Jump to content

AMC cinema chain saved / Reddit memes the stock market


Andrew Reid
 Share

Recommended Posts

As someone that was into crypto fairly early, there's a few things you need to look at with any of these projects.

Important numbers to investigate:

#1 - Bitcoin total coins: 18.6 million

#2 - Bitcoin current price: $33,500

#2 - Bitcoin Market Cap (current price x total coins): $706 billion

#3- Dogecoin total coins128 billion

#4 - Dogecoin current price: $0.04

#5 - Dogecoin Market Cap (current price x total coins): $5 billion

So let's say, in a perfect world, Dogecoin replaces Bitcoin as the top cryptocurrency and sucks up ALL of their market cap. No one trades Bitcoin anymore (it will never happen but let's just use it as an example). To calculate this you match their market caps. Dogecoin is currently 5 billion and Bitcoin is 706 billion. So Dogecoin would have to increase by 141x to be as popular as Bitcoin.

Even in that unrealistic scenario, Dogecoin price per coin would top out at $5.64. So that is the best case, pie in the sky, never going to happen scenario for Dogecoin.

Best case scenario for Dogecoin will be ten to twenty cents and then a correction back down here to five cents or so. I love what WSB is doing with $GME but I wouldn't get into that right now. Not with the power of Wall Street against it. Just not a place you want to put your money right now. 

Obligatory "I'm not a financial advisor" warning.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Neumann Films said:

As someone that was into crypto fairly early, there's a few things you need to look at with any of these projects.

Important numbers to investigate:

#1 - Bitcoin total coins: 18.6 million

#2 - Bitcoin current price: $33,500

#2 - Bitcoin Market Cap (current price x total coins): $706 billion

#3- Dogecoin total coins128 billion

#4 - Dogecoin current price: $0.04

#5 - Dogecoin Market Cap (current price x total coins): $5 billion

So let's say, in a perfect world, Dogecoin replaces Bitcoin as the top cryptocurrency and sucks up ALL of their market cap. No one trades Bitcoin anymore (it will never happen but let's just use it as an example). To calculate this you match their market caps. Dogecoin is currently 5 billion and Bitcoin is 706 billion. So Dogecoin would have to increase by 141x to be as popular as Bitcoin.

Even in that unrealistic scenario, Dogecoin price per coin would top out at $5.64. So that is the best case, pie in the sky, never going to happen scenario for Dogecoin.

Best case scenario for Dogecoin will be ten to twenty cents and then a correction back down here to five cents or so. I love what WSB is doing with $GME but I wouldn't get into that right now. Not with the power of Wall Street against it. Just not a place you want to put your money right now. 

Obligatory "I'm not a financial advisor" warning.

That time I thought "Bitcoin looks like its still going to drop, no thanks" when it sunk to about $250 6 or 7 years ago. Oops.

Chris

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Administrators
On 1/31/2021 at 10:01 AM, Robert Collins said:

On the other hand, destroying your own wealth, to try destroying a hedge fund (Melvin Capital) because you believe they are destroying other people is a life affirming virtuous circle?

Revenge trading is simply a destructive circle and I 100% guarantee you wont get your money back!!

Who says anybody needs to 'destroy their own wealth'! What is $10 to a guy on Reddit? I put $150 in. This was my small gesture to see a few of the greedy elite in our society suffer some losses. Everyone should do it to send the message that short selling on the industrial scale of the big hedge funds is borderline illegal and deeply immoral.

It is the occupy wall street movement - but this time it actually made a difference, rather than blocking a few roads and annoying the average joe trying to get to work.

Robert, if you think the 99% are going to shed a tear because Citidel go out of business, you're in for a big uphill argument. And nor should they shed a tear.

Collective action to save thousands of peoples jobs at Gamespot and wipe billions off the profits sheets of these malignant machines of capitalism. I am all for it. You should be too. Unless you are on the side of the greedy short sellers.

Warren Buffet I have a lot more respect for. Knows businesses inside and out and rewards the good ones with his investments. In turn, he gets stinking rich. Would be nice if he did as much charity as his friend Bill Gates though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Administrators
5 hours ago, Neumann Films said:

As someone that was into crypto fairly early, there's a few things you need to look at with any of these projects.

Important numbers to investigate:

#1 - Bitcoin total coins: 18.6 million

#2 - Bitcoin current price: $33,500

#2 - Bitcoin Market Cap (current price x total coins): $706 billion

#3- Dogecoin total coins128 billion

#4 - Dogecoin current price: $0.04

#5 - Dogecoin Market Cap (current price x total coins): $5 billion

So let's say, in a perfect world, Dogecoin replaces Bitcoin as the top cryptocurrency and sucks up ALL of their market cap. No one trades Bitcoin anymore (it will never happen but let's just use it as an example). To calculate this you match their market caps. Dogecoin is currently 5 billion and Bitcoin is 706 billion. So Dogecoin would have to increase by 141x to be as popular as Bitcoin.

Even in that unrealistic scenario, Dogecoin price per coin would top out at $5.64. So that is the best case, pie in the sky, never going to happen scenario for Dogecoin.

Best case scenario for Dogecoin will be ten to twenty cents and then a correction back down here to five cents or so. I love what WSB is doing with $GME but I wouldn't get into that right now. Not with the power of Wall Street against it. Just not a place you want to put your money right now. 

Obligatory "I'm not a financial advisor" warning.

Logical, and thoughtful, but still missing the point about the internet DOGECOIN experiment which is taking place.

It is not a profit for personal gain scheme or an investment. It is a fight back against centralised financial systems and centralised currencies.

It's also another collective action whereby if people stick together in great numbers, buy and hold long-term, just that in itself creates a valuable commodity, which can gain traction and be noticed as a serious rival to other currencies.

I don't see DOGECOIN so much as a currency, but as a ideological thing and a commodity.

Do we want to be at the mercy of VISA and PayPal in 10 years time? I know I don't.

PayPal take a big chunk of my revenue at EOSHD, and then apply a further 2.5% commission to currency conversion, on top of their absolutely shit rate. Recently they added another 3% on top of all that, bringing the total fees on each transaction close to 10%. That is extortion and monopolistic abuse. They are even shutting out competitors and other FinTech companies and banks, like Transferwise by making it impossible to withdraw USD to USD with no currency conversion - that's where the 3% fee kicks in if you trade in any other country with PayPal outside the US in dollars. I used to be able to transfer PayPal USD to my Transferwise bank account and use them to do the conversion to British Pound or Euro. Now, PayPal slap the 3% on it, to force me into their uncompetitive FX rate and further to that, the 2.5% FX commission on top of any transaction fees.

VISA and Mastercard - a duopoly, don't even charge that much. Less than 1%. With Stripe adding their 2%-ish. Much better but still a duopoly.

PayPal needs to die.

Short selling needs to die.

And currencies need to be decentralised, and needs to be fit for the new generation and modern world.

Fuck all the banks quite frankly. Time is up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, Andrew Reid said:

Who says anybody needs to 'destroy their own wealth'! What is $10 to a guy on Reddit? I put $150 in. This was my small gesture to see a few of the greedy elite in our society suffer some losses. Everyone should do it to send the message that short selling on the industrial scale of the big hedge funds is borderline illegal and deeply immoral.

It is the occupy wall street movement - but this time it actually made a difference, rather than blocking a few roads and annoying the average joe trying to get to work.

Robert, if you think the 99% are going to shed a tear because Citidel go out of business, you're in for a big uphill argument. And nor should they shed a tear.

Collective action to save thousands of peoples jobs at Gamespot and wipe billions off the profits sheets of these malignant machines of capitalism. I am all for it. You should be too. Unless you are on the side of the greedy short sellers.

Warren Buffet I have a lot more respect for. Knows businesses inside and out and rewards the good ones with his investments. In turn, he gets stinking rich. Would be nice if he did as much charity as his friend Bill Gates though.

I have enormous sympathy for your political views on this subject just not your financial ones.

I think you believe that you are part of a revolution when in reality you are just getting sucked into 'pump and dumps'

Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, Andrew Reid said:

Logical, and thoughtful, but still missing the point about the internet DOGECOIN experiment which is taking place.

I get it, I just think it's important to look at all of the factors. If it's only a few hundred bucks, no big deal. I've known people that got tens of thousands into a crypto days before it dropped and they were stuck for years trying to recoup.

Listen, I'm ALL for crypto and decentralization. I started a stock video site and cryptocurrency to try and decentralize stock video. A platform where creators get 100% of the commission. The problem is...even crypto is monopolized. Guess how much it costs to get a crypto onto any decent exchange? 40+ BTC. At least. Then the exchanges take a fee every time you make a transfer.

Monopolization follows innovation, inevitably.

Remember...Robinhood was supposed to be decentralized.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Administrators
2 hours ago, Robert Collins said:

I have enormous sympathy for your political views on this subject just not your financial ones.

I think you believe that you are part of a revolution when in reality you are just getting sucked into 'pump and dumps'

Who is dumping? Last time I looked GME is still above $250 and that's in spite of Wall Street trying to get it down.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Andrew Reid said:

Who is dumping? Last time I looked GME is still above $250 and that's in spite of Wall Street trying to get it down.

Some, I'm sure are. But probably a majority are like you and threw several hundred dollars in to the circus ring. They aren't jumping the barrier to get it back. Thats bad news for hedge funds. It's pump and popcorn.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, Andrew Reid said:

Who is dumping? Last time I looked GME is still above $250 and that's in spite of Wall Street trying to get it down.

Let me ask you a question? 2 years from now will GME stock be above US$250 or below US$250 a share. I think we can both agree it will be below US$250 a share. 

So if you currently hold GME stock valued at US$250 a share you have already been 'pumped and dumped'

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Robert Collins said:

Let me ask you a question? 2 years from now will GME stock be above US$250 or below US$250 a share. I think we can both agree it will be below US$250 a share. 

So if you currently hold GME stock valued at US$250 a share you have already been 'pumped and dumped'

$GME has a chance to settle above $250. Andrew seems to only be interested in the ideal, which is one that can’t really be argued and one that I believe in as well.

If we, the insignificants, have a chance to make our roar heard, we need to do it. Even if the sole purpose is to remind those on top that we exist and are still here, it’s worth it to send that reminder.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking at the development of this GME/AMC story very closely - put a couple bucks in both to see what hapṕens. In fact, if I was a financial journalist, would start right now to get deep in the events to make a book, for sure will be a good one, with a lot of lessons - and probably a bad taste in the end. But would be very good to show how the gears of the machine works.

About the stocks behaviour, purely from a trading point, between the Redditors and the funds. At friday, the prices were remarkbly stable after the usual jump in the pre-market - looks like the reddit had won. I guessed that probably the funds would spend the weekend developing a tactic together, and it looks like the case.

Friday was a critical day because was the last day to trade a lot of stock options - granted, did not research to see the gross numbers of the options. This options are a big part of the Redditors strategy - the other (and probably bigger) are the shorted stocks, which did not have a due date but you have to rent them and pay interest rate, that probably is going higher by the day too. These are their assumptions.

Yesterday both stocks dropped their price very sharply and continuously during the day. And are having another huge drop now in the premarket (GME at 156 and AMC at 9.91). To know what exactly happend you have to do a lot of digging in stock statistic sites - which I don't have the knowledge or time to do. Could be sells from people that cannot handle the losses (the late ones that arrived at the party) or, most probably, short ladder attacks orchestrated by the funds, since it looks like that the volumes are not very big. 

Don't know exactly the NYSE timings for the exercise of the options, which will make the funds that have put options buy GME/AMC shares; in teh WSB some people say that it is today. If it is the case, probably the funds will spend the day on the phone coordinating operations to make the price drop the most that they can, before having to buy the stocks to cover their puts and lower their losses.

But if I was a hedge fund, besides the short ladder attacks, I would have used the high volatility created by WSB to profit, shorting even more GME stocks before the orchestrated actions that they know will make the price go down - WBS have millions of user, but hedge funds have billions of money. Or even mounted a straddle option operation, which will profit if the stock goes very high or drop a lot (don't know the actual volatility numbers to see if it would be profitable, probably would be).

Rooting for WSB, but the odds probably are not on their side. And if the SEC would take a side in the question, for sure will be in the funds side - at least saying that "intervention was needed to prevent a sistemic risk to the market" or something like that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, hedge funds double shorting stock should maybe be more careful next time.

11 hours ago, Robert Collins said:

So if you currently hold GME stock valued at US$250 a share you have already been 'pumped and dumped'

Highly doubt the majority of GME stock holders care.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Administrators
7 hours ago, ntblowz said:

Ugh our US broker informed us they are halting buying share of GME/AMC/NOK until further notice, but you can still sell, so I guess Oz/NZ is out GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

 

Those institute is bloody corrupted to the core! 🤬

Yes, it's all a big corrupt fix up. Robinhood have received massive injections of capital to deal with placing huge orders from retail investors with the brokers, and yet they're STILL limiting GME and others to 1 stock per buy, or maximum 5 for some stocks AFAIK

This is illegal market manipulation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Administrators
11 hours ago, Robert Collins said:

Let me ask you a question? 2 years from now will GME stock be above US$250 or below US$250 a share. I think we can both agree it will be below US$250 a share. 

So if you currently hold GME stock valued at US$250 a share you have already been 'pumped and dumped'

Personally I don't care if it's worth $200 instead of $300 if it helps end the practice of short selling. Legal only for vestigial reasons, as Elon Musk says.

I don't even mind if eventually the stock goes back to the more realistic level of $10.

It was not an investment for me, for personal gain.

From now on, short selling at the scale of Melvin Capital and Citidel just got much riskier

And perhaps the stock market can go back to some semblance of ethics, as exemplified by Buffett... Rather than the Vegas casino certain people have turned it into.

As it is, it's a risk to the global economy.

SEC needs to look into the brokers BTW

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SEC will do nothing. In these cases, the financial authorities says that a big player going down could pose as a sistemic risk - like was Lehmann Brothers in 2008.

Confirmed by the prices today - AMC and GME were falling, Robinhood restores the GME buys, sharp rise in price, buys blocked again.

(in fact, if you still using Robinhood, you deserve it)

And AFAIK, brokers could list / delist stocks at their wish. The "marvels" of a free and unregulated market.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Administrators

Looks like it's not just Robinhood but others as well blocking buyers.

If they are going to do this, they should suspend the share altogether from trading, no buys, no selling.

The short-ladders seem to be working to push the price down in time for Tuesday, coincidentally the very day Melvin Capital and a lot of short sellers had a deadline to return the same number of stocks that they bought to the original holders.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Administrators

This article is behind a paywall of course.

https://www.ft.com/content/8a483767-6b55-40a2-b8a6-1439a2f56084

"The simplest and most common form of stock fraud is the “pump and dump.”

"It has three parts. Someone gets hold of some cheap shares; tells lies about why they are going to rise; and when they do, sells them, before the lies are discovered and the shares fall. This is against the law."

"But what if we take out the middle step — the lying? Instead of spinning falsehoods about the shares, our perpetrator shouts to anyone who will listen: “If we all buy these cheap shares, then the price will go up, and we’ll make money.” The reason to write about this now, of course, is Robinhood, Reddit and GameStop. The third step still has to happen, of course. When everyone sells to take profits, the shares will fall, and some people will lose a bundle. So far from denying this fact, however, our perp points it out. “This is a dangerous game,” he says, “your timing better be good.”

----

It is shocking how much bad journalism there is out there this week all of a sudden. The Reddit action was basically a buy-for-a-bet and of course to screw hedge fund short sellers, and then hold. Buy because you like the stock and hold. It was not a pump and dump get rich quick scheme. The share price got hammered today because of massive short laddering going on and virtually all brokers blocking buys.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...