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Nikon High End DSLR/Mirrorless Rumors


Dustin
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The main problem Nikon have (one that is shared by Canon and a few of the other minor players) is that they do not have access to state of the art processors like Sony and Panasonic do. As a result they will not be able to compete effectively when it comes to cutting edge mirrorless designs. They have to rely on older technology used in DSLR systems to have advanced products, and those are pretty mature where game changer improvements are unlikely.

Sony and Panasonic have the basic tools at their disposal that allows them to take big steps forward with every iteration, whereas the tool set available to Nikon only allows them to take small steps forward. At some point those small steps are going to leave them so far behind that people will abandon the mark and move to something else, and that something else will very likely have the word "Sony" or "Panasonic" on the faceplate.

In the long run Nikon may end up being a lens manufacturer, but even there they face stiff competition from more forward thinking companies.

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1 hour ago, tugela said:

The main problem Nikon have (one that is shared by Canon and a few of the other minor players) is that they do not have access to state of the art processors like Sony and Panasonic do. As a result they will not be able to compete effectively when it comes to cutting edge mirrorless designs. They have to rely on older technology used in DSLR systems to have advanced products, and those are pretty mature where game changer improvements are unlikely.

Sony and Panasonic have the basic tools at their disposal that allows them to take big steps forward with every iteration, whereas the tool set available to Nikon only allows them to take small steps forward. At some point those small steps are going to leave them so far behind that people will abandon the mark and move to something else, and that something else will very likely have the word "Sony" or "Panasonic" on the faceplate.

In the long run Nikon may end up being a lens manufacturer, but even there they face stiff competition from more forward thinking companies.

So you're saying they essentially, lack the infastructure that Sony/Panasonic has when it comes to video development/r&d? That would make logical sense especially since those companies are invested in the cinema world whereas Nikon is not...

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2 hours ago, Kisaha said:

D500 was way overpriced for what it was (1) a B camera to the big Nikons, or 2) A camera for bird-ers), I do not think that ,except Mercer and 1) and 2), anyone else was interested in this camera and the crop is unbelievable it isn't a slight x1.1 crop, it is a X2.25 crop and no DCI 4K on a 20mgpxls sensor (smallest in APS-C land). Samsung camera does full sensor read out since 2014 on a 28mgpxls sensor and it's (I think) slightly less cropped NX500 costed 600euros kit new back then.

Fuji did the video leap in just one generation, I can't understand why Nikon do not go all in in video, they do not even have any other cameras to protect on video features! 

Omg, can you give it a rest with Samsung? Nikon has lasted 100 years in the camera business and Samsung couldn't last 10. With all of the tech in the world, the best camera ever made, the NX1, nobody bought.

The NX500 has over a 2.5x crop. It was introduced at $799 and I bought mine 3 months later brand new for $350... so hardly a stellar sales performer.

If anything sinks Nikon, it will not be the lack of video functions, the iPhone will.

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I am just editing right now a paid job that will pay some bills with those NX cameras. Until Nikon has a better mirrorless, no, "I am not giving it a rest".

All the rest of your philology isn't relevant to anything really, because I have those for some years and I am still doing my job and hobby, while for all the Nikon's 100 years, there isn't one camera that I can do the same. Deny a reality doesn't make it a non-reality, it makes you live in denial.

Lack of video capabilities do not help being competitive in 2017 where billion of minutes are been uploaded every day. In the near future people will be choosing their "photos" from their videos.

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I think there are two major points that might keep Nikon alive for like the next 30 years or so. Firstly, It is not just the Camera that has the latest whoohaaa, it is also Lenses. People buy into systems. An example, a guy that started photography at end of the 90ies might still have Nikon film stuff lots of lenses and is to live the earth for probably about another 25years. Someone who thinks of himself as an amateur photographer has a fair amount of income at the end of his life will probably just buy what Nikon thows at him OR switch to a Sony compact and get rid of all the old gear :D if he can not be bothered anymore...

5 hours ago, Kisaha said:

All the rest of your philology isn't relevant to anything really, because I have those for some years and I am still doing my job and hobby, while for all the Nikon's 100 years, there isn't one camera that I can do the same. Deny a reality doesn't make it a non-reality, it makes you live in denial.

Lack of video capabilities do not help being competitive in 2017 where billion of minutes are been uploaded every day. In the near future people will be choosing their "photos" from their videos.

Secondly, there is the argument which Andrew brought to the table with his 1dxII. Got a camera will shot, done aka. shut up and shoot aka. what is good enough? GAS is just not getting you any good pictures, knowing your gear does though. This competitivenes argument is kind of used. Yes, it would be great if Canon and Nikon would have a FF dslr/mirrowless with 120fps in 4k with IBIS, RAW editable in body, straight up to YouPorn..... on the other hand I really don't care....

On the otherhand I do agree that Nikon hast to pull the finger out and f...ing get going with DEVELOPING a vision of what their future cameras shold do and then kind of execute on that....

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4 hours ago, Mattias Burling said:

You mean "some people". 

Personally I want full creative control over my images and will never settle for locked frames from a video.

I am not too sure in the near future, like 4 to 5 years, we will even be able to buy a Photo camera. they will all be video cameras with a Photo grab option. Just the opposite we have today. An 8k video camera, with 33.2mp still grabs, why not.

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24 minutes ago, webrunner5 said:

I am not too sure in the near future, like 4 to 5 years, we will even be able to buy a Photo camera. they will all be video cameras with a Photo grab option. Just the opposite we have today. An 8k video camera, with 33.2mp still grabs, why not.

Because you don't want no blurry pictures shot with a shutter speed of 1/50?

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13 hours ago, Kisaha said:

D500 was way overpriced for what it was (1) a B camera to the big Nikons, or 2) A camera for bird-ers), I do not think that ,except Mercer and 1) and 2), anyone else was interested in this camera and the crop is unbelievable it isn't a slight x1.1 crop, it is a X2.25 crop and no DCI 4K on a 20mgpxls sensor (smallest in APS-C land). Samsung camera does full sensor read out since 2014 on a 28mgpxls sensor and it's (I think) slightly less cropped NX500 costed 600euros kit new back then.

Fuji did the video leap in just one generation, I can't understand why Nikon do not go all in in video, they do not even have any other cameras to protect on video features! 

If you take the larger perspective of the stills camera market, the D500 is great value. If Nikon didn't take such a long time with it I'd have upgraded from my D300 and still be shooting Nikon.

13 hours ago, tugela said:

The main problem Nikon have (one that is shared by Canon and a few of the other minor players) is that they do not have access to state of the art processors like Sony and Panasonic do. As a result they will not be able to compete effectively when it comes to cutting edge mirrorless designs. They have to rely on older technology used in DSLR systems to have advanced products, and those are pretty mature where game changer improvements are unlikely.

Nikon and Canon can call upon other Japanese partners if they want to, and they're not lacking in any cutting-edge tech either. Nikon's Expeed is co-produced with Fujitsu (now spun off and renamed to something I can't remember) and Expeed 4 was not too far behind the latest SoCs of its time (32 bit A5 ARM architecture). No one's analysed what the Expeed 5 has so I have no idea what it's in now.

BTW, top end DSLRs and top end mirrorless aren't too different - sensors and ASICs are similar to begin with, it's not like mirrorless requires significantly advanced resources.

1 hour ago, Phil A said:

Because you don't want no blurry pictures shot with a shutter speed of 1/50?

No one says you can't change the shutter speed? It just means that you have a camera that you choose to shoot stills or video with, but you still record a video stream regardless.

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I just don't agree with the notion that soon we will be pulling all our photos from videos. Sure this is already a possiblity on RED cameras and even 4K panasonics (and others) already and I've done it myself for YouTube cover photos. I understand that with time technology evolves and converges like our smart phones for example. But I think there will probably always be dedicated still cameras, even if the video method became popular. 

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I didn't mean that ALL the photos would be pulled from video files, I still have my analog equipment, nothing stops me from shoot film or super 8 cartridges (well, for the second, cost is a reason!). When I generalize (in general..) I mean the "masses", which is a more vague term than the people frequent this forum. Already people do that from their 4K footage, and our cameras have in built applications that do that.

I read that Japanese TV wants to broadcast 20K image in the Tokyo Olympics (they broadcasted 8K in specialized booths in the previous ones), I can imagine all the iPhone crowd choosing their best poses out of a few seconds of 20K images, I can see dedicated apps "choosing the best out of ALL your incredible moments" and the rest.

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1 hour ago, Kisaha said:

I didn't mean that ALL the photos would be pulled from video files, I still have my analog equipment, nothing stops me from shoot film or super 8 cartridges (well, for the second, cost is a reason!). When I generalize (in general..) I mean the "masses", which is a more vague term than the people frequent this forum. Already people do that from their 4K footage, and our cameras have in built applications that do that.

I read that Japanese TV wants to broadcast 20K image in the Tokyo Olympics (they broadcasted 8K in specialized booths in the previous ones), I can imagine all the iPhone crowd choosing their best poses out of a few seconds of 20K images, I can see dedicated apps "choosing the best out of ALL your incredible moments" and the rest.

I gotcha! For the record I love shooting 35 film and even recently bought a dedicated film scanner so my costs are essential the roll plus $3 for dev. But I understand tech will change as it does. We shall see what Nikon comes up with! Might suck might not but none of us can say for sure until they do something. Tbc.

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18 hours ago, Dustin said:

So you're saying they essentially, lack the infastructure that Sony/Panasonic has when it comes to video development/r&d? That would make logical sense especially since those companies are invested in the cinema world whereas Nikon is not...

No, that isn't what I am saying. Canon are quite capable of making video cameras, but when it comes to ILCs (and compacts for that matter) the core of the camera and where future development can result in big strides in capabilities is the processor. Both Sony and Panasonic have heavy investment in processors due to their involvement in other electronics markets that are dependent on processing power. So for them, investments in processors as a whole are leveraged by those other markets, and the results get incorporated into their cameras. All of the other companies who produce cameras don't have that underlying broader infrastructure and as a result they are always going to be a dollar short and a day late when it comes to the inherent capability of the cameras they make, and this is only going to get worse with time. The future of cameras will be planted squarely in constant improvements to the processors that run them.

This is an evolutionary change that will press forward relentlessly. Many small changes each of which will result in Sony and Panasonic getting that little bit further ahead, and eventually that will result in the extinction of the companies that can't keep up.

8 hours ago, Phil A said:

Because you don't want no blurry pictures shot with a shutter speed of 1/50?

So shoot at a higher shutter speed then. You are not forced to use 1/50.

13 hours ago, Mattias Burling said:

You mean "some people". 

Personally I want full creative control over my images and will never settle for locked frames from a video.

Considering that many if not most of the major companies are promoting frame grabs as a means of selecting desired stills, with all due respect I have to say that you are way off mark on this opinion.

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6 hours ago, leeys said:

Nikon and Canon can call upon other Japanese partners if they want to, and they're not lacking in any cutting-edge tech either. Nikon's Expeed is co-produced with Fujitsu (now spun off and renamed to something I can't remember) and Expeed 4 was not too far behind the latest SoCs of its time (32 bit A5 ARM architecture). No one's analysed what the Expeed 5 has so I have no idea what it's in now.

BTW, top end DSLRs and top end mirrorless aren't too different - sensors and ASICs are similar to begin with, it's not like mirrorless requires significantly advanced resources.

 

Sure, they can get some off the shelf processor, and that is what those companies do, but they are not going to be as competitive or cutting edge as the dedicated processors that Sony and Panasonic make. That is what we see right now. Canon's processors can't even handle 4K hardware compression without a fan to keep it cool, while Nikon have to use a crop without oversampling. The consequence of that is that it does not leave them with a whole lot of headroom to do other tasks on the fly, and as a result the capabilities of the systems are lacking compared to what we might see in a current model Sony or Panasonic.

Mirrorless do require significantly more processing power than DSLRs, because of the display demands. That is a disadvantage of a MILC relative to a DSLR, but on the other hand a MILC is inherently capable of adding way more tools to the camera than a DSLR (again, because of the display type used). When processing power reaches a certain tipping point, MILCs will simply be better than DSLRS period. IMO we are rapidly approaching that technological tipping point and when that happens we are going to see a sea change in the industry. The only question will be who is surfing that wave and who will miss it and be left behind.

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Dealing with Video for stills is total pita unless you are shooting bursts anyway. Videos in general are a pain in the ass because you have to watch the whole thing to get the information you need, which takes a lot of time.

Obviously it can be handy to have a Video to pull stills from, but stills are way more productive in the Long run, so it's not something that is going to dissapear

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Nikon still has a much larger market share and user base than anyone outside of Canon. They can drop a Nikon'd A7rII-type body with a LAEA style adapter or the current mount, it will be huge. The 1 Series has killer AF and they built out a lens lineup pretty quick. The blunder was the 1" sensor. But we also have the d810/d750/d600 successors coming soon and DSLR's still outsell mirrorless by quite a margin.

IMO the DL's were cancelled because the resources are being shifted to move into the mirrorless segment and compete with the FF E-mount.

Nikon isn't dead, funny seeing all the declarations that they're the next Kodak. Before the A7's, people were saying the EXACT same thing about Sony and how they F-ed up the A-mount and the E-mount was consumer crap.

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35 minutes ago, Trek of Joy said:

Nikon still has a much larger market share and user base than anyone outside of Canon. They can drop a Nikon'd A7rII-type body with a LAEA style adapter or the current mount, it will be huge. The 1 Series has killer AF and they built out a lens lineup pretty quick. The blunder was the 1" sensor. But we also have the d810/d750/d600 successors coming soon and DSLR's still outsell mirrorless by quite a margin.

IMO the DL's were cancelled because the resources are being shifted to move into the mirrorless segment and compete with the FF E-mount.

Nikon isn't dead, funny seeing all the declarations that they're the next Kodak. Before the A7's, people were saying the EXACT same thing about Sony and how they F-ed up the A-mount and the E-mount was consumer crap.

The problem I see Canon, Nikon has, is OK there is a bigger demand for DSLR's this week, but hell Canon, Nikon only update their top end stuff like once every 3 or 4 years. You know and I know 3 years from now is a lifetime is the Camera industry. No way, I doubt other than a Professionals, normal people  are not going to buy a DSLR 4 years from now.

Sony will have 5 new models out by then. Can Canon, especially Nikon, afford  to even do that?? Man I don't see good times for Nikon unless they come out with something that just blows us away this year.

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