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How long until ALEXA Mini hits $10k?


How many years until the ALEXA Mini hits the $10k USD mark?  

25 members have voted

  1. 1. How many years until the ALEXA Mini hits the $10k USD mark?

    • 1-5 years
      4
    • 5 years
      12
    • 5+ years
      9


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So with a used Alexa Classic now going for $5k USD and the Mini LF out, I’m wondering how many years it will take before the mini gets down in the sub $10k range.  Right now I see the mini still in the $30-40k USD range on the used market (i.e. eBay).  Five more years?  Maybe by then someone will finally catch up to the nearly 10 year old ALEV III sensor 😂

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I saw a used Amira at 10k the other day, they usually go for 20k, probably because of this pandemic though. 

The classic is 10 years old now, the mini is 5 years old. So if it devalues at the same rate as the Alexa classic you are looking at 5 more years. Hard to say if it will devalue quicker. 

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31 minutes ago, thebrothersthre3 said:

I saw a used Amira at 10k the other day, they usually go for 20k, probably because of this pandemic though. 

The classic is 10 years old now, the mini is 5 years old. So if it devalues at the same rate as the Alexa classic you are looking at 5 more years. Hard to say if it will devalue quicker. 

yeah that would make sense.  I was having a hard to finding the new price of an Alexa Classic to plot out it’s price drops per year.

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20 hours ago, Patrick B. said:

So with a used Alexa Classic now going for $5k USD

That's happened. But it is rare. 
If you had to buy an Alexa Classic today you'd be paying closer to $10K
But I expect by the end of the year $5K USD Arri Alexa Classics would be 

When will a Mini cost sub $10K? 
Look at how long it took for an Alexa Classic to drop to that price!

And I think the Arri Mini with its industry standard S35 sensor and (upscaled) 4K will stay at least semi relevant for a fair few more years. People are not going to just suddenly start hating and ditching the Mini within the next two or three years. Nope, won't happen! Which is what you basically need for a Mini to drop well below $10K. Thus I voted for 5+ years (although I wouldn't be surprised if before then a few rare bargains pop up slightly under $10K, but they'd be the exception and very rare)

17 hours ago, thebrothersthre3 said:

The classic is 10 years old now, the mini is 5 years old. So if it devalues at the same rate as the Alexa classic you are looking at 5 more years.

Didn't the Classic start at a bit higher price than the Mini? 

I think also the desire to use cameras that can be more compact, is a factor which lead to the Classic dropping in price, while the Mini is very popular. 

Personally I'm curious as well about what will happen to AMIRA prices, they're already really close to dropping into sub $10K prices, only a few thousand off!

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5 hours ago, IronFilm said:

That's happened. But it is rare. 
If you had to buy an Alexa Classic today you'd be paying closer to $10K
But I expect by the end of the year $5K USD Arri Alexa Classics would be 

When will a Mini cost sub $10K? 
Look at how long it took for an Alexa Classic to drop to that price!

And I think the Arri Mini with its industry standard S35 sensor and (upscaled) 4K will stay at least semi relevant for a fair few more years. People are not going to just suddenly start hating and ditching the Mini within the next two or three years. Nope, won't happen! Which is what you basically need for a Mini to drop well below $10K. Thus I voted for 5+ years (although I wouldn't be surprised if before then a few rare bargains pop up slightly under $10K, but they'd be the exception and very rare)

Didn't the Classic start at a bit higher price than the Mini? 

I think also the desire to use cameras that can be more compact, is a factor which lead to the Classic dropping in price, while the Mini is very popular. 

Personally I'm curious as well about what will happen to AMIRA prices, they're already really close to dropping into sub $10K prices, only a few thousand off!

Yeah the mini will remain more popular for that reason. But cameras will get even smaller with bigger sensors. Full frame is already kind of becoming a standard for bigger films. Other companies could rise up and devalue Arri cameras even more. Who knows really

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Heh, you can now get an ARRI Mini LF for "only seventy grand" (actually, I was surprised at how many Mini LF are for sale on Reduser! Quite a lot, more listed for sale than the original Mini it felt!):

http://www.reduser.net/forum/showthread.php?181104-Alexa-MiniLF-Ready-to-Shoot-V-Mount-Package

Damn, there was an AMIRA which sold for US$12.9K:
http://www.reduser.net/forum/showthread.php?180956-ARRI-Amira-4KUHD-amp-200fps-Premium-Licenses-Camera-(Used)

A sub $30K Arri Mini (now it "only" has to drop to a third of that price?)

http://www.reduser.net/forum/showthread.php?181099-Arri-Alexa-Mini-Ready-to-shoot-pacakge-(Only-29999)

Another at $30K: http://www.reduser.net/forum/showthread.php?181070-Arri-Alexa-Mini-Package

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I would wager that the original Mini will hold on to its value slightly longer due to its form factor.

I think the reason that people are offloading Alexa Classics for cheap is because of the size/weight and the fact they don't fit into the new paradigm of flexible rigging, gimbal use etc. Whereas with the Mini, the image will be good enough and the camera small enough.

So I'd say 5+ years. The market would first have to saturate with the new S35 Mini first and that might take some time especially with the global slowdown we're heading towards.

 

 

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3 hours ago, FranciscoB said:

Wow, an Amira for 12k... 

I know, a crazy price!

And the AMIRA has many benefits over the original Classic. (such as 4K uprez, S16 HD mode, P48 XLR, etc.. the only major benefit which stands out to me is to go for one of the "newer" Classics such as the Classic 4:3 which allows you do anamorphic that the AMIRA can't do)

Although if I was forced to spend my own money, I'd take the much cheaper ARRI Alexa Classic 16:9 for $6K over a $12.9K AMIRA!

3 hours ago, mrtreve said:

I would wager that the original Mini will hold on to its value slightly longer due to its form factor.

Yup!

3 hours ago, mrtreve said:

I think the reason that people are offloading Alexa Classics for cheap is because of the size/weight and the fact they don't fit into the new paradigm of flexible rigging, gimbal use etc. Whereas with the Mini, the image will be good enough and the camera small enough.


Note that not all "full size" ARRI cameras go for dirt cheap. 

If you want to buy an ARRI Alexa SXT you'll still be paying a LOT for one of them!

Think this is due to the fact that the SXT has so many extra new / modern features, that people will happily pay for that, and they're not put off by its size. 

Even with old Classics, an Alexa Classic 4:3 will sell for thousands of dollars more than a Alexa Classic 16:9 because people want that anamorphic feature!


 

3 hours ago, mrtreve said:

So I'd say 5+ years. The market would first have to saturate with the new S35 Mini first and that might take some time especially with the global slowdown we're heading towards.


You mean the Mini S35 4K?
Yeah that won't come out until 2021 (and who knows... with the massive global disruptions to manufacturing supply chains, maybe we won't see it until early 2022??)
ARRI might take a couple of years before they can catch up with the heavy demand of Mini S35 4K orders (this isn't an unreasonable guess, ARRI often has massive backlogs of their popular cameras). 

So we could easily be talking about 2023 or even later until all ARRI Mini OG owners (who want to upgrade) have got their new Mini S35 4K camera, and thus can sell their Mini OG onto the secondhand market. 

Thus ZERO chance of this sub $10K Mini happening before 2023.

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@IronFilm yeah, good point on the size being a factor.  I actually see an Alexa Classic on eBay right now for $4,495 USD (and another listing for $6000):

https://www.ebay.com/itm/254558929947

Maybe it’s not the greatest condition or missing some stuff?

Also, I heard that ARRI has a S35 4K camera they decided to hold off releasing until next year since the Mini LF was doing well.  I wonder if that will cause a flood of Mini SD’s to hit the market.

I’ll admit a Classic for $5k is slightly tempting.  Coming from  mirrorless and small cameras like the Z Cam I think the size would be a real smack in the face though ha ha.  Also, I’m sure the practicalities of it like weight and battery life would also hit me pretty quickly once I tried to start shooting with it.

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34 minutes ago, thebrothersthre3 said:

Yeah those bad boys eat through batteries, also heavy AF. 

Tempting though. I am considering the Arri Amira though. Saw one for 10k recently. Its a bit lighter, 4k (sorta), internal ND's and um thats it. 

So I’ve heard!

Amira sounds intriguing.

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1 hour ago, FranciscoB said:

I've seen a few sony f55 going for 10k with EVF and accessories. Always wondered about this camera and it's global shutter.

It's an incredible camera at that price. I'd honestly get that camera before an Alexa classic even at double to price. The Internal 4K 10-bit 4:2:2, global shutter and insane dynamic range, internal ND's.  also a much lighter camera. 
 

 

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There is a F55 right now US$7K from Lebanon:
https://www.ebay.com/itm/Sony-PMW-F55-Camcorder-F55-4K-with-DVF-L350/223953143717

A very low hour F55 from New York for US$9.5:
https://www.ebay.com/itm/Sony-F55-Package-for-Sale/324078328587

(recent eBay sales show the F55 has gone for US$7K, but that was from a low feedback seller)

Personally I'd go for an F5 instead! They're only $5.5K right now on eBay, and recent past sales shows F5 cameras selling for only US$4K!! :-o

Which is bonkers cheap. I'd go for the F5, it has better lowlight than an F55, and better ROI

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23 minutes ago, IronFilm said:

There is a F55 right now US$7K from Lebanon:
https://www.ebay.com/itm/Sony-PMW-F55-Camcorder-F55-4K-with-DVF-L350/223953143717

A very low hour F55 from New York for US$9.5:
https://www.ebay.com/itm/Sony-F55-Package-for-Sale/324078328587

(recent eBay sales show the F55 has gone for US$7K, but that was from a low feedback seller)

Personally I'd go for an F5 instead! They're only $5.5K right now on eBay, and recent past sales shows F5 cameras selling for only US$4K!! 😮

Which is bonkers cheap. I'd go for the F5, it has better lowlight than an F55, and better ROI

Adorama has one for $5800 for crazy low hours. https://www.adorama.com/us 1238705.html?sterm=3G1Tv825AxyORsMxU-SAVSQkUkixg-3MEzbZSU0&utm_source=rflaid912994

Only thing is though the internal 4K option is needed for the F5 to be worth the difference. Without it it's only HD internal.

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