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I don't know what it's like in Europe, but here in America, Panasonic's upscale cameras are not readily available in retail outlets.  Not only are they absent from the "big box" American retail companies like Target, WalMart, etc., but they have limited display space in actual camera shops where the enthusiast's spend their money.

 

In my city, San Diego, there are 4 reputable camera stores that cater to the hobbyist market.  None of them sell the upmarket Panasonic cameras.  A few point and shoot cams on the shelves of the consumer stores, but that's it.  Fuji has a bigger presence here than Panasonic.

 

Bad sales are not for the lack of good product, IMHO.  They just don't have the penetration in retail.   From where I'm sitting, it's all on the sales distribution regarding the bad numbers.  It's not the feature set.  I'm going to disagree with Atkin's assessment.  Correlating bad sales to the product features might not be the actual causation.

 

That said, I don't expect Panasonic to go away with their product line anytime soon.  Because I believe that, I just bought two Panasonic m43 cameras and four m43 prime lenses. I expect the cams to easily get 4 years of use for the gigs I do.  That's a fair investment.  The lenses should have life well beyond that as other companies continue development of m43 camera bodies that support 4K video.

 

If you want to be a "glass is half full" kind of person, you could even rationalize that these numbers might be good for Panasonic's development.  If the m43 camera division needs to grab headlines because of slumping sales, perhaps really unleashing and pushing the video capabilities of their sensors will be a useful tool; mixed with proper marketing and dealership. 

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Mirrorless camera sales in the US have slipped because in Japan they have a "smaller is smarter" mentality and love novelty, but in the US it is a "bigger is better" culture and people equate something like a Nikon D4 with quality, because of the heft and substantial size.

 

The biggest mistake the mirrorless market continues to make (even the Sony A7R) is that they are focussed around small size.

 

Mirrorless is the future direction of all cameras because digital technology is the successor to mechanical and optical technology. The mirror is not going to still be flapping up and down in 100 years time, we will have EVFs so good as they will resolve far more than an optical viewfinder and give us super-vision, better than our own eyes can see, especially in low light conditions.

 

Instead of driving home the fact that mirrorless is a POWERFUL technology and DSLRs are a past tech, the Japanese manufacturers gave us cute little GF cameras and dinky PENs. Ridiculous.

 

Only now are they on the right path going high end, but Sony are still trying to downsize their FE mount lenses at the expense of lovely fast apertures, and Olympus are still adding gimmicks on their high end cameras, and none of them have an answer to the workhorse pro cameras like the 1D X and D4. At least not for stills.

 

I have always found a use for mirrorless cameras because the video has often been better - both in terms of image quality and features. That hasn't changed.

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They just don't have the penetration in retail.   From where I'm sitting, it's all on the sales distribution regarding the bad numbers.

 

Yes this could well be another reason. In Europe pretty much every shop has an entire cabinet of Panasonic and Olympus stuff with a full range of accessories. Canon and Nikon don't dominate the floor space, even though most people still end up buying a Canon and Nikon over a mirrorless camera.

 

Perhaps people are just too invested in their Canon and Nikon glass to ever change systems.

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Instead of driving home the fact that mirrorless is a POWERFUL technology and DSLRs are a past tech, the Japanese manufacturers gave us cute little GF cameras and dinky PENs. Ridiculous.

 

Exactly. But not only that, but they're also shooting themselves in the foot with the pricing of those dinky little toys in multiple bright colours.

Double whammy.

 

Sometimes it really puzzles me what are they thinking, or who's really calling the shots for global marketing in those companies.

 

 

Perhaps people are just too invested in their Canon and Nikon glass to ever change systems.

 

Not all of them, in fact not even close. Most of them are just being caught in the massive brand inertia those two giants (still) have.

 

Canikon still have a massive marketing presence, and they control the mainstream distribution channels. Unlike most other brands, Canikon cameras are everywhere, from real camera stores to supermarkets, being stacked next to toilet paper and other such commodities, literally. 

 

Canikon is the only brand the masses see, and the only brand they recognise, and the masses buy whatever "everybody else" is buying, too. Not many of them 'dare' to buy something more 'exotic,' even if you try convince them with compelling evidence. I've seen that time and again whilst working in the industry for years. It's very similar within many other industries, too. It's just a fact of life. People are pack animals.

 

The masses often have only the kit lens that comes with the camera, and perhaps another zoom with it. In that sense, the investment in Canikon stuff is often not much greater than it is in other brand stuff. There are just so much more of those with a few Canikon lenses than there are those with other lenses.

The small group of enthusiasts, let alone video enthusiasts are such a small bunch that they barely make a blip in the radar.

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Mirrorless camera sales in the US have slipped because in Japan they have a "smaller is smarter" mentality and love novelty, but in the US it is a "bigger is better" culture and people equate something like a Nikon D4 with quality, because of the heft and substantial size.

 

 

There may be something deeper and sadder going on with the U.S.  I've noticed that you can't get Sigma DP cameras discount through Amazon from U.S. shippers.  All the sellers ship from Japan.  Also, the Canon EOSM 11-22mm is not sold in the U.S.   Even at the few high-end camera shops here, I don't see Panasonic cameras.  The salesman as Calumet have very little enthusiasm for cameras.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if import fees are expensive or not worth the effort.  I feel like I'm dreaming, when I look at how far this country's gov't has its head up its a__.  Apparently, one of the fall-outs of the spying/NSA scandal is CISCO is having trouble selling networking equipment over-seas.  Why would Germany buy anything made here when we spy on their gov't in such an obnoxious way?  

 

In short, American arrogance is killing the camera market here :)  FYI.  It's worse than you think over here, Andrew.

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I got my GH2 from B&H online.  I likely would have anyhow but there is literally no place for a normal consumer to buy one here, in a decent sized city, or GH3 if I was to look now.  Panasonic just isn't a popular enough brand here for anything but consumer A/V equipment.

 

I had a devil of a time trying to find a back-up battery some months ago and ended up, after half a day's search, finding a small shop that carried this generic brand (that lasted half as long with no feedback to the LCD, but I wasn't about to be picky that day).  They were a rental house with a small retail space up front so it was a good guess that if they had a GH2 rental package they might carry some replacement batteries.

 

Mailorder has decimated the local camera shops and exchanges who have pretty much all shut down save for one good sized store.  I just loathe to go in there because when I do I'm usually looking for something mildly unusual and the retail monkeys just look at me like I'm speaking in tongues.  I kept trying to think of different ways to describe a "lens collar" to this one guy and you'd think I was asking him for a warp drive.

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I don't know what it's like in Europe, but here in America, Panasonic's upscale cameras are not readily available in retail outlets.  Not only are they absent from the "big box" American retail companies like Target, WalMart, etc., but they have limited display space in actual camera shops where the enthusiast's spend their money.

 

In my city, San Diego, there are 4 reputable camera stores that cater to the hobbyist market.  None of them sell the upmarket Panasonic cameras.  A few point and shoot cams on the shelves of the consumer stores, but that's it.  Fuji has a bigger presence here than Panasonic.

 

Bad sales are not for the lack of good product, IMHO.  They just don't have the penetration in retail.   From where I'm sitting, it's all on the sales distribution regarding the bad numbers.  It's not the feature set.  I'm going to disagree with Atkin's assessment.  Correlating bad sales to the product features might not be the actual causation.

 

 

I agree that there is basically zero retail visibility.  Even when I have gone to actively look for Panasonic options I initially thought products were discontinued or something.  There was either limited stock available or more often no stock.  Not really sure why that is.

 

 

Mirrorless camera sales in the US have slipped because in Japan they have a "smaller is smarter" mentality and love novelty, but in the US it is a "bigger is better" culture and people equate something like a Nikon D4 with quality, because of the heft and substantial size.

 

 

I don't know about that.  One of my frustrations for years has been wanting bigger rolls of medium format slide film.  The big rolls are only avilable in Japan.  Japan has all kinds of weird and wonderful photography stuff that just isn't available in the US.  Across the board the pattern of acquisition and use is dramatically different.  I really view Japan as it's own seperate photographic world.

 


Mirrorless is the future direction of all cameras because digital technology is the successor to mechanical and optical technology. The mirror is not going to still be flapping up and down in 100 years time, we will have EVFs so good as they will resolve far more than an optical viewfinder and give us super-vision, better than our own eyes can see, especially in low light conditions.

 

Instead of driving home the fact that mirrorless is a POWERFUL technology and DSLRs are a past tech, the Japanese manufacturers gave us cute little GF cameras and dinky PENs. Ridiculous.

 

The interesting thing is in the photography world technology from the dawn of the art is still used today and will in all likelihood still be used 100 years from now.  No one has figured out a replacement for ground glass.  You check out all the high end 4x5 and 8x10 cameras and they are all analog and use ground glass.  The exact same way they did over 100 years ago.  Photography has been a story about multiple technologies spanning decades happily coexisting.  My camera bag contains everything from a cell phone camera, to a medium format film camera (with penta prism and ground glass), to a film 35 mm, to a couple of DSLRs.  They all serve different purposes with tons of overlap.  Now a lot of the cameras are not manufactured any more but if someone asked me which one was obsolete I would say, none.

 

Even if mirrorless does eventually wipe out all SLRs (debatable) that doesn't mean it's going to happen any time in the next decade.  Remeber the Apple Newton?  How long did it take for Apple to produce a tablet that help transform it into the most profitable company in the world?

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I wouldn't be surprised if import fees are expensive or not worth the effort.  I feel like I'm dreaming, when I look at how far this country's gov't has its head up its a__.  Apparently, one of the fall-outs of the spying/NSA scandal is CISCO is having trouble selling networking equipment over-seas.  Why would Germany buy anything made here when we spy on their gov't in such an obnoxious way?  

 

In short, American arrogance is killing the camera market here :)  FYI.  It's worse than you think over here, Andrew.

 

I believe an French exspymaster said he would do the exact same thing the NSA is doing and told whining Americans to basically grow up and Putin came right out and said he was "jealous" of the NSA.  Other spy chiefs pretty much echoed the same sentiments.  Our problem is outsourcing screening of our intelligence personnel to incompetent private companies.

 

From Paris with love...

 

 

 

France spies on the US just as the US spies on France, the former head of France’s counter-espionage and counter-terrorism agency said Friday, commenting on reports that the US National Security Agency (NSA) recorded millions of French telephone calls.

Bernard Squarcini, head of the Direction Centrale du Renseignement Intérieur (DCRI) intelligence service until last year, told French daily Le Figaro he was “astonished†when Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said he was "deeply shocked" by the claims.

“I am amazed by such disconcerting naiveté,†he said in the interview. “You’d almost think our politicians don’t bother to read the reports they get from the intelligence services.â€

 

http://www.france24.com/en/20131024-nsa-france-spying-squarcini-dcri-hollande-ayrault-merkel-usa-obama/

 

Panasonic imports plenty of stuff into the US profitably and without issue.  I don't think you can blame the govenment for every private company that can't get it's act together in one product line.

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...

Remeber the Apple Newton?  How long did it take for Apple to produce a tablet that help transform it into the most profitable company in the world?

 

Long enough to almost go out of business, fire John Sculley, bring Jobs back who fired the entirety of the Newton team and re-populate Apple with his NeXT team.  A good while.  It would have taken longer without a messiah.

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I wouldn't be surprised if import fees are expensive or not worth the effort.

 

Well, it's not like there is an American manufacturer taking over the niche, so I don't think import fees have much to do with it (which haven't changed much and are relatively low).  I just don't think there is any demand for this stuff. The phones are what kill this market, and those are manufactured overseas too.

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Well, it's not like there is an American manufacturer taking over the niche, so I don't think import fees have much to do with it (which haven't changed much and are relatively low).  I just don't think there is any demand for this stuff. The phones are what kill this market, and those are manufactured overseas too.

 

 

The phone argument is a good one. Unfortunately, it's often presented as the pretense for the wrong case, i.e., "Camera technology is improving in such a way that in X year's time, the cameras in our phones are going to be as good as professional DSLRs." Obviously not true, but it doesn't change the functional outcome of the situation, which is that more people are going to be satisfied with what their phones offer relative to the costs of picking up something like a PEN or a GM1.

The problem that phones represent to the mirrorless/prosumer market is that they're good enough for a lot of the people who want to take photographs. Reasonable megapixel count, reasonable dynamic range, reasonable functionality, a host of plug-and-play post processing apps; couple all that with the fact that they're already carrying it around on their person and it means these cameras are good enough for a lot of people. I think these people see moving beyond their phone cameras as an exercise in diminishing returns: there's a technical learning curve, a more difficult post process, a more complicated pipeline, and an added bulk that diminishes the relative benefits of better image quality and increased creative control. Many people simply don't care enough about those things to move up from an iPhone.

Clearly the mirrorless/M43 fills a need in the market, but is it big enough and sustainable enough to warrant the R&D that goes in to advancing the format? I don't know. That's the question. My honest guess would be that it does, but ultimately at the expense of DSLR sales (for all the reasons Andrew stated, and because, anecdotally, it seems people are becoming more "aware" or mirrorless as a viable alternative, even if they aren't yet spending in such a way that reflects this).

I certainly hope it plays out this way, at least. I love my GH3 and think M43 is a great format. I'll be eager to see what the coming year brings!

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Clearly the mirrorless/M43 fills a need in the market, but is it big enough and sustainable enough to warrant the R&D that goes in to advancing the format?

 

This raises a bigger question about market health overall.  And it's legitimate.  Elsewhere on the forum you can find a discussion about the digital Bolex.  A lot of folks believe that it's not technologically advanced enough to be successful.  However, I begin to wonder if smaller enterprises like the crew that built the DBolex might be heralding the future of the Enthusiast/Hobbyist market?

 

When image technology is so advanced that most consumers are satisfied with smart phones as cameras, then what's left?   And is that piece of the pie better suited for more nimble/smaller businesses?

 

15 years from now I imagine all portable technology is going to be able to produce incredibly high resolutions at wonderful detail in low light.  Then what?  It'll be interesting to see who's still here as a manufacturing business and what they're offering.

 

In the meantime, I'm off to go shoot on my 1080 machine.

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I got my Black Magic Pocket in and my mother asked why I bought it. I told her it was a specialty camera and I wanted to learn the workflow (raw, color grading etc)

 

She said, well, for that price you could have got a Canon! 

 

I told her if I wanted Coke or Pepsi, I could have bought Coke or Pepsi.

 

Ironically she bought a used Canon DSLR that is broken... I didn't go there with her.

 

The trust in that brand name is insane.

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Many where predicting here that the dslr where going the way of the Dinosaur and that the mirrorless would prevail. The thing is, that it is at the lowest end consumer market that buys into the cheaper mirrorless systems and it is them that are the most prone to buy smart phone. This is what is happening, even in 10, 20, 50 years there will always be a passionate hobbyist/pro market who will always use a Camera and not a smart phone to take photos. Someday there might be only a market from the $ 800 and upward cameras and it will always be here even with the smart phone. It will be the camera manufacturers who have camera in this range who will survive.

 

A last thing, reading comments here, people would think that Nikon is some type of dinosaur camera manufacturer. I can say that I am a very very happy Nikon photographer. Try to do some pro work from Fashion shoot or wedding during a whole day and see if ergonomic of a camera like the D800 is bad. Could I have dreamt to have such a camera for such a price, rivaling and beating medium format camera in many ways like DR. Even the lowest model like the D3300 sport apsc size sensor with 24 megapixel, 14 stop of DR etc etc. Nikon has been innovating all along. It is Canon who has been milking its user base with no big improvement in image quality. I am not saying that mirror less camera are not the future, but I prefer that they stick to optical viewfinder until the day that evf really beats it s optical counterpart.

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Personally I think there is a lot to be said for small.

When I travel the restrictions on bag weight and size are strictly adhered to by airlines strapped for cash. 15-20 years ago you could be 10 kilos over and the check-in person wouldn't say a word.

I'm in Sydney (Aus) a lot and it's funny to see some tourists lugging a ball and chain round their neck - I mean a DSLR with massive zoom lens. In the heat of the city they look pissed off generally. A lot of the asian tourists seem to use tiny Fuji style cameras (NEX sized) or I quite often see the mini tablet being used for pics (Samsung etc).

Even in Australia Panasonic seem thin on the ground. Most of the big camera stores only sell the most popular mid-priced cameras. It took me forever to find a NEX-7. And yes, Canon and Nikon are everywhere, but maybe that's what sells? And yes, maybe it's because the serious hobbyist and professionals are heavily invested in Canon and Nikon glass?

I wouldn't over state the NSA thing. Here it's barely raised an eyebrow. As a Brit who has traveled a lot, I find the anti-American claim to be often overstated. Lot's of people still queue over night to be first in line every time a new Apple product goes on sale.

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Maybe it's because the serious hobbyist and professionals are heavily invested in Canon and Nikon glass?

 

That has something to do with it.  I do like my Nikon lenses.  

 

On the other hand, I've met amateurs and enthusiasts that lean on the notion that the better the gear the better they'll be at their endeavors.

 

It's an interesting American trait; not sure if it prevalent in other 1st world countries...?

 

For instance, you can't just ride a friggin' bicycle here, for many people they have to have equipment on par with the Italian team that competes in the Tour de France.  I'm not exaggerating.  Just peddling a regular bike for a few miles for neighborhood commutes in everyday clothes does't seem to be an option.

 

You want to go out for a hike?  Well, you better outfit your feet with $700 boots for that weekend jaunt of 3 miles.  Stuff like that.  I worry sometimes that there's a culture of over indulging in acquiring things in order to just do simple things.

 

Same goes with photo gear.  An acquaintance of mine bought a Hasselblad and 4 prime lenses; cost more than his house.  Such are the priorities for some. He took pictures of the mountains of Wyoming with it.  That was about it.  Pix were't anything special either.  

 

Anyway, everyone has different motivations, some just seem odd to me.

 

Arguably, it could be the psychology of just presenting an idealized image of oneself to one's peers?  Thus, bigger equals better?  Perception equals reality?  American's have a culture that's marketed to and advertised to relentlessly.  We're told that without item "A" we are less than those that have "A".  Without "A" we can't be happy.  Do we all accept those marketing ideals on a subconscious level?  Could it be as simple as insecurity?  Without the bigger things we don't feel accomplished?

 

The USA is definitely a "Big" nation, I do know that.

 

Yet here I am making a documentary on a Lumix GM1...exceptions, rules, and all that I suppose.

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I got my Black Magic Pocket in and my mother asked why I bought it. I told her it was a specialty camera and I wanted to learn the workflow (raw, color grading etc)

 

She said, well, for that price you could have got a Canon! 

 

I told her if I wanted Coke or Pepsi, I could have bought Coke or Pepsi.

 

Ironically she bought a used Canon DSLR that is broken... I didn't go there with her.

 

The trust in that brand name is insane.

 

 

People do not buy BMPCC because they are more reliable than Canons.  And what happened to a random used Canon that your mother bought doesn't reflect on Canon in any way.  That's part of buying used.  You get a killer deal on most items but you take a risk that eventually you will get something that is being sold because it has been abused.

 

And your non savvy mom is exactly the person who should buy a Canon.  No one is saying everyone should rush out an buy a Canon.  Or that stock Canon Rebel video is better than BMPCC raw.  No camera is perfect.  They all have their pros and cons.  Let's just take it easy on just blindly making stuff up about different form factors and brands.

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