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Marcio Kabke Pinheiro

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Everything posted by Marcio Kabke Pinheiro

  1. The million dollar question (literally) is to really know how much shorted shares and put options are still in the funds hands. The prices continues to drop, but looks like that the volumes are low (do not have a platform here capable to look volumes on NYSE and NASDAQ). But all this are info coming from WSB - and there are very conflicting info going around there. And shorted shares did not have a due date to come back to the original users, if you rent them again (paying a higher interest rate). Options yes, if you bought a put option there is a due date - that was yesterday or today for the options that the due date were friday. But the morale in the WSB is kind of low.
  2. I'm new to Fuji, had an X100S and recently a X-T20 to get the grips of the system, never had a X-Tx, hard to compare. But my impressions are excellent - have some "mass", no flexes at all, top and bottom plate VERY sturdy. Dials are plastic, but with good quality and much better feeling than the X-T20 (and X-T30) ones. I was using the GX9 and the E-M10 MK III, for me the build quality is much better than GX9 and a little bit better than the E_M10 MK III (albeit the Oly's dials are the best ones). EVF is clearly worse than the X-T4 - same panel as the E-M10 MK III. But is a small camera (looks like a P&S with a grip - for me is a plus, people around are not intimidated); I think that it is better that you try one in a store before purchasing.
  3. SEC will do nothing. In these cases, the financial authorities says that a big player going down could pose as a sistemic risk - like was Lehmann Brothers in 2008. Confirmed by the prices today - AMC and GME were falling, Robinhood restores the GME buys, sharp rise in price, buys blocked again. (in fact, if you still using Robinhood, you deserve it) And AFAIK, brokers could list / delist stocks at their wish. The "marvels" of a free and unregulated market.
  4. I would go X-S10 for stills any day against the X-E4 - IBIS, amazing grip, two dials, more controls. Against the X-T4, not so much. And remember that the X-S10 have 4 custom positions on the mode dial, which you can program for fast switching with different shooting scenarios - which I guess is a very common situation in events and weddings. But for sure you know much more than me about the needs of your craft (not being ironic here). Just I think that the X-S10 is a much better camera than the X-E4, besides styling (and in person the X-S10 looks better than in photos), for a little bit more. I was very, VERY surprised with this camera, much better than I expected.
  5. Looking at the development of this GME/AMC story very closely - put a couple bucks in both to see what hapṕens. In fact, if I was a financial journalist, would start right now to get deep in the events to make a book, for sure will be a good one, with a lot of lessons - and probably a bad taste in the end. But would be very good to show how the gears of the machine works. About the stocks behaviour, purely from a trading point, between the Redditors and the funds. At friday, the prices were remarkbly stable after the usual jump in the pre-market - looks like the reddit had won. I guessed that probably the funds would spend the weekend developing a tactic together, and it looks like the case. Friday was a critical day because was the last day to trade a lot of stock options - granted, did not research to see the gross numbers of the options. This options are a big part of the Redditors strategy - the other (and probably bigger) are the shorted stocks, which did not have a due date but you have to rent them and pay interest rate, that probably is going higher by the day too. These are their assumptions. Yesterday both stocks dropped their price very sharply and continuously during the day. And are having another huge drop now in the premarket (GME at 156 and AMC at 9.91). To know what exactly happend you have to do a lot of digging in stock statistic sites - which I don't have the knowledge or time to do. Could be sells from people that cannot handle the losses (the late ones that arrived at the party) or, most probably, short ladder attacks orchestrated by the funds, since it looks like that the volumes are not very big. Don't know exactly the NYSE timings for the exercise of the options, which will make the funds that have put options buy GME/AMC shares; in teh WSB some people say that it is today. If it is the case, probably the funds will spend the day on the phone coordinating operations to make the price drop the most that they can, before having to buy the stocks to cover their puts and lower their losses. But if I was a hedge fund, besides the short ladder attacks, I would have used the high volatility created by WSB to profit, shorting even more GME stocks before the orchestrated actions that they know will make the price go down - WBS have millions of user, but hedge funds have billions of money. Or even mounted a straddle option operation, which will profit if the stock goes very high or drop a lot (don't know the actual volatility numbers to see if it would be profitable, probably would be). Rooting for WSB, but the odds probably are not on their side. And if the SEC would take a side in the question, for sure will be in the funds side - at least saying that "intervention was needed to prevent a sistemic risk to the market" or something like that.
  6. X-E4 was an immense bummer for me - it was dumbed down all around in terms of controls, and no IBIS. Since you are versed in Fuji, I guess that a if you take a look at the X-S10 you will be very pleased - got one, loving the camera, as an amateur.
  7. Or what was left from Olympus - now specialized in endoscopes and rectoscopes - release a special line with the motto "to see the other side". The Olympussy.
  8. Probably. At least looks like that they've put a proper heat spreader inside - since the body is made of magnesium, they probably will have better recovery times compared to the Canon. https://www.sony.com/electronics/interchangeable-lens-cameras/ilce-1 Basically they made a competitor to the single-digit Canons and Nikons, but with 50mp. I guess that it is the dream from your sport shooting years, @BTM_Pix 🙂
  9. Just an update, got my X-S10 this week. Not too much time to play with it, only some stills - but liking it a lot. Lens collection grew up too: 18-55f/2.8-4, "Fujicrons" 35mm and 50mm f/2, the 55-200mm f/3.5-4.8 and a Viltrox 85mm f/1.8. Need just a Rokinon 12mm f/2 to complete my equivalent set on m4/3. Camera is VERY small (looks like a point&shoot), but the grip is huge and very comfortable.
  10. I had moved on - m43 was more than enough for my amateur needs, but as an amateur (aka my gear do not bring me income), I could not have the luxury to sit on a inventory of 2 bodies, 10 lenses, 2 speedboosters, etc if m43 dies. And here in Brazil the exchange rate is soaring and now a lot of gear that I have could be sold with the same price (and sometimes above) that what I've paid, which is uncommon. Hence, selling all my m43 gear, gone to Fuji. Second lesson - buying everything used, in good condition (all my m43 gear was bought new). Already got an X-T20 (with the intention to test if I like the system - was a sound YES), a 18-55mm f/2.8-4, a 35mm F2, a 50mm F2, everything is excellent shape (the 50 was virtually new), with prices about 60% of the new ones. On the way a 55-200mm pristine with HALF the price of a new one. Just need a Rokinon 12m f2 to mimic the m43 gear that was intended to keep. Just one new piece of gear - a X-S10, arriving tomorrow, only because the lauch price was around 20% more than in the US (usually the difference here is around 50 to 60% more, sometimes 100%). Already have two more bodies (an E-M10 III and a GX9) to move, and most of the lenses. In the end, will have a good profit in the operation. But if I was not worried about the future, an E-M5 MK III would be perfect for me. In fact, if m43 goes wrong and the prices drop, probably will get one and some of the lenses back.
  11. In m43 realm, yes, I think that they will release the GH6, maybe a G9 sucessor, and probably will leave - or making just specialized gear like the BGH1. In full frame, really don't know.
  12. The problem with only adding cores is that they are only useful if your software could use all of them. Massive parallelism is very difficult to obtain.
  13. For tinfoil hat speech, I have another video forum to suggest to you...
  14. Yep. But already got the 18-55 f/2.8-4 with the XT-20, then the zoom question is settled. Great little lens, must say. Liking the Fuji experience, until now.
  15. Any one ever saw a iPhone teardown? It is a battery, a tiny mainboard, two or 3 camera modules, screen module and some connectors. The BOM cost for this in the iPhone 12 Pro is US$406 (https://www.gsmarena.com/apple_iphone_12_pro_bom_come_up_to_406-news-46442.php), probably much less, since Apple could get massive discounts buying it in bunch. Let's say it goes to US$300. Almost no mechanical adjustments needed, the assembly might be very cheap. Easily the profit is around 300% per unit. Now get a Nikon camera, see the immense complexity of it, the much higher price of a much bigger sensor (made in fractions of quantity of smaller smartphone chips), the amount of mechanical adjustments needed, which translates in much costly labor. Probably the profit is MUCH lower, with more complexity, and in 2019 Nikon sold around 1.73 million units between DSLR and mirrorless. Apple sold around 37,7 million units of the iPhone 11 in the FIRST HALF of 2020. My bets is that they don't give a damn to the traditional camera market.
  16. Same question, specially in video AF. Saw some problems but they released a firmware upgrade to solve them. (just ordered the 85mm 1.8)
  17. Looks like will be available here in mid-December. Hence, 1 month to try a Fuji to get around to see if it fits my needs... Than I saw a used X-T20 with the 18-55 f/2.8-4, 6 batteries (2 original), external grip and flash for about the US used price (for Brazil prices, kind of a bargain) and ordered it. An X-T30 would be better, but used units are very rare and a new body would cost 30% more than the whole kit above. Since my doubs are more in usability terms, photo IQ is very similar with the last Fujis, and video is a little bit worse (4k line skipped, but I liked the samples that I saw), if the X-T20 fit my needs than I will go full Fuji (will miss my m4/3 gear - specially the Olympus 75mm 1.8...).
  18. Well, camera is on stock now, looks like the preorders are arriving. Anyone here got one?
  19. H265 is decoded in hardware, but probably the editor that you use must support it, as usual. Since you use FCPX, and (AFAIK) it already have a native version for the M1 chip, probably will work very well. I agree with Andrew - if you really need it ASAP, order a 16gb Mini, get the heaviest job that you've done in FCPX with H265, and try for yourself, monitoring RAM usage. If it chokes, return the computer.
  20. HUGE media blitz with glowing reviews...remember me the launches of certain images devices that we are used here... 🙂 Looks like the new Macs are really good, but if I was looking to buy one, would wait until some real world users put it to their paces (and maybe the Rosetta caches becomes full). The 16Gb ram (not expandable) max and the restriction of having only one external monitor could be deal breakers to some video editing setups. (and with the "Apple dollar" here in Brazil, you could buy a top last gen Ryzen with 32 gb ram, top video card and 2TB SSD with the local price of the new Mac Mini, and have some money to spare...)
  21. Waiting for our sound specialist @IronFilm to give his remarks. 🙂 But really, no audio level monitoring needed? "Clipped audio could be recovered", is it real? (my interest is for record concert audio, high SPLs)
  22. The Air probably will throttle a lot more because of cooling. In fact, cooling are a problem for a lot of Mac laptops lately... Promising news, but I really would wait for some REAL world tests - as in cameras, first will be the paid reviews...
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