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Andrew Reid

The strong ARM of the law - Leica and DJI may be swept up in Trump's blacklisting war, as Huawei suppliers melt away under pressure

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Huawei case is small fraction and one of the side-turbulences of very logical and inevitably earthshaking movement always repeated in history - putting abnormal hypertrophy of one force to a balanced boundaries. We are children of era of USA domination that finally grew up to the most brutal and the most hypocrisy profile, trying to melt, exploit, dictate and control everybody and everywhere, with CNN+Hollywood+paid quasi intellectuals+adoration of consumerism brainstorming everything with mantra of democracy-for-oil-and-domination, which was so-so democracy just for USA, satellites and tampons - but, actually, it is very brief period.

Everything USA became is owed to comparatively worse history circumstances for others: being a over-the-ocean, but by technology also enough near-by-to-act shelter for numerous ingenious refugees from all over the world, and not at the last place being a hidden place for most of Nazi-robbed money/gold/patents and extremely great numbers of spectacular highend Nazi inventors - all at the same time while, say, 22 million Soviets selfdestructivelly crushed the spin of 10 millions soldiers of the comparatively most advanced war machine in history. So, USA evolves model of importing/stealing intellectual property of all world, paying good-to-attract-everyone with endlessly printed dollar based solely on military influence. And it is not fault of USA people - every single country would did the same, including main opponents.

Huawei case is self defense act of one monopolist against other whom USA policy brought up because of its one profit interest. Prolonged period of USA domination is greatly owed to Chinese's and other Far-East brutally lowpaid but patiently-waiting-workers to learn and catch proper time. It is essence of Chinese's inner 4000 years philosophy that helped them. USA and Chine are so economically intertwined and inter-depended, that it is astonishing why USA policy had to be so arrogant not to made mega deal with China against all other - as also at the time to made a deal with Russia when it was on economy knees. Now that chance is, luckily for the rest of the world, missed.

Actually it is so good and sage that resonance of conflict stay in the frame of economy - because whole concept of USA domination at the end rested on constant threat and emergency usage of military force pressure (that's why USA akka Nato bases and secret prisoners camps are all over the world).

Trump is puppet-voice of the force that, at the end, has last word in USA policy and controlled election decision: trust of highend military intelligence minds. Whole Wallstreet concept relay on possibility of non-controlled printing dolars - and frame for that could provide just USA military force. But now that force is becoming unusable because of military balance - USA lost in Syria, left Middle East whom so brutally destroyed, coming too late to Arctic, has to mostly stay restricted even in Venezuela - which just 15 years ago would be attacked and accomplished for one week. 

From the viewpoint of rest of the world, it is happy news that most powerful countries finally are solving their domination greed openly between themselves. How symbolically relaxing is that field of crash is 5g - that most of the (Second and Third) world neither will see, neither miss probably for next 3 decades. 

 

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Well, now that Chinese company found out their weak spot on how much they depend on foreign patents they will start to develop their own.

Stakes are too high and too sudden, thus a sort of an agreement will be reached. But in the long run Chinese government has learnt a lesson, develop indigenous critical components.

 They have the market, the mfg capabilities and R&D resources. China is not the USSR. And the world is not like it was back then. 

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How many Chinese companies are forced to find a 50% local partner to share their technology with? Zero. What's it look like when a US or European company wants to operate a business in China.

Are Facebook, Google, freely available in China? In contrast are there restrictions on Chines companies like TikTok, WeChat, etc across the world?

It's amazing to me how China wields just one of their tools, censorship (which on it's own you should be objecting too!), as an economic tool to keep businesses out and you all don't have a problem with it. And by the way it's not Facebook or Google's fault that Europe doesn't have good equivalents. How hard is it to start a social network? The US and Europe mostly have free markets (and please don't think European markets are entirely free).

China has a state run policy designed to put foreign companies at a disadvantage.  Huawei didn't have to set up a 50% joint venture with an American or European company, Huawai benefits from import rules that can result in paying less customs duties than a US company within the United States. China is fighting tooth and nails not to be reclassified as anything other than a developing country. It's laughable.  It amazes me how excited European consumers are to buy Huawei phones considering the long term cost to their own jobs and well being.

At this point even Samsung has my sympathy because they are fighting against Chinese companies that can absorb years of losses and profits due to government funds and loans. It is not a level playing field, China is making sure of it, so Trump may have faulty logic but he's drawing the right conclusion. Europe needs to invest massively in R&D and new ways of manufacturing or the continent is in trouble. Just look at recent Der Spiegel issue (for those of you in Germany) as an example of where entire German industries are facing issues both self-made and foreign made because they had to transfer decades worth of know-how to their Chinese joint-venture companies.

I have no beef with the Chinese nor China's government which has lift up the country economically but I do have a major problem with pretending that Huawei (of all companies! I encourage you to read up more about how that company is run and by whom) is worthy of a second of our sympathy.

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26 minutes ago, OniBaba said:

Well, now that Chinese company found out their weak spot on how much they depend on foreign patents they will start to develop their own.

Stakes are too high and too sudden, thus a sort of an agreement will be reached. But in the long run Chinese government has learnt a lesson, develop indigenous critical components.

 They have the market, the mfg capabilities and R&D resources. China is not the USSR. And the world is not like it was back then. 

Exactly the world is not like back then (as in a year ego even). The United States, Europe, South America, etc have a choice of which businesses they let operate in their respective countries. So if for example European countries decide that it's unfair that their citizens have to pay social security, health care, etc and Chinese workers don't have equal protection they can decide to block Chinese products from their markets. If they find that German companies are forced to share their know-how with a Chinese company, know-how that may have taken decades to develop, and are subsequently used in a 100% Chinese company to compete against the join-venture then Germany may say that this Chinese company may not import it's goods in Germany/Europe.

What the world is like is exactly what is being reevaluated. European bureaucrats even before Trump were starting to reevaluate their economic dealings with China and what the cost was to European business. This will only accelerate it. China won't have it as easy in the future. But the Chinese government is at this point still one step ahead. Their Silkroad initiative is all about extending it's economic power to the world and making entire economic regions like Africa dependent on them. Note that some African countries are already voting differently in the UN on issues like Taiwain, Tibet, Uighurs, etc because of China's growing influence. Chinese companies are never truly independent of the state. So Huawei isn't just a company ... it's a tool to extend the Chinese way of doing business.

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7 hours ago, webrunner5 said:

I think the whole world needs to wake up and understand depending pretty much on China to make their stuff is a huge mistake. I am not talking as a personal insult to China. I respect what they have done. But the whole damn world is putting their eggs in one basket here. Nations are loosing their national identity, people out of work. This is leading to a F ing total disaster. You can't have one country making everything and the rest just going belly up, and not abide by the rules.

That is the trouble with this crap. Trump is just a small ass piece of all of this. Britain is just about to be a nobody country soon. Other European countries are nearly in a worse shape. This is all some serious shit. South America is going to shit also. It Ain't going to get better keeping it the way it is. This has no good end without some big ass change. A hell of a lot of countries are to blame for letting this crap happen.

The US has transitioned very successfully to a services based economy. I don't understand why so many Americans want the polluting labour intensive factories back and to plunder the land for massive amounts of raw material. That's why you have China, they are willing to do all of this and pollute their environment, so you don't have to, and so your kids can go to a nice school, get a good education and have a nice job that doesn't depend on manual labour.

Other European countries are not in bad shape either. Like the US industry, Germany has maintained a lot of high skilled manufacturing and services. Premium car manufacturing, premium technology products, Leica, etc... It's far better than industrial component manufacture for cheap goods, believe me. London has a booming creative economy and massive financial sector. Sure, the steel industry is close to collapse... But it employs a tiny fraction of what a single shop chain does in the UK... So why does it matter? As long as these people can get satisfying jobs at other companies and the economy continues to grow, and we import steel... it doesn't.

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I think a lot of people is over worry about the collapse of Huawei and put all the damn on Trump. As someone already mentioned, the sanction shouldn’t be only Trump’s own will but a consensus of the parliament and other countries in the alliance. We can punish a theft by legal system but that’s the only way to suppress a misbehaved company diplomatically.

When prosecuting Huawei is being seen as no difference from killing innovation, we all seem leaving the hazard of nation and personal security behind just because of its tempting technology and affordable price. “Free” is expensive, not to mention that you may have to pay real money and your privacy to exchange for the sweetie technology. I am not going to dig too much deeper on this issue but would like to share some figure that the fall of Huawei and Chinese gadget may not as tragic as you thought.

Do you still think China has the lowest labor wage on earth? It used to be but it’s not anymore.

In 2012, an iPhone assembly line worker got paid for about US$362 per month.

In 2018, the wage just goes up to US$579, 60% increment after 6 years. It is reasonable because the labors deserve a better paid for economic growth.

However, the fact is the the wage of a Vietnamese factory labor is between US$150-250, which already lower than the level of China in 2012. Indeed, Samsung has already made their smartphone in Vietnam since 2014 and several photo equipment manufacturers such as Fujifilm, Nikon, Olympus, Pentax or Tamron are making their cameras or lenses in Philippine, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam. China is not the only or the most attractive place any more. Panasonic even moved back several assembly line to Japan because the entire cost in China is not lower than in Japan due to the tax policy and exchange rate.

Another concern of chips manufacturing in China is also not a too big deal in the high end area. China has Fab plants making chips but most of them are two generations behind the updated process. If my information is correct, the most advanced process in China should be 14nm so far which is not in pace with the conventional 12nm, 10nm or 7nm process. Thanks to the enforced IP exchange policy in Mainland China, all manufacturers are just too aware of the aggressiveness and patient-theft record of this non-trustable country. That’s why they always keep the best on their own hand and build the Fab plants in US, Japan, Taiwan, Korea or Israel instead of in China. The convention technology in China is just able to produce medium or entry level products. So iPhone won’t be affected to much because they never rely on the Fab plant in China. But the manufacturing of circuit board might be affected in certain level, of course.

After all, DJI may be the only brand I feel empathy because it has good track record and well behaved in the industry. I hope it can be excluded finally and prove itself clean. Otherwise, Trump should teach GoPro to fly for filling in the gap.

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18 hours ago, crazyrunner33 said:

Per the article:

 

 

Then they need to move their design studios to countries with less egregious overreach.

In any case, unless they are actually actively getting materials from the US it would not matter. Once technology has left the US, it no longer has jurisdiction. The only thing the US can do is prohibit further export, something easily rectified by relocating the design studios to the UK or some other European country.

Frankly, I don't know why any European company would allow any sort of development to happen in the US for this very reason. 

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13 hours ago, Andrew Reid said:

The US has transitioned very successfully to a services based economy. I don't understand why so many Americans want the polluting labour intensive factories back and to plunder the land for massive amounts of raw material

Learn To Code, huh? Sorry to say that but IT DOESN'T WORK for everybody. 

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15 hours ago, Andrew Reid said:

The US has transitioned very successfully to a services based economy. I don't understand why so many Americans want the polluting labour intensive factories back and to plunder the land for massive amounts of raw material.

This is because skilled trade work pays well. The machinists, service technicians, welders and electricians make more than the engineers. Unlike the engineers, they aren't up to their eyeballs in debt with student loans(they get payed to learn). Value needs to be created and sold to support the service industries that don't pay nearly as well(besides banks)as the industrial services. 

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“The US has transitioned very successfully to a services based economy. I don't understand why so many Americans want the polluting labour intensive factories back and to plunder the land for massive amounts of raw material. That's why you have China, they are willing to do all of this and pollute their environment, so you don't have to, and so your kids can go to a nice school, get a good education and have a nice job that doesn't depend on manual labour.”

 

The desire for cheap gear does not justify moving laborious polluting industries. The American government and industry need to take responsibility and develop  procedures and methods to mitigate and manage harmful side effects to manufacturing. The fact that the polluting has been moved offshore thousands of miles away does not mean it does not effect you. The pollutants find there way here much like the cheap gear did. 

I have been to Guangzhou, I have seen the polluted air, it’s a sad realization when you see millions of young people being sacrificed in order to generate revenue for the country. Pollution doesn’t just go off into space it follows trade winds and ocean currents eventually normalizes in the atmosphere and ecosystem. Not only does China steal IP, force technology transfer and not open their market they damage your air and ocean all while making money off of you.

No one holds them accountable because the people who should be doing that are busy making money from it and the everyday consumer is happy with their latest cheap gadget. Donald trump is a silly incompetent individual and is probably doing this out of a temper tantrum but it is the right thing to do.

 

Everything has a cost and sooner or later people realize it. Millions of people rush to shop at Walmart and target then they wonder where their jobs went.  

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It's sad to say, but most of those defending China could really give two flying f... about the Chinese people. They just want their iPhones and Nike shoes... who cares how many suffer to produce them? Who could care less if they are all dying from pollution?... so long as it's over there... and not here. 

Regardless of how you feel about Trump... he's right! It doesn't matter how he arrived at the conclusion... He's just plain right. And those of you that would argue otherwise are unknowingly Pro-No Human Rights and Pro-Inequity. Some things matter more than gadgets.

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To read that man is right on anything other than he wasn't wrong himself at the time of the day when he said 'good morning' today is the most funny thing you could have written.

To say radical right wing is really concerned about people outside the border whoever they are, is no less.

No surprise though, I wish : -)

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2 hours ago, DBounce said:

It's sad to say, but most of those defending China could really give two flying f... about the Chinese people. They just want their iPhones and Nike shoes... who cares how many suffer to produce them? Who could care less if they are all dying from pollution?... so long as it's over there... and not here. 

Regardless of how you feel about Trump... he's right! It doesn't matter how he arrived at the conclusion... He's just plain right. And those of you that would argue otherwise are unknowingly Pro-No Human Rights and Pro-Inequity. Some things matter more than gadgets.

Wow :)

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17 hours ago, crazyrunner33 said:

This is because skilled trade work pays well. The machinists, service technicians, welders and electricians make more than the engineers. Unlike the engineers, they aren't up to their eyeballs in debt with student loans(they get payed to learn). Value needs to be created and sold to support the service industries that don't pay nearly as well(besides banks)as the industrial services. 

*Some* of them do. There are two types of engineers, those called "engineers" and those who are professionals. A lot of people have "engineer" as part of their job title when they are not actually engineers professionally (they are really technicians, which is at the bottom of the food chain when it comes to pay). Real engineers get paid considerably more than technical service people. Sort of like how blue collar people are called "middle class", when the actual middle class are professionals and wealthy merchants, such as lawyers, bankers and entrepreneurs (basically anyone with the resources of nobility but not of noble birth). Or physicians being called "doctors" when they are nothing of the sort (real doctors are people who have a PhD degree, which is an old qualification that existed hundreds of years before physicians began calling themselves doctors) and are not academically entitled to the honorific.

You don't need to incur massive student loan debt. A lot of it depends on the choices you make when going to school and the level of costs you assume doing so. Also, most of the people who generate huge student debt that they can't easily repay are folk who have studied things that do not translate readily into marketable skills, such as liberal arts and such. Or they have gone to snob schools on the belief that alone will get them in the door when it comes to finding a job (which mostly does not happen - capable students can go to any school and their overall prospects remain the same). They are "educated", but that education is not worth anything, so when it comes to repaying the cost of that education they do not have the means to do it.

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2 hours ago, Mokara said:

*Some* of them do. There are two types of engineers, those called "engineers" and those who are professionals. A lot of people have "engineer" as part of their job title when they are not actually engineers professionally (they are really technicians, which is at the bottom of the food chain when it comes to pay). Real engineers get paid considerably more than technical service people. Sort of like how blue collar people are called "middle class", when the actual middle class are professionals and wealthy merchants, such as lawyers, bankers and entrepreneurs (basically anyone with the resources of nobility but not of noble birth). Or physicians being called "doctors" when they are nothing of the sort (real doctors are people who have a PhD degree, which is an old qualification that existed hundreds of years before physicians began calling themselves doctors) and are not academically entitled to the honorific.

You don't need to incur massive student loan debt. A lot of it depends on the choices you make when going to school and the level of costs you assume doing so. Also, most of the people who generate huge student debt that they can't easily repay are folk who have studied things that do not translate readily into marketable skills, such as liberal arts and such. Or they have gone to snob schools on the belief that alone will get them in the door when it comes to finding a job (which mostly does not happen - capable students can go to any school and their overall prospects remain the same). They are "educated", but that education is not worth anything, so when it comes to repaying the cost of that education they do not have the means to do it.

Most of the engineers I'm speaking of are ones who passed the PE, not some liberal arts major with a job title. The job market is saturated with engineers coming out of college, but the trades are in high demand with few applicants(mainly due to the death of votech during high school). 

With that said, I know a few engineers who broke 6 figure, but I know just as many heavy equipment techs and crane riggers that broke 6 figure. And most of the sparkies are making around 80k. 

 

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sparkies are one of the hardest trade skills to get into. I was lucky when I was very young I was a Ham Radio operator just like my father. That opened up a lot of opportunities when I was a lot older. Top pay for a reason, it is dangerous as heck, especially if you are not really good at it, or get lazy. No real room for errors.

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Look at this man and how he believes on both:

- free market -- he doesn't directly make mention to the US government in charge launching the ban;

- humbleness -- without lacking the perspective who they are and what they have... 2-3 years in front as far as 5G concerns is an eternity (call it "cheap gadgets"... : P) and the ultimate reason why the ban decree popped up now.

 

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Hey, what that graphic says it is something a bit different than literally took from such interpretation... the art of it, BTW... pure political (sales? : D) marketing LOL : )

Those Obama numbers were *stable* between 12,300 and 12,400 along the last two years of Obama Presidency and actually took off indeed, however, in the last couple of months of Obama before he left the White House!

Trump was elected but his rule is from late January '17 (not before!) while keep going in the next months (let alone the fact that the first months of Trump are result of Obama's administration, not the opposite!), but just reaching a bit over 12,700 in September '18...

 

Last but not least, these figures indicate something other though:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls

Take a look on that monthly peak early 2010 (Obama took office a year earlier) when surpassed the 500 mark.

During Trump period, it doesn't even reach 400 in any month of his administration... More or less, similar to Obama's years, without mention that peak already referred across the first half of 2010!

 

Render to Caesar the things that are Caesar's...

 

What about that then? (E ; -)

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