IronFilm

Also no need to buy a new camera every year when your Nikon D7100 DSLR (or Sony a6000 mirorless) from years ago still takes stellar pictures. 
A kiwi company btw! One of my friends founded Serato, I remember going out for drinks with him say 15+ yrs ago, and when we're in a club he'd have a nosy to see what the DJs were using, seeing if they're using Serato or not
He also dabbles in acting a little bit (as he's kinda semi retired now), I worked on a film with him a few years ago. 
  
Curious how many of those books being read are nonfiction, I bet the stats are even more depressing when it comes to people educating themselves from books 

Also no need to buy a new camera every year when your Nikon D7100 DSLR (or Sony a6000 mirorless) from years ago still takes stellar pictures. 
A kiwi company btw! One of my friends founded Serato, I remember going out for drinks with him say 15+ yrs ago, and when we're in a club he'd have a nosy to see what the DJs were using, seeing if they're using Serato or not
He also dabbles in acting a little bit (as he's kinda semi retired now), I worked on a film with him a few years ago. 
  
Curious how many of those books being read are nonfiction, I bet the stats are even more depressing when it comes to people educating themselves from books 

Panasonic (and Sony) both put fans into mirrorless cameras before external fans started to become more and more of a thing. You see, until recently, it seemed as though overheating was becoming a thing of the past. See: why I keep saying it feels like we're going backwards. 
People's purchasing decisions impact all of us. So yeah, I do care that people keep supporting this nonsense. You give these camera companies an inch and they'll take a mile. Only when you hold them accountable and force their hand do they start to improve. You need only look at Canon trying harder after the R5 debacle to see evidence of that.
What we've seen from Sony is that their overheating issues have gotten worse despite showing that they are more than capable of doing what is necessary to prevent it, given they did it before. What we're also seeing is an army of influencers and paid shills doing everything they can to downplay it, to the point that now people not only accept overheating but applaud third party manufacturers for creating a solution for a problem that shouldn't fucking exist in the first place!
Maybe you weren't around back then, but there was a time when everyone loathed the 30 minute record limit imposed on these cameras. EVERYONE celebrated when those limits were removed. It was one of the things EVERYONE could agree on, a rarity! Just a few years later and now people defend cameras that can't even record for 30 minutes before shutting down! "Who records that long anyway?!" It's ridiculous and disheartening. 

Which is also why I think I am pretty safe being in the wedding industry for the next decade until I retire.
It really would require something like a Nexus 6 to replicate what we do!

Met an ‘olde schoole’ DJ at a wedding the other day who mixed the various latest tech in lighting (reactive to the music?) but only spinning vinyl.
AI can’t replace this guy. You’d need a Nexus 6. Or 5 a least…
He’s set up in a tent on the afternoon taking requests (you go through his boxes of discs and pick stuff) and he then mixes it and twiddles knobs and dances along etc…
In the evening, it’s a different location indoors and he’s spent several hours setting up his lighting not behind him as ‘all’ DJ’s do, but throughout the entire room.
If you want to protect your career, then carve a niche that is hard to replicate and basically impossible to do!

All female DJs I follow are super model first and a DJ second 🙂

Indeed. My X-S20 just arrived, and have 6k 10-bit 4:2:2 with good(ish?) AF and IBIS in a body roughly bigger than a GX85. 4-5 years ago, it was unthinkable.

But ergos are all over the place - this a thing that could improve. I've taken my GH2 out of the dry box to use it to test the last m43 lenses that I'm selling. First, this thing is freaking small - since the GH3 we forgot how small it was. And, even small...look at the image.

Left dial, focus area, with a lever to switch the AF mode. Main dial (with 3 custom positions!) with two lever, one to set drive mode and other is the on-off switch (in a amazing position, very easy to access with the thumb). 

I miss this a lot.

(and good internal mics - the GH2 mics are VERY good, much better than all the other Pannys that I had (never had a GH5 or G9, though).

..the real problem with these is going to be the severe overheating. A7IV already overheats in a full size Alpha body, these will toast faster than white bread.

I'd be happy to talk about these things.
In terms of ChatGPT, it is predictive-text on steroids with no understanding of reality or logic or anything else other than parroting the internet back to us, therefore it is probably a better bet than most online replies!

1 - Yep, they are. As I said sometimes here, I'm in a Telegram group that have a lot of younger "content creators", mostly talking about gear shopping, but sometimes giving filmmaking hints to each other. NEVER in this almost 8 months there I saw a link to some forum or webpage. Ever. All links are to Youtube or Instagram.

2 - Which leads from the previous point. People want videos, nobody reads anymore. Even some blog guys like Gordon Laing or Robin Wong are putting more efforts on Youtube.
I like Youtube to see some tests like AF, recording the camera screen to show how the detection is ocurring, but few people do that. Or to show some ergonomics. The rest, I prefer text, but is a dying preference.

3 - Fanboyism is a long staple in camera community. For me is a human necessity to prove themselves right - I bought this camera / lens, and I will defend that I made THE BEST decision. And as @MrSMWsaid, there is a ‘you don’t need anything new’ mantra - which, specially for stills, is very true. Video is still being improved, but for stills the only tangible upgrade was in the AF section. 

4 - For experienced people to comunicate with newer genrations is hard - because these people tend to lend long explanations telling just not HOW to solve a problem, but also WHY that was the solution. Which is a good thing - it increases the knowledge of the reader.
But nowadays people wants FAST solutions, don't want to even search for themselves. Last week in the already mentioned Telegram group, one guy made a very basic question, and I gave him the solution.
THE NEXT message in the channel was another guy...making THE SAME question. Yeah, he not only did not made a previous search, but did not even to bother read THE PREVIOUS MESSAGE. And this is the norm.

Which is partly why I use a pair of them plus an S1H!

S5 II have internal fan and is one of the cheapest FF video cameras - and Panasonic have the best heat management, the GX9 that I had never even get warmer recording 4k (probably best chipset design).

Indeed, just look at the leap forwards in improvement from GPT2 to GPT3
Or each generation from Midjourney V1 vs V2 vs V3 vs V4 vs vV5 (and those 5 generations only took a single year to happen!!!). 
https://aituts.com/midjourney-versions/ 
We might laugh at the efforts of generative AI video right now, but they're no worse than Midjourney V1 was.... 
Perhaps 50/50 odds we'll have the Midjourney V5 equivalent for video by 2028:
https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener 
Or maybe even higher odds than that... 
https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/will-we-have-end-to-end-ai-generate-12f2be941361 
https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/will-we-have-end-to-end-ai-generate-de41c9309e38 
I agree with your disagreeing.
That's a good analogy! 
And if it is carefully/appropriately managed, you can even have a change in voice actor who is doing these characters, and almost none of the fans will notice or care. 
Another good analogy. It is indeed very likely, I feel, that the country as a whole will be massively better off and wealthier thanks to AI. But... there will also be huge numbers of individuals (such as those middle aged textile workers) who will be a lot worse off. 
We'll be able to have super niche "micro celebrity AI avatars"
At the moment, celebrities need a certain amount of broad appeal. As  you said, they need to avoid offending their fans. So end up appealing to the common denominator, because what might appeal to one section of the fan base could drive away other fans who get offended by it. But once you're freed from the physical constraints, then an "AI celebrity" could cater to any and all of these micro niche fanbases. 
"I think there is a world market for about five computers." ~ IBM's president, Thomas J Watson (said in the early 1940's) 
Nah, my Raspberry Pi can run a LLM. (ok, only a baby-ChatGPT that's quite cut down, and somewhat crippled. But even if I want to run a LLM that's quite close to the power of GPT3, that only costs me much much less than a $1/hr, in fact, more like a handful of cents per hour. It is cheap to run a LLM)
It's predicted as highly like that even GPT4 can be run on consumer grade hardware by next year:
https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-a-gpt4equivalent-model-be-able 
What you're thinking about, is the costs to train GPT4 from scratch. That's VERY EXPENSIVE! 
But still, it isn't quite as bad as you think. If a government wanted to do it, then absolutely any government in the OCED  could do this, they could do it ten times over. Likewise, there are hundreds, if not thousands, of companies in the world which could train the next GPT4 if they wanted to. (GPT4 would've cost roughly the same order of magnitude as $100M in costs, waaaay out of reach for you and me, but easily within reach of many many other organizations) 
But they won't, because the costs to train their own GPT4 vs the profits they could make (as AI is quickly becoming a very competitive space!) just isn't worth it. 
The good news though, is that costs for training are dropping drastically fast! 
Look at this prediction, it is highly likely that before 2030 it will cost under $10K to train from scratch a GPT3 quality LLM (i.e. any keen hobbyist can do it themselves!):
https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-a-gpt3-quality-model-be-traine 
And that's yet another reason why there are not hundreds of other companies training their own GPT4, why put that risk into it if you're not already an industry leader in this? When your $100M+ investment could quickly within a few short years be worth next to nothing. You need a solid business plan to recoup your costs fast. OpenAI can do that, because they're massively funded with Microsoft's backing, and they have a first mover advantage. 
Too late, that genie left the bottle long ago. 
 

Indeed, just look at the leap forwards in improvement from GPT2 to GPT3
Or each generation from Midjourney V1 vs V2 vs V3 vs V4 vs vV5 (and those 5 generations only took a single year to happen!!!). 
https://aituts.com/midjourney-versions/ 
We might laugh at the efforts of generative AI video right now, but they're no worse than Midjourney V1 was.... 
Perhaps 50/50 odds we'll have the Midjourney V5 equivalent for video by 2028:
https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener 
Or maybe even higher odds than that... 
https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/will-we-have-end-to-end-ai-generate-12f2be941361 
https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/will-we-have-end-to-end-ai-generate-de41c9309e38 
I agree with your disagreeing.
That's a good analogy! 
And if it is carefully/appropriately managed, you can even have a change in voice actor who is doing these characters, and almost none of the fans will notice or care. 
Another good analogy. It is indeed very likely, I feel, that the country as a whole will be massively better off and wealthier thanks to AI. But... there will also be huge numbers of individuals (such as those middle aged textile workers) who will be a lot worse off. 
We'll be able to have super niche "micro celebrity AI avatars"
At the moment, celebrities need a certain amount of broad appeal. As  you said, they need to avoid offending their fans. So end up appealing to the common denominator, because what might appeal to one section of the fan base could drive away other fans who get offended by it. But once you're freed from the physical constraints, then an "AI celebrity" could cater to any and all of these micro niche fanbases. 
"I think there is a world market for about five computers." ~ IBM's president, Thomas J Watson (said in the early 1940's) 
Nah, my Raspberry Pi can run a LLM. (ok, only a baby-ChatGPT that's quite cut down, and somewhat crippled. But even if I want to run a LLM that's quite close to the power of GPT3, that only costs me much much less than a $1/hr, in fact, more like a handful of cents per hour. It is cheap to run a LLM)
It's predicted as highly like that even GPT4 can be run on consumer grade hardware by next year:
https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-a-gpt4equivalent-model-be-able 
What you're thinking about, is the costs to train GPT4 from scratch. That's VERY EXPENSIVE! 
But still, it isn't quite as bad as you think. If a government wanted to do it, then absolutely any government in the OCED  could do this, they could do it ten times over. Likewise, there are hundreds, if not thousands, of companies in the world which could train the next GPT4 if they wanted to. (GPT4 would've cost roughly the same order of magnitude as $100M in costs, waaaay out of reach for you and me, but easily within reach of many many other organizations) 
But they won't, because the costs to train their own GPT4 vs the profits they could make (as AI is quickly becoming a very competitive space!) just isn't worth it. 
The good news though, is that costs for training are dropping drastically fast! 
Look at this prediction, it is highly likely that before 2030 it will cost under $10K to train from scratch a GPT3 quality LLM (i.e. any keen hobbyist can do it themselves!):
https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-a-gpt3-quality-model-be-traine 
And that's yet another reason why there are not hundreds of other companies training their own GPT4, why put that risk into it if you're not already an industry leader in this? When your $100M+ investment could quickly within a few short years be worth next to nothing. You need a solid business plan to recoup your costs fast. OpenAI can do that, because they're massively funded with Microsoft's backing, and they have a first mover advantage. 
Too late, that genie left the bottle long ago. 
 

Time for us to ditch Sound Mixing etc and become "social media influencers"??? 

Indeed, just look at the leap forwards in improvement from GPT2 to GPT3
Or each generation from Midjourney V1 vs V2 vs V3 vs V4 vs vV5 (and those 5 generations only took a single year to happen!!!). 
https://aituts.com/midjourney-versions/ 
We might laugh at the efforts of generative AI video right now, but they're no worse than Midjourney V1 was.... 
Perhaps 50/50 odds we'll have the Midjourney V5 equivalent for video by 2028:
https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener 
Or maybe even higher odds than that... 
https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/will-we-have-end-to-end-ai-generate-12f2be941361 
https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/will-we-have-end-to-end-ai-generate-de41c9309e38 
I agree with your disagreeing.
That's a good analogy! 
And if it is carefully/appropriately managed, you can even have a change in voice actor who is doing these characters, and almost none of the fans will notice or care. 
Another good analogy. It is indeed very likely, I feel, that the country as a whole will be massively better off and wealthier thanks to AI. But... there will also be huge numbers of individuals (such as those middle aged textile workers) who will be a lot worse off. 
We'll be able to have super niche "micro celebrity AI avatars"
At the moment, celebrities need a certain amount of broad appeal. As  you said, they need to avoid offending their fans. So end up appealing to the common denominator, because what might appeal to one section of the fan base could drive away other fans who get offended by it. But once you're freed from the physical constraints, then an "AI celebrity" could cater to any and all of these micro niche fanbases. 
"I think there is a world market for about five computers." ~ IBM's president, Thomas J Watson (said in the early 1940's) 
Nah, my Raspberry Pi can run a LLM. (ok, only a baby-ChatGPT that's quite cut down, and somewhat crippled. But even if I want to run a LLM that's quite close to the power of GPT3, that only costs me much much less than a $1/hr, in fact, more like a handful of cents per hour. It is cheap to run a LLM)
It's predicted as highly like that even GPT4 can be run on consumer grade hardware by next year:
https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-a-gpt4equivalent-model-be-able 
What you're thinking about, is the costs to train GPT4 from scratch. That's VERY EXPENSIVE! 
But still, it isn't quite as bad as you think. If a government wanted to do it, then absolutely any government in the OCED  could do this, they could do it ten times over. Likewise, there are hundreds, if not thousands, of companies in the world which could train the next GPT4 if they wanted to. (GPT4 would've cost roughly the same order of magnitude as $100M in costs, waaaay out of reach for you and me, but easily within reach of many many other organizations) 
But they won't, because the costs to train their own GPT4 vs the profits they could make (as AI is quickly becoming a very competitive space!) just isn't worth it. 
The good news though, is that costs for training are dropping drastically fast! 
Look at this prediction, it is highly likely that before 2030 it will cost under $10K to train from scratch a GPT3 quality LLM (i.e. any keen hobbyist can do it themselves!):
https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-a-gpt3-quality-model-be-traine 
And that's yet another reason why there are not hundreds of other companies training their own GPT4, why put that risk into it if you're not already an industry leader in this? When your $100M+ investment could quickly within a few short years be worth next to nothing. You need a solid business plan to recoup your costs fast. OpenAI can do that, because they're massively funded with Microsoft's backing, and they have a first mover advantage. 
Too late, that genie left the bottle long ago. 
 

https://leicarumors.com/2023/07/26/the-latest-af-35-150mm-f-2-2-8-full-frame-lens-is-rumored-to-be-samyangs-first-leica-l-mount-lens.aspx
I think they have people on social media checking which lens have the highest request. 

The problem with any effort to stop technology is that it won't work in the long run. Right now, there are only a handful of companies that have the computing power to run an LLM like ChatGPT, so it's somewhat feasible to control. But once the technology can run on your home PC, there is no amount of legislation or unionization that can control its use.
And that statement is not to say anything is good or bad. The reality is simply that we have very limited ability to control the distribution and use of software.
Switching to opinion mode, I believe that the technology is ultimately a good thing. I think limiting the use of technology, in order to preserve jobs, is bad in the long run. I believe it's better for humans if cars drive themselves and we don't need to employ human truck drivers. It's better for humans to give everyone the ability to make entire movies, simply by describing it to a computer. The big problem is that our economic model won't support it. And I'm not talking about studios and unions--the fundamental problem is that digital goods can be infinitely duplicated at no cost, and every economy is based on shifting finite packages. The same applies to AI, but with the new meta-layer being that the actual, duplicated product of AI isn't a digital good, it's a skillset for producing that digital good.
I don't have all the right words to describe exactly what I'm trying to say. The example I give is that right now, self driving cars are not as good as people. But the moment any car can drive itself better than a human, every car will be able to. We have to keep training new truck drivers to do the same task. That is not true of a duplicatable AI skillset. So to bring this back to my original point, we can try to prevent self driving cars in an effort to protect truck drivers, but someday, someone will still achieve it and at that moment, the software will exist, and unlike a physical product, it can be copied all over the world simultaneously.
So instead of preventing technology or its use, we need to adapt our economic model to better serve humans in lieu of our new abilities.

Nice article! My perspective is as a software engineer, at a company that is making a huge effort to leverage AI faster and better than the industry. I am generally less optimistic than you that AI is "just a tool" and will not result in large swaths of the creative industry losing money.
The first point I always make is that it's not about whether AI will replace all jobs, it's about the net gain or loss. As with any technology, AI tools both create and destroy jobs. The question for the economy is how many. Is there a net loss or a net gain? And of course we're not only concerned with number of jobs, but also how much money that job is worth. Across a given economy--for example, the US economy--will AI generated art cause clients/studios/customers to put more, or less net money into photography? My feeling is less. For example, my company ran an ad campaign using AI generated photos. It was done in collaboration with both AI specialists to write prompts, and artists to conceptualize and review. So while we still used a human artist, it would have taken many more people working many more hours to achieve the same thing. The net result was we spent less money towards creative on that particular campaign, meaning less money in the photography industry. It's difficult for me to imagine that AI will result in more money being spent on artistic fields like photography. I'm not talking about money that creatives spend on gear, which is a flow of money from creatives out, I'm talking about the inflow from non-creatives, towards creatives.
The other point I'll make is that I don't think anyone should worry about GPT-4. It's very competent at writing code, but as a software engineer, I am confident that the current generation of AI tools cannot do my job. However, I am worried about what GPT-5, or GPT-10, or GPT-20 will do. I see a lot of articles--not necessarily Andrew's--that confidently say AI won't replace X because it's not good enough. It's like looking at a baby and saying, "that child can't even talk! It will never replace me as a news anchor." We must assume that AI will continue to improve exponentially at every task, for the foreseeable future. In this sense, "improve" doesn't necessarily mean "give the scientifically accurate answer" either. Machine learning research goes in parallel with psychology research. A lot of machine learning breakthroughs actually provide ideas and context for studies on human learning, and vice versa. We will be able to both understand and model human behavior better in future generations.
My third point is that I disagree that people are fundamentally moved by other people's creations. You write
I think that only a very small fraction of moviegoers care at all about who made the content. This sounds like an argument made in favor of practical effects over CGI, and we all know which side won that. People like you and I might love the practical effects in Oppenheimer simply for being practical, but the big CGI franchises crank out multiple films each year worth billions of dollars. If your argument is that the people driving the entertainment market will pay more for carefully crafted art than generic, by the numbers stories and effects, I can't disagree more.
Groot, Rocket Raccoon, and Shrek sell films and merchandise based off face and name recognition. What percent of fans do you think know who voiced them? 50%, ie 100 million+ people? How many can name a single animator for those characters? What about Master Chief from Halo (originally a one dimensional character literally from Microsoft), how many people can tell you who wrote, voiced, or animated any of the Bungie Halo games? In fact, most Halo fans feel more connected to the original Bungie character than the one from the Halo TV series, despite having a much more prominent actor portrayal.
My final point is not specifically about AI. I live in an area of the US where, decades ago, everyone worked in good paying textile mill jobs. Then the US outsourced textile production overseas and everyone lost their jobs. The US and my state economies are larger than ever. Jobs were created in other sectors, and we have a booming tech sector--but very few laid off, middle aged textile workers retrained and started a new successful career. It's plausible that a lot of new, unknown jobs will spring up thanks to AI, but it's also plausible that "photography" shrinks in the same way that textiles did.

Wow, I didn't think it was possible to sink any lower with trashy reality tv?
O ye of little faith!
What new fresh horrors is this, deep fake AI merged with the worst aspects of "reality" tv? Yes, yes it is 

I worked on medium-sized productions and have friends who worked on high-budget shows for HBO and Netflix. They only film RAW for VFX plates and everything else is in ProRes. 

OK, reading a lot of negative reports about the Samyang 35-150.
Slightly bigger and heavier than the Tamron and suffers from severe lens creep.
Erm, not good. OK, if cost-saving is your thing and why would it not be, but for me it does not compare with the Tamron.
But then there has been no mention of it becoming available anyway...

Interesting..  I thought this was a good explainer:
TLDR; Nolan only mixes for the best theatres, and doesn't care about shittier ones.
I guess that arrogance has run its course, since you saw it on IMAX and still couldn't hear it!

There has just been leaked the upcoming release schedule for their slate of movies:

I've heard that von Neumann will be 7hrs long. 

There has just been leaked the upcoming release schedule for their slate of movies:

I've heard that von Neumann will be 7hrs long.