Just a note to say that it would probably be worth doing some tests ahead of the event.
Situations like this involve many variables and most often people don't consider all of them because they don't do any methodical tests. You are assuming that the AF will work differently between different picture profiles, but I would suggest the AF would be operating on the image before the picture profile is applied, so it shouldn't matter... but, once again, you should test this to confirm.
Another thing to consider is if you can push the shutter angle to 270 degrees or even 360 degrees. If it's a worship setting then making the footage seem a bit more surreal might be appropriate, and you can get another half or full-stop of exposure this way.
You should also test NR in post - it's not ideal but it might give a better result overall considering none of your scenarios are operating in the cameras ideal operating range. I've done a lot of shooting with cameras at/beyond their capabilities and when you're pushing things you're trading off the drawbacks of each strategy.