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Andrew Reid

Photokina 2020 - victim of coronavirus?

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9 hours ago, Jimmy G said:

Based on the numbers being provided at this link...

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control: COVID-19:

https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/COVID-19.html

...as of this post writing: 89,068 Reported Cases, 3,046 Reported Deaths, simple math reveals yields a mortality rate of 3.4%.

Considering that diagnostic testing for this virus is limited globally, both the Reported Cases and, thus, knowable Reportable Deaths resulting from the virus are currently unknowable and therefore being way under-reported. A better understanding of the mortality rate will evolve as testing proliferates and the data pool expands with accurate reporting.

For the data junkies amongst us, here's an analysis of the European 1918–1919 influenza pandemic that infected an estimated 500,000,000 people and killed an estimated 50,000,000 people, a simple math mortality rate of 10%...

Mortality burden of the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic in Europe:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4634693/

...and a global historical data examination here...

History of 1918 Flu Pandemic | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/1918-pandemic-history.htm

 

Based on the first link's current COVID-19 dataset, we are nowhere near the proliferation rates as seen 102 years ago, nor are we anywhere near those mortality rates. With the exception of the data spike for February 13, daily Reported/Mortality rates are fairly constant and are neither growing linearly or exponentially.

Should those facts change I may raise my concern levels, however I'm currently dealing with this as a I do influenza season. There are a lot of pathogens and disease that can do us in, I choose not to live my life in fear...

List of human disease case fatality rates - Wikipedia:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_human_disease_case_fatality_rates

My college class for FCPX proceeds, I just scored a Zhiyun Smooth-4 for my iPhone, and my final video project will be due in May. :)

Keep in mind that although the mortality rate reported in the media is about "1-2" %, the number of people sick enough to end up in hospital is probably an order of magnitude higher. This virus is VERY serious and should not be taken lightly. As of right now there are 32,851 (82%) cases listed as "mild" and 7,098 (18%) listed as "serious or critical" (those are the folk in hospital or otherwise being cared by some sort of medical professional). The highest mortality rate is among those 80+, where ~20% of those infected are dying. That means that pretty much everyone in that age group who gets infected is probably going to end up in hospital.

 

Also, the mortality rate is not quite how people are currently calculating it, because they are including those currently ill as well as those recovered. It should really be the ratio of deaths/(recovered + deaths), or 3,120/(48,284 + 3,120), which comes out to 6.1%.

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31 minutes ago, shooter said:

Thank you for your words. I can't understand how people can dislike your post... Brainless.

I'd say brainless is finding my last post in a completely unrelated topic and downvoting it just because I reacted with an opinion opposite of yours. You literally downvoted a question I had about a lens back in October 🤣

It's ok for people to disagree on things - that's the whole point of having a brain in the first place.

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17 minutes ago, Jonathan422 said:

I'd say brainless is finding my last post in a completely unrelated topic and downvoting it just because I reacted with an opinion opposite of yours. You literally downvoted a question I had about a lens back in October 🤣

It's ok for people to disagree on things - that's the whole point of having a brain in the first place.

No, you're wrong. I just tried to understand your profile. The kind of person behind that reaction. I found you have no idea what LAOWA is. Clear now?

You're only right in your second paragraph. Seems clear-cut you don't follow it whatsoever.

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7 minutes ago, shooter said:

 I found you have no idea what LAOWA is. Clear now?

I asked for the general consensus of how well Laowas perform since I've never used one and was thinking about buying one... in other words the whole point of this site.

7 minutes ago, shooter said:

No, you're wrong.

Can we all stop for a second and think about the fact that you're saying I was wrong to say that it's ok to have different opinions? 😂 You're a funny person

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13 minutes ago, Jonathan422 said:

I asked for the general consensus of how well Laowas perform since I've never used one and was thinking about buying one... in other words the whole point of this site.

Can we all stop for a second and think about the fact that you're saying I was wrong to say that it's ok to have different opinions? 😂 You're a funny person

If you'd stop for a second before you think you're right, the rest of the world speak your language and have in mind your thoughts, you'd send a better call about you. More funny is hard to find.

Don't shoot first and ask the questions later. Read first the other people till the end.

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1 minute ago, shooter said:

If you'd stop for a second before you think you're right, the rest of the world speak your language and have in mind your thoughts, you'd send a better call about you. Funnier is hard to find.

Don't shoot first and ask the questions later. Read first the other people till the end.

I honestly have no Idea what you're talking about

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44 minutes ago, Jonathan422 said:

I honestly have no Idea what you're talking about

You're so mad with different people to have another opinion, you've missed the second paragraph of my post. 😂 You dislike, you downvote, but you don't like when other people downvote you.

People don't all speak your language, Napoleon.

I think you also miss the point of this thread. Didn't quote you. You did it because I had downvoted you in another thread. While Canon is shutting down their factories till this lasts. 

https://www.eoshd.com/comments/topic/43503-canon-is-temporarily-shutting-down-five-of-its-factories-due-to-supply-shortages-caused-by-covid-19/

This is a tragedy. It's not fun.

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7 hours ago, Mokara said:

Summer is not going to help you. Things like the common cold and flu decrease in summer

Yes it does. When the Spanish flu was spreading there was a sharp decline in infections and death but then come fall and winter it would come back (and did and killer 100s is thousands in the US alone).

So having summer come to slow down the infection rate to buy time to develop a vaccine is very important.

I think the worst is yet to come for the US at least. We have been slow to deploy testing kits and as we do the number of confirmed cases are rising.

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2 hours ago, shooter said:

You're so mad with different people to have another opinion, you've missed the second paragraph of my post. 😂 You dislike, you downvote, but you don't like when other people downvote you.

People don't all speak your language, Napoleon.

I think you also miss the point of this thread. Didn't quote you. You did it because I had downvoted you in another thread. While Canon is shutting down their factories till this lasts. 

https://www.eoshd.com/comments/topic/43503-canon-is-temporarily-shutting-down-five-of-its-factories-due-to-supply-shortages-caused-by-covid-19/

This is a tragedy. It's not fun.

You're putting words in my mouth. Sorry I offended you. All I did was downvote a post that had faulty math in it, that wasn't even yours, and you're calling me brainless, Napoleon, wrong...

Chill out and have a cup of tea, please.

Sorry to everyone else reading all this, too - didn't mean to start a war on here

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49 minutes ago, Jonathan422 said:

You're putting words in my mouth. Sorry I offended you. All I did was downvote a post that had faulty math in it, that wasn't even yours, and you're calling me brainless, Napoleon, wrong...

Chill out and have a cup of tea, please.

Sorry to everyone else reading all this, too - didn't mean to start a war on here

No, I'm not. Interpretation of your reaction, that's it. No hard feelings. Sorry I offended you too. Agreed, let's make the peace, no war. It's harmless, it's not a virus, no worries. 😉 Napoleon is a friendly treatment, hero for French people.

Where's the wrong math? The guy only isn't neglecting the fact this virus is most dangerous to older people than younger. 

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10 hours ago, Mokara said:

Keep in mind that although the mortality rate reported in the media is about "1-2" %, the number of people sick enough to end up in hospital is probably an order of magnitude higher. This virus is VERY serious and should not be taken lightly. As of right now there are 32,851 (82%) cases listed as "mild" and 7,098 (18%) listed as "serious or critical" (those are the folk in hospital or otherwise being cared by some sort of medical professional). The highest mortality rate is among those 80+, where ~20% of those infected are dying. That means that pretty much everyone in that age group who gets infected is probably going to end up in hospital.

 

Also, the mortality rate is not quite how people are currently calculating it, because they are including those currently ill as well as those recovered. It should really be the ratio of deaths/(recovered + deaths), or 3,120/(48,284 + 3,120), which comes out to 6.1%.

Not arguing with the maths and you may be right for the death rate of those who are hospitalized but I think for those those getting it at all, the death rate is a lot lower.      It seems as if many more people go to hospital as a percentage than do for flu but some strains of flu do kill more people and the worst thing about this (and why it WILL spread everywhere) is that you can be infected by someone long before they get sick and by the time anyone knows they have it, it is too late for those they are in contact with.     

Good thing I am anti-social.

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16 minutes ago, noone said:

Not arguing with the maths and you may be right for the death rate of those who are hospitalized but I think for those those getting it at all, the death rate is a lot lower.      It seems as if many more people go to hospital as a percentage than do for flu but some strains of flu do kill more people and the worst thing about this (and why it WILL spread everywhere) is that you can be infected by someone long before they get sick and by the time anyone knows they have it, it is too late for those they are in contact with.     

Good thing I am anti-social.

Those are the numbers for confirmed cases. Obviously there may be other milder cases out there that are not tested, so they would not be included, but we don't know because they are not tested. But 6% is a scary number, assuming 70% penetration in the event of a pandemic we would be looking at 300-350 million deaths globally.

Mortality rates among confirmed cases among the elderly is pretty high, so I wonder what the effect on the US election is going to be. By the time that rolls around a significant number of Trump's supporters may be dead, and that could affect swing states, Florida for example. Hell, even the candidates from both parties may be dead, since both appear to be going to have senior citizens as their nominees. What will happen then? Does the electoral college then get to choose some random person for president?

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3 hours ago, Video Hummus said:

Yes it does. When the Spanish flu was spreading there was a sharp decline in infections and death but then come fall and winter it would come back (and did and killer 100s is thousands in the US alone).

So having summer come to slow down the infection rate to buy time to develop a vaccine is very important.

I think the worst is yet to come for the US at least. We have been slow to deploy testing kits and as we do the number of confirmed cases are rising.

The ebb and flow of the infection was due primarily to relatively limited mobility at the time combined with the end of the first world war. Virus cases do fall off in summer, but the reason is not well understood. It is believed to be primarily due to social behaviour though, in cold weather people tend to congregate in confined spaces more than they do in warm weather, so it makes sense that infection patterns would be seasonal.

It will take at least a year for a vaccine to be developed and produced. That is not going to help for what is coming. Even the newer technologies that in principle could be used to rapidly produce artificial vaccines are in very early stages of development and are highly unlikely to be ready for anything in the sort of time frame needed. I am telling you this as a fact, not speculation. If a pandemic comes in 2021, things will be different, the technology will be there, but not right now.

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22 hours ago, Mokara said:

To minimize your chances of infection (not everyone gets infected in these sorts of outbreaks) you depend on firewalls to protect you. Basically the fewer people everyone comes into contact with, the less the chance of spreading.

Bike messengers are screwed. We basically come in contact with more people every day than almost anybody else. 
I know with some bike messengers who basically never go through a winter without catching a cold at some point during it. (had one recently retire after nearly three decades, commented to me exactly that fact! Over all those many years, he'd never been through even one without catching a cold. Last winter was the first time he hadn't! Because he'd retired from couriering, and just did UberEATS a few times a week instead, so at least he could make the choice to avoid the wet and the cold if it got to be too much for him)
 

14 hours ago, Video Hummus said:

So having summer come to slow down the infection rate to buy time to develop a vaccine is very important.


Sh*t news for New Zealand though! Autumn has just started, I was soaked in the rain for hours today.

Will be another six months until Spring rolls around again to save us. 

Can NZ hold off the arrival of the Coronavirus for six whole months?? I don't believe that for a second! Not with the completely pathetic efforts we're making at (human) bio-security at our borders! We'll basically just hand you a flyer "warning you", wish you well, then wave you on. 

Once the Coronavirus gets a half decent grip on NZ and starts its spread, then it will be everywhere across the entire county within a matter of weeks. We already got our second confirmed case here in NZ today. 

I said "(human) bio-security" because oh boy are we super crazy insanely over the top tough with our bio-security  otherwise... don't you dare even think about trying to bring in a piece of fruit into our country! Or have dirty boots! The shock and horror of it all! No way, you won't be coming in here with that. Stop!

 

  

11 hours ago, Mokara said:

Hell, even the candidates from both parties may be dead, since both appear to be going to have senior citizens as their nominees. What will happen then? Does the electoral college then get to choose some random person for president?

The only folks who might come into contact with more people than bike messengers is politicians!

Do you see how many hands they shake? How many hugs they embrace? How many high fives they give out? How many babies they kiss!
 

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Today is the day we got news of first, confirmed case of COVID-19 in Poland. 

Not that far from where I live - only 130 km. 

We don't know much about the patient, apart from: he is not a senior, isn't immunocompromised and that he recently got back from Germany. 

Supposedly, everything was done the way it should - he was driven to a hospital in a special ambulance and everyone, who had any contact with him, are taken care of. 

We'll see how it goes.. 

 

Right now, a lot of my students colleagues (I'm a med student) don't have 'classes', because the hospitals can't provide enough face masks and disposable gowns for the whole personnel. 

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On 3/3/2020 at 4:47 PM, leslie said:

thats the next video challenge then, document your best tinfoil hat / mask build

How am I doing.....

image.thumb.png.da593faa1b07b9a901a8eb0d8ccea7ba.png
image.thumb.png.1ead7ab49342f14eaa2091a2c1e8415f.png

 

This like Scrabble, right? Where I get a triple bonus word score, for combing 5G / chemtrails / anti-vax all into one conspiracy theory!
 

7 minutes ago, heart0less said:

Supposedly, everything was done the way it should - he was driven to a hospital in a special ambulance and everyone, who had any contact with him, are taken care of. 


"Taken care of", that's very ominous!

Hope they were not "taken care of" like they do with suspected cases in North Korea!!
 

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1 hour ago, IronFilm said:

How am I doing.....

image.thumb.png.da593faa1b07b9a901a8eb0d8ccea7ba.png
image.thumb.png.1ead7ab49342f14eaa2091a2c1e8415f.png

 

This like Scrabble, right? Where I get a triple bonus word score, for combing 5G / chemtrails / anti-vax all into one conspiracy theory!
 


"Taken care of", that's very ominous!

Hope they were not "taken care of" like they do with suspected cases in North Korea!!
 

if they have some blues and green meds like in the bourne movie. I'm down for anything that would lift my iq 😁

you win triple bonus and all. Im not sure what you win through.

theres apparently a story on a current affair tomorrow night about a couple from that cruise ship stuck off japan. they then endured two weeks at a quarantine station. Doesn't sound like their very happy with the measures implemented.

hey ironfilms is devondale a nz company ? as i did buy a couple of liters of long life milk yesterday, just in case. nothing quite like a tall glass of cold milk.

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On 3/3/2020 at 4:47 AM, leslie said:

thats the next video challenge then, document your best tinfoil hat / mask build

I'm too busy obsessing over stats to build even a tin foil beret at the moment let alone the full hat.

Thus far I'm comforting myself with "You're in a city with 14 million people and they take 8.5 million subway rides per day and they only have 60 cases".

Doesn't stop me convincing myself I'm nailed on to be number 61 of course.

 

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2 minutes ago, BTM_Pix said:

I'm too busy obsessing over stats to build even a tin foil beret at the moment let alone the full hat.

Thus far I'm comforting myself with "You're in a city with 14 million people and they take 8.5 million subway rides per day and they only have 60 cases".

Doesn't stop me convincing myself I'm nailed on to be number 61 of course.

 

If you play John Lennon’s “Imagine All The People” on loop for 48 hours (even when you sleep) it will kill the virus.

This advice comes from the top of the US Gov’t. The very top.

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