Damphousse

To those who don't believe a company would lose money on purpose, the poster child for that very strategy is Amazon.com.  Their business plan stated that they did not expect to make any profit for the first five years; instead they focused on building market share even if that meant losing money on many transactions. That strategy, considered by some to be crazy at the time, did eventually make them the world's largest online company.

 

There are a million and one ways to lose money.  When someone overdrafts their checkign account that doesn't mean they are implementing the Amazon strategy.
 

 
Amazon is making money and taking the money it makes and EXPANDING its operations.  Panasonic was losing money and started SELLING or SHUTTING DOWN its operations.  And we all know which division is next.  From December 2013...
 

At various times GE was the largest company in the world.  It was run by legendary CEO Jack Welch.  I remeber when Welch gave a simple edict.  Every division had to be number one or two in their market or they were getting shut down.  The problem with mature markets like consumer electronics is being the number three/four or lower competitor just isn't sustainable in the long run.  Something has to happen with Panasonic, Olympus, Samsung, Fuji, etc.  Now the number one or two thing got taken to the extreme and Jack Welch backed off from that position years later due to his company missing opportunities due to rigidity.  But you look at various industries like cell phones and what do you see?  Apple is number one in profit followed by Samsung.  I couldn't tell you who number three is but I could make you a nice list of who has lost money in that industry and gone out of business.  Nokia comes to mind... and I own a Nokia phone.
 
Bottome line if you like what Panasonic is doing you better get your rear end into a store and buy one of their products in the next few months.  What you are seeing at Panasonic is engineers fighting to save their jobs.  This isn't some Amazon 5 year plan you are looking at.  These guys are working like they are going to be out of a job in a year and a half.  Only way to save them is to buy their products.
 

Let's talk solutions instead of causes. Thanks to third-party companies, you can add some of the stuff Canon deliberately left off their more reasonably-priced cameras. Here's a box made by Tascam, designed to attach to the bottom of a DSLR and it provides a headphone jack for monitoring, XLR connectors, level meters and controls, etc. Very reasonably priced at $200, the only drawback I can see being that it adds a pound of weight to your camera and makes it more bulky to carry around. Probably more useful for tripod than hand-held use. Any comments on this?

On board audio is not some issue that is unique to Canon. I just bought the Tascam DR-60D for $150 when it was on sale at B&H for my BMPCC. Not much to say. Can't think of a better solution for $150. As you said it is bulky. It also doesn't come with a microphone. Some other solutions at least have built in mics so the whole solution can go on your hotshoe.... but with those solutions you won't get the quality nor the features.

Another thing to keep in mind is that thing eats batteries. I personally have not put this to the test. I use a USB power solution. You can get one of those lithium battery cellphone/tablet travel chargers and hook it up to the Tascam DR-60D. Now I run a mic with phantom power off the Tascam and never worry about power for either.

By the way there is a new model coming out called the Tascam DR-60D mkII.
 


The original DR-60D had one big problem. The gain is not smooth analog. It goes in steps. So if you ride the gain really hard you will hear audible clicks. I am not a sound man so I just set and forget. The DR-60D can be setup to record a quieter back up track in case your talent suddenly laughs or raises their voice. So being a one man band the gain riding has been a non issue for me.

Nikon was the top dog in 35mm cameras until they screwd bigtime in the 80s by not taking serious Autofocus and canon took over their market.

 

The fact of the matter is you are talking about the number one and two camera makers in the world who are also PROFITABLE.  Like IBM I don't see the Canon or Nikon monikor disappearing from the face of the planet any time soon.  That is why I said it was a good analogy... A good analogy... Not a perfect analogy.

Canon: The IBM of camera makers.

I agree.  There aren't that many world class companies that have been solidly run for decades like IBM and Canon.  It's amazing how many flash in the pan companies have gone out of business and IBM stock is making an all time high.  And they aren't making that all time high with BS pie in the sky projections.  They are doing it with real earnings.  Their dividend yield is 20% higher than the S&P 500 average.  Their PE is 20% BELOW the S&P 500 PE.  You look at Canon's bond rating and compare it to Panasonics and it gives you a clearer picture of who the world thinks is more likely to be happily selling cameras and supporting the equipment they are selling today, ten years from now.  Panasonic had to shutter divisions to avoid having their debt rated junk.

 

Panasonic lost money for three years straight.  They only became profitable by axing their plasma TV division.  And that says nothing about their plasma TVs.  A number of their plasmas were better than 90% of the garbage people have in their homes.  Having a handful of excellent products doesn't mean you are giong to be around in 10 years.

New kid on the block. h265 is very cool, but im sure 7DII will be far more impressive! ;-) hahaha ... So Pana, Sony and now Samsung will make Canon´s life hell.

 

 

Lol! No.  The camera market is really maturing.  There is no room for five or more players.  Panasonic gave their camera division an ultimatum to right their ship by 2016 or they were going to axe the entire department.  Things like the massive BMPCC sale this summer and now possibly this effort from Samsung are not going to help their cause.  A massive shake out is going to happen in the coming years.  But one thing that will endure is 4k.  The genie is out of the bottle.

 

Any info on how the sensor reads out?  How about stabilization?
 
Looks like an interesting camera, but having 2 systems already  (E Mount & MFT) unlikely that I will be making a switch to Samsung anytime soon.
 
It will be interesting to see how the quality is on H265, but it may be degraded by the type of sensor readout.

 
A video has been posted...
 

 
It's only youtube but the camera looks like it has potential.

 

I'm seeing incredible amounts of aliasing. Looks really bad.

 
Are you watching it on a 4K screen?  All sharp highly detailed 4k videos on youtube streamed to 1080p monitors look like they have aliasing.  I mean the camera could suffer from aliasing but I would need a better test than that to make that determination.

What a joke, seriously you must be kidding me. Are you suggesting that in the 5 years I have lived and breathed DSLR video, writing hundreds of articles on EOSHD about the gear, and unlike you actually fucking shooting stuff, that this does not count as professional research for a bunch of questions at Photokina in 2014? You are out of your mind and damned bloody rude if you don't mind me saying so as well. Really angered me with this. I think you should take your animosity towards Andrew Reid and put it back on a forum like DVX where it belongs.

 

 

I just want to make a couple of things very clear.  First of all I do NOT go around the internet creating accounts at other video forums and bad mouth you.  I've made hundreds of posts on your forum... that's more than enough.  If I have something to say I post it here so you can read it.  My purpose is do have a dialogue not bash.  If I thought everything you had to say was useless I would just not come to the forum.

 

The second thing I want to state is my comments regarding "research" were about a very narrow part of the videography world... marketing and economics.  I have never questioned you when you have said "this camera has good video quality" or "this camera has a weak codec."  I come to your site, read your reviews, and decide based upon that and viewing a few clips.  If you say a camera has a weak codec that pretty much ends my research on that camera.  I've said it before and I'll say it again.  Your video camera image quality rank is my bible for my hobby.  It saves me a lot of time and effort when trying to decide what to spend my money on.

 

And finally the only reason... or perhaps 90% of the reason I posted was because I didn't want you to torch your relationship with Canon and Nikon.  I may not have understood how exactly you were going to ask your questions but what you say in your article had me worried.  I don't wish anything bad upon you or this forum.  Frankly I thought it was a bit inappropriate for people to egg you on.  Maybe some of us could have been more constructive and done as you asked an provided question we would ask.  Honestly first and foremost what I want you to do is your job... but I also want you to maintain your relationship with Canon and Nikon.  I am not saying compromise your journalistic integrity.  I just thought a little more finesse was called for.

 

At any rate I like what you did with your revised post in this thread.  Do not misunderstand me.  I really appreciate there are people like you out there advocating for us videographers.  It is just from time to time the manner in which it is done that I thought needed a little tweaking... or maybe I just misunderstood and you were just thinking out loud on your website but in person you were going to handle things differently.

Very unprofessionally-put questions that will lead to absolutely nothing, not a single usefull answer compared to what a professional journalist could get by asking similar question just in a different way.

 

Some of the questions wouldn't even have been asked in any form by a professional journalist because professional journalists do research before having a hardball Q&A session with corporate representatives.

 

Here are some FACTS a professional journalist would keep in mind when speaking to Canon and Nikon.  The first is historically DSLR sales have been volatile.  You need a lot of data points before you can claim there is a trend... not just a few months worth of data during economically turbulent times.

 

Another FACT that should be kept in mind is the number one selling DSLR on the United States' number one online reseller last week was the Nikon D750.  It was bumped from number one to number two when I checked today.  The new number one selling DSLR is the Canon T3i... hardly a 4K aliasing/moire free video machine.

 

FACT number four, I'm losing track now, there are no mirrorless cameras of any sort in the top 10 DSLR cameras sold on Amazon.

 

FACT number five there are no Sony cameras of any type in the top 50.  Let me make this absolutely clear.  The 7D outsells EVERY Sony DSLR/mirrorless camera.

 

Against this backdrop I would think it is ill advised to tell Canon and Nikon either explicitly or implicitly that they are somehow a sales failure.  And I would think, given the data, that suggesting, again explicitly or implicitly, that 4k and ditching the mirror is going to somehow work wonders is a bit foolhardy.

 

Anyone can choose to ignore these data points but let me assure you Canon and Nikon have those data points and many more.  It's interesting.  You remove Japan from those mirrorless numbers and you really wonder where they settle out.  Japan is a unique market.  It is not necessarily a trend setter or ahead of the curve as people like to often imply.  Let me put it to you this way in Japan Fuji still sells plenty of FILM I can no longer get in the US.  Does that mean the world is moving from digital to film or does that just mean the Japanese have peculiar tastes... particularly in regards to photography?  Don't get me wrong in many ways I wish the US photography market was like Japan, but wishing doesn't make it so.

Interesting thread.

 

Now be honest fellas.  Which of you correctly forecasted the Nikon D750's Amazon sales rank...

 

It looks like some Nokia Lumia owners are going to be in for a 4K treat. It doesn't seem like it is a continuous recording mode but if you can do 10 second clips that's all I need.
 

Berlin, Germany – This morning Microsoft has announced Lumia Denim as the next firmware for Lumia handsets. This update will bring Windows Phone 8.1 Update 1 to retail phones in addition to firmware features unique to Lumia. Look forward to improvements for Lumia Camera and more.

Lumia Denim cements Microsoft's leadership in mobile imaging. Look forward to the following features coming in Lumia Denim for handsets like the Lumia 930, Lumia Icon and Lumia 1520:

Speed: Never miss a moment with Lumia Camera and its fast camera startup and capture speeds. Take numerous photos with just milliseconds between shots.
High definition: Using Moment Capture, a long press of the camera button within the app automatically starts 4K-quality video recording at 24 frames per second. Each frame is of high image quality at 8.3 megapixels, allowing every single video frame to be selected and saved as a still image.
Intuitiveness: Get the best shot every time with Rich Capture, which simplifies picture-taking with auto HDR and Dynamic Flash. With Rich Capture, people can avoid the hassle adjusting camera settings; they can shoot first and edit and select the perfect shot later.
Quality: Capture high-quality smartphone images in low light with the latest-generation imaging algorithms.
Look forward to Lumia Denim rolling out to the Lumia 930, Lumia Icon and Lumia 1520 in Q4 2014. It'll then come to the Lumia 830 in that same time frame as an over-the-air update. Additional handsets will get Lumia Denim after partner testing and approvals.

 

http://www.wpcentral.com/lumia-denim-firmware-announced-microsoft

 

Nice to see a phone company expanding video features through a free firmware update. It's amazing that a phone that launched for less than $100 on contract last year will get 4k for free. I wish Apple would take a page from Microsoft's book instead of making people pay through the nose for basic features tons of other phones have. I mean am I to understand you have to pay $300 ON CONTRACT just to get the only iphone that has an HD screen? Terrible.  And still no microSD expansion slot?

Those rumor sites are worse than useless.  Didn't they say there was going to be a Panasonic Lumix LX8 4K m4/3 announcement in mid July?  I was actually watching those sites and waiting to see what Panasonic was going to do next.  Glad Blackmagic ended my wait.  We are in September and still nothing from Panasonic.  My answer is I will believe it when I see it.

 

lol smh lol. no. its not about "Marketing 101" lol go look at the stock prices for Nikon and Canon. both are around 5 year lows. this has nothing to do with product life cycle. it is plain and simple people are buying less dslrs over a pretty long period of time. And you are right Nikon and Canon arent going anywhere anytime soon but this is still a trend. so at what point in time does a long term trend become the norrn for you? 

 

We have a short wait till the 7D mkII and Nikons D750. Let see how dslr sales skyrocket with these. I dont think they are going to sell very many of either. When sales do not skyrocket, maybe that would be a good time for you to start asking why then see andrews list. 

 

Interesting narrative you came up with though.

 
 
The graph you just quoted illustrates exactly what you are talking about.  I don't understand where the disagreement is.  Canon and Nikon have made quality products that meet the needs of their target market.  And the products last... pretty much indefinitely.  My Dad still has and uses his Canon from the 70s.  Once you reach that point NEW camera sales decline as my graph illustates the stock price declines.  Can you show me anywhere in this thread where I have posted something that contradicts that?
 
You have to decide whether you are a photographer/videographer or a stock market investor because the needs of these two groups are often in conflict.  That is why companies often go private.  Because they want to concentrate on their core market and their core product and not have to engage in asinine debates about cherrypicked numbers every quarter.  If you've ever been on a quarterly earnings call you know exactly what I mean.  The OP's graph says NOTHING about actual DSLR nor mirrorless USAGE by the end user.  People have said it in this thread and in other threads that there is a very robust market in USED DSLRs.  I haven't bought a new DSLR in YEARS does that mean I don't use one?  Does that mean I use a mirrorless camera?
 
I mean really the interpretation of the OP's graph throughout this thread has been the millisecond a camera is sold it no longer exists.  That's nuts!
 
And who cares if Canon and Nikon's stock prices go down?  Just because a company's stock price goes down doesn't mean anything changes in regard to their bank account.  I mean when when blackmagic slashed the price of the BMPCC did that mean your BMPCC stopped working?  Canon's stock price could be a quarter of it's current value and they could make cameras and lenses just fine.  It sucks for stock holders but it has no effect on camera holders.

Really it's weird how someone said Canon and Nikon need to innovate "like Apple."  Well according your analysis Apple is a failure...
 

iPad sales are falling because those who own the devices are so happy with them they feel no need to upgrade, Apple has claimed.
According to research shared during its results announcement, 98% of iPad owners and 100% of iPad mini owners surveyed by Apple said they were "satisfied" with the device - a figure Tim Cook called "astonishing" according to a transcript from Seeking Alpha.
However, while Cook said that customers "enjoying their iPads and using them heavily" is what's most important to the company, this has had a negative impact on its tablet sales.

 
http://www.pcpro.co.uk/news/389944/ipad-sales-stall-as-owners-too-happy-to-upgrade

We are not satisfied with Canon and Nikon but we aren't the core market for their sub $1,100 cameras. My photographer friends never complain about their DSLRs. At most they will complain they would like something with similar image quality in a pocketable format. And obvioulsy a Pansonic G6 and many other mirrorless cameras aren't pockatable especially once you slap a decent lens on them. They are smaller... but not smaller in a way that cross important thresholds for the average consumer.

The market Canon created with their 5D mk II, is not a small one. The sales of both the GH4 and A7s prove that, it's larger than you might expect. People are getting into video, I might even say it's getting as big as the photography market, and it's only getting bigger and bigger.

Canon knows this, Nikon knows this, Panasonic and Sony know this (they even made cameras specifically for it), and I promise you all the next releases from these companies will have a big emphasis on video.

 

You've made some nice nebulous statements... unfortunately you haven't posted any facts to back up what you are saying.  You look at the volume of posts on photography forums and they dwarf the volume of posts on video forums.  Heck I frequent a FILM photgraphy forum and it has more posts than this forum.

 

The market for cell phone video is huge.  The market for DSLR video?  Markedly smaller.  Again in my circle of friends I'm the only one that does it.  And once I get my BMPCC up and running I will leave the hybrid camera video world behind for a couple of years... at least. 

 

I think you are missing the point. I don't think the argument is about convincing the average joe that they need to plonk down thousands of dollars instead of using their phone. It is about convincing the person who is already in the market for plonking down thousands of dollars why they should spend those thousands on a particular camera.


 

 

I think you missed the point of the graph in the OP.  It shows a decline in number of units shipped of ALL DSLRs.  Now if you want to analyze the graph what do you think is of more relevance, the smaller portion of units shipped (ie 5D MK III, et al) or the larger portion of units shipped (ie sub $1,100 cameras).

 

I have taken several college level marketing classes and I’m astonished at how tripped up people are getting over this basic market analysis.  It’s a simple graph.  And all you have to do is couple it with one simple FACT, sub $1,100 cameras are the majority of units Canon ships.  So if you want to analyze a major move in the graph why on earth wouldn’t you start there?  The a7s and the GH4 are not going to be considered substitutes for 70Ds and Canon Rebels by most people.  So their introduction is not going to cause the sales of Rebels to crater.

 

And another point is if you look at that graph we know in all likelihood DSLR sales will rocket to levels far above mirrorless sales sometime in the next 12 months.  You can cherrypick points on the graph going back years and tell whatever story you want.  But anyone that doesn’t think DSLR sales aren’t going to go up dramatically from this point is kidding themselves.  Every year we have people saying DSLRs are dead… then sales rocket up and they are silent.  Then sales fall again and they are back saying this is the end.  All good things come to an end eventually… but whether it’s on Wall Street or video forums I haven’t met a person yet that can call a bottom in a market.

I agree with Andrew and aside of the graphs.... the evidence appears to be there and his arguments make a lot of sense.

How many shooters have left Canon recently and advising others that they no longer need to look at Canon/ Nikon anymore for hybrid Cameras in DSLR format...Celeb Pike, Dave Dugdale and many others, tons of them on youtube that own or no longer own a Canon...scan through some reviews and you will see what I mean, the bigger ones are getting between 10,000 and 35,000 hits on theiir reviews of the Gh4 and A7s, this has to have an effect.

 

Without debating whether Andrew is right or not I can tell you will 100% certitude the average consumer rarely if ever uses their DSLR to make videos and that is not a big driver when they are buying a camera.  I can also tell you that the majority of DSLRs the largest camera maker in the world sells cost less than $1,100.  So the idea mirrorless camers selling for $1,700 and $2,500 are in any significant way responsible for the DSLR sales drop is ludicrous.  I don't know how many times it needs to be said.

 

I was out shooting with a friend.  They had their Canon Rebel set up on a tripod and took a picture.  Without missing a beat they pulled their iphone out of their pocket and shot a short handheld video.  I repeat, they had a Canon DSLR bolted to a tripod with an L lens attached... and they made a handheld video with a cell phone.  That person is not buying an a7s.  I'm sorry.

 

 

Last time I looked at camera sales and Camcorders at BH Photo the GH4 and A7s were in number one and two position, I had to wait over two months (after paying) to get a GH4 in Australia, the importer told me (and they have about 4 outlets online that stock Canons, Nikons etc...), that it is very difficulty to get a GH4, they are so much in demand, same for the A7s...I dont think he is talking about niche markets here, nor do I think BH having those cameras at the top of the list of sellers is niche either, or Amazon selling out over and over.

 

As I said the evidence is crystal clear, Panasonic cant keep up with demand, they doubled production a while back...and Sony would be delighted with the response and sales of the A7s as well.

 

 

Yes B&H may sell a lot of GH4s but you have to understand in a country of 310+ million people it is probably one of only a handful of places you can get a Panasonic GH4.  A month ago the BMPCC was probably the number one or two selling camera at B&H.  Does that mean it is responsible for the drop in DSLR sales... or does that mean B&H is one of only a handful of authorized dealers that sell the camera... in a country of 310+ million people.

And really what do you think the production run is for the GH4?  I can tell you it is nowhere near the size of the production run of a Canon Rebel at launch.  So the fact it sold out doesn't prove anything.  In the United States we have a company called Microsoft and when they made their first modern tablet they had some people in the marketing department that succumbed to irrational exuberance.  They made way too many of the tablets and they are still selling them as new YEARS later... and after multiple substantial price cuts.  So what did they do for the next model?  They made a much smaller production run and voila!  All of a sudden the Surface 2 was selling out everywhere.

 

As I said before this is more about understanding marketing than anything else.  Things you guys have to understand are... video isn't that important to the average consumer; the average consumer isn't going to pay over $1,100 for a camera body; just because NEW DSLR sales are down doesn't mean USED sales are down or that people who already own DSLRs aren't using them any more.  Sales can't go up forever.  Once the product gets to a certain level of quality and everyone has one it is perfectly natural for new sales to go do.  Eventually you will only be selling to hardcore gear heads, new immigrants, and new people that are born.  While that isn't great for stock prices I fail to see why it has any relevance to the average consumer.

 

Marketing 101...

 

 

I have to agree with Andrew.    I know a bunch of pro photogs who have switched to mirrorless, mostly Sony.  One guy is hard core Nikon with a D800, switched to the A7R, another Canon 1DX switched to the A7S, another Sony A77 switched to the A6000.  Why?  Smaller, lighter, great image quality.  I too am thinking of dumping my 5DmkIII in favor of using my GH4 - for stills!  It's just easier to carry, smaller lenses but just as sharp, and great fast AF with great stills quality.  I think it's just the natural evolution of things.  The old adage of huge bulky cameras is going away.  It's about functionality and convenience. 

 

If PRO PHOTOGRAPHERS were dumping Canon and Nikon DSLRs en masse in favor of mirrorless cameras Canon and Nikon would address it.  My suspicion is that is simply not the case.

So in that case I ask again... what is the problem with speculation and opinion? It gets a hard time. A blog is always going to be one person's take based on the facts available - unless you have 20 guest writers and this is not that kind of 'churn em out' blog.

 

Nothing is wrong with speculation and opinion.  I follow your opinion and accept it on a lot of stuff.  To be honest with you most of the time when I disagree with you it is over trival stuff like this topic.  And to me this is a debate about economics, marketing, and product life cycles.  It's not really about video.  I was pretty pissed off and Canon for a long time but I've since come to see a method to their madness.  They are perfectly happy letting me buy a bmpcc for $500.  I will still adapt my Canon lens to use with it.  I will still keep my Canon DSLR.  And they still get to sell Cinema cameras for a premium.

 

 

By the way here is a Reuter's article analyzing the same data set...

 

 

Japanese camera makers were hoping that mirrorless cameras, which work with a sensors, could pick up the slack as compact camera sales continue to slide as consumers are increasingly shifting to high-resolution smartphone cameras.

But so far, they have only seen strong mirrorless sales at home, where shipments grew 16.8 percent in the six months to June, while dropping 18.5 percent globally, according to data from the Camera and Imaging Products Association (CIPA) of Japan. Compact camera shipments plummeted 48 percent.

Rival Olympus Corp said on Thursday that its sales of its signature mirrorless model, the PEN, had fallen 12 percent in the first quarter, below its expectations.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/08/us-nikon-earnings-idUSBRE9770EH20130808

 

Two different sources.  Two entirely different takes.  Same dataset.  I think that is why you got a debate.

What is the problem people have with speculation exactly?
 
You read EOSHD as much for my opinion I hope, as you do for raw specs, facts and figures.

I refer to your video quality chart all the time. I value your opinion when you talk about video quality between cameras. You are going to see and use more cameras in a year than I will in a lifetime. But that doesn't make you an financial analyst or an economist.

Getting your hands on all these cameras and spending some meaningful time with them is something I simply cannot do. I was excited about the Sony RX10 but after reading your words I did not buy it. I ended up pulling the trigger on the bmpcc early on in the sale because I did my research on this site amongst others. I have a major disagreement with you about this mirrorless thing but there is plenty of other stuff I pretty much treat as the gospel when you say it. You're my only source for a lot of that stuff so I have no basis to argue.

I don't see any sign of people getting off the consumerist upgrade bandwagon.

DSLRs are a mature market. As far as stills are concerned no one (DSLR, mirroless, cell phone, etc) is producing anything new in my price range that is compelling enough for me to upgrade. I see it amongst the people I know. Upgrading your camera just isn't a topic these days.
 

Despite the clear tanking of low end sales (Nikon 1, GF5, EOSHD M etc.) Mirrorless sales haven't dropped in the same way. They're remained steady. This means that if the low end mirrorless crap has tanked in the way I think it has, there's been considerable growth in sales for the more innovative higher end stuff.

Well you are assuming. Your previous arguments in this thread were based on numbers you quoted and a graph you posted. You are wandering into the realm of speculation now. I mean the EOS M NEVER had good sales. I'm not sure it is "tanking." It has had a constant level of sales... weak. In fact I dare say with some of the fire sales that have gone on with it its sales at various times may actualy have been UP. I mean they were selling it on ebay with the 20mm f/2 lens for $250!

The fact remains most of Canon and Nikon's sales happen below $1,100. So the GH4 and a7s are not going to move the mass market needle. Absolutely no one I know would pay $1,700 for a mirrorless camera... let alone $2,500.

 

Canon and Nikon will wake up eventually...

Wake up to what?! As someone else pointed out they can put all the 4K 10bit 4:2:2 Prores, with zebras, peaking, NDs, etc they want into $1,700+ camera and the average consumer will not buy it. They will jack up their Cinema camera sales but they will not get the average consumer to buy. Photography forums are full of people saying they don't want any more video in DSLRs. The photography forums are full of people turning up their noses at the few micro four thirds evangelists that post.

I only bought a bmpcc because it was $500. And I'm someone who is a little bit knowledgable and really interested. You really think the average consumer is going to pay three times that price for a GH4?

Unfortunately for them, technology and economics has caught up with them and now everyone has a smartphone that does probably 90% of everything the average buyer will ever do with a camera, and they likely aren't willing to pay $600 to get that extra 10%. Do you disagree with last statement (of opinion)?

And again let's not forget most people in America who want a DSLR already own a pretty good one. As the years have gone by and Canon and Nikon have made better and better DSLRs people have upgraded less and less.
 

What innovations do you have in mind that *would* cause the average camera buyer to plunk down $1000 (or $700) on a new camera? Do you really think that if Canon and Nikon both released killer mirrorless full-frame 4:2:2 4K 240fps@1080p 14-stop DR with ND for $999 that sales would suddenly go back up to the good old days of 2012? Do you know how many people actually care about those specs? Pretty much everyone who routinely goes to this awesome website of yours, and almost no one else.

Yeah I would love to see someone explain to the average consumer who already has a cell phone that they should blow $2,500 on a 12.2 megapixel Sony mirrorless camera. No average consumer in their right mind is going to pay $2,500 for a 12.2 megapixel camera. And they are going to be reluctant to spend that kind of dough on any camera that doesn't have Canon or Nikon firmly attached. I mean what kind of a conversation at the water cooler or country club is that going to be?

Coworker: "Hey man I heard you got some super expensive bad @$$ camera!"
Average Consumer: "Yeah it was $2,500."
Coworker: "How many megapixels?"
Average Consumer: "12.2"
Coworker: [Silence]
Coworker: "Is it a Canon?"
Average Consumer: "It's a Sony."
Coworker: [Silence]

The stuff we discuss and get excited about on this forum is niche stuff. It is not mass market. I just don't see the average consumer having the courage to get a $1,700+ camera of any sort let alone a mirroless camera from someone who isn't Canon or Nikon. I'm sure if you look at Canon sales numbers the majority of cameras they sold sell for less than $1,100. So no I don't think the Panasonic GH4 nor the Sony a7s are going to do diddly as far as the mass market. They may sell a lot for their niches but they are not going to bring about a DSLR apocolypse.

I'm sorry, but it's only natural that sales drop over time.
 

Three major reasons why :

- normal people don't buy a new camera every single year, most people who buy a DSLR will use it for 3-5 years minimum before buying a new model.  Not all of us use them professionally or need to have the newest equipment the moment it comes out.

- the moment people replace their camera, their DSLR is being sold second hand.  The second hand camera market follows the new product market with a delay of 3-5 years.  Which means that the new DSLR's from 5 years ago are now changing hands.   To new owners who are NOT buying a new DSLR.  But will probably use their second hand camera for minimum 2 years.

 

This is very true and can't be said enough.  Canon and Nikon have done such a good job with the stills side of the equation most people don't have any need to upgrade.  Just because I am not upgrading every year doesn't mean I don't use my DSLR.  When these people are saying the "market for DSLRs has tanked" they mean people have gotten off the endless consumerisum treadmill of constantly upgrading gear.  That's bad for stock prices and bonuses for 1%ers but I fail to see how that is bad for me as a consumer. 

 

 

 

 

From this graph we can see DSLRs have been in this territory before.  Two out of three times they have gone on to spike well above mirrorless sales.  I don't think anyone has the clairvoyance to definitively say "this time it's different."  I didn't predict video in the 5d MK II.  I didn't predict Blackmagic cameras.  So I am no wise sage that can pick significant inflection points.  But looking around I don't see anyone else accurately making those predictions either.

 

How can anyone say that the mirrorless market is somehow interchangable with the DSLR market.  When DSLR sales nose dive there is not an equal jump in mirroless sales.

 

Canon and Nikon for the most part know what they are going.  Their core DSLR customers are stills photographers.  If you go to photography forums mirrorless cameras are not taking over the forums.  This DSLR video thing was a short term thing that has run it's course.  I have a T3i and now a BMPCC.  I'm done with the hybrid camera thing for now.

 

I never said anything about buying a 7D for video. I merely compared how top of the line product cycles are longer.

I addressed BOTH the stills and video sides of the equation. And the point you made was Canon's slothfulness was to protect the value of the cameras for early pro adopters. I merely pointed out that's not true because a few months after the 7D hit at premium prices Canon was out peddling the same sensor to the masses in their bargain basement Rebel line. Go back and read the photography forums. I don't think you will find too many pro photographers that think Canon's moves were designed to protect their investment.

Canon is definitely protecting THEIR profits in the Cinema line of cameras, which is neither good or bad. It's just a straight forward business decision. But to say they are protecting YOUR investment in the 7D by taking forever to update it is demonstrably false as the press pointed out numerous times when the T2i hit the market...
 

For example, if you primarily shoot in the studio, there would be no benefit to spending the extra $900 on the 7D, especially for product photography. Since they use the same sensor, the image quality will be identical.

 
http://www.lightandmatter.org/2010/equipment-reviews/canon-7d-vs-canon-rebel-t2i-half-the-price-half-the-camera/

Geez, some people...

 

Lol.  You should be a reporter.  I've never seen someone make a quote and snip out 70% of a sentence in various places to skew the meaning.

 

I didn't order my first BMPCC until after it was out of stock everywhere, so everyone had a chance to get it ahead of me when it was in stock.  If you really wanted one, you got one.  Secondly my last order for a BMPCC was literally a day before the price went back up to $1,000.  Again I purposfully waited WEEKS so everyone that was serious about getting one had a chance.

 

Selling a couple of BMPCC to finance a $559 speedbooster is hardly a crime.

Also, all these firmware differences are actually marketed as hardware differences, so it is a little bit misleading in my view. When you buy a piece of software you know you are buying software and you know that a lite version costs money to unlock the full potential of.

Very true. When you are paying over $15,000 more you want to know if it is hardware or just a handful of characters on an SD card.
 

Those who early-adopted the Alexa in 2010 still have a camera widely considered to be the best available. It has been upgraded and looked after. Arri has released new models that complement it without making it obsolete.
Same with top of the line DSLRs: Canon has not yet updated the 1Dx nor the 7D (flagship of their respective lines). Sure they have released a ton of lower end FF and APS-C models based on the same technology, but their high-end line has a 4-5 year product cycle.

BMPC and GH4 are aimed at a different crowd. Buy it and you won't become a premium client.

I have never heard anyone describe Canon's slothfulness as a virtue. Comparing Canon to Alexa is a joke. Alexa is already the pinnacle of image quality. Where as Canon is getting it's butt handed to it by companies that didn't even sell cameras a few years ago. Canon is clearly dragging it's feet and protecting it's higher models. I don't know of anyone that is filming seriously that uses the 7D over a bmpcc. I don't know of anyone who is going out and buying a new 7D body for video. And as far as stills you seem to forget mere months after Canon juiced a bunch of people for their cash they introduced a bargain basement Rebel with the exact same image quality.

The Alexa analogy is interesting but clearly it is not the only model being followed in this industry.

In a recent interview Bob Caniglia, Senior Regional Manager, Eastern North America for Blackmagic Design, said the following...
 

The Pocket Cinema Camera promotion grew from a need to move some parts and some cameras out quickly. We were overwhelmed by the response — which was nice. But we were pretty clear that it was not one of these long drawn out plans and then we’ll announce a new camera — it was really not about that. The fact is, we do have a couple of new cameras coming out – the URSA and the Studio — and they need to be built and shipped now. We needed the room. Nothing too sinister. That’s really it.

planet5D

So the Pocket sale was simply a housekeeping measure.  There will be no answer to sub $1,000 4k.  In a way I'm totally okay with that.  I bought an extra BMPCC to sell; so between the price rise, shortage, and no new bmpcc on the horizon I should be able to sell it for a nice profit and ease my pain into the Blackmagic world.

 

1. Are any of the lenses (posted below) interesting?

 

 

No.

 

 

2. If not, they're pretty cheap so would it be wort it to buy them and maybe experiment with cracking glass for light leaks, etc?

 

 

You need to look up what a "light leak" is.  Light doesn't "leak" through glass whether it is cracked or not... it flows freely through glass.  If you have a light leak it ain't coming from your glass.  It is leaking through something that used to be opaque.  I mean what you are saying is like saying, a leaky waterfall.  If you are trying to turn your bmpcc into one of those horrendous Lomo plastic cameras I suggest punching some holes in the camera body.  That will get you the look you are going for... it may void your warranty though.

 

3. What kind of adapter etc would I need?

 

 

Can't tell.  But you will need numerous adapters.  You can't just go from store to store and snatch up a grab bag of lenses.  They all have different mounts in the back.  Even if they are Leicas there are at least two common Leica mounts.  Same goes for Canon.

 

 

4. Let me know if you have some other information on how to go about for shooting cheap inexpensive vintage on the BMPCC.

 

 

This business of cheap inexpensive vintages lenses is a myth.  By the time you find something that is quality, that works, and that offers something a modern lens doesn't and then buy the necessary adapter you aren't really saving any money in most cases.

 

I am no expert in this area.  I wanted to get started with my bmpcc with some cheap lens options.  What I found was if I wanted something quality in a useful focal length I was going to have to cough up some dough unless I did a lot of research and got very lucky.  As someone else pointed out you really need to find lenses that are less than 25mm.

 

You can get a Nikon 50mm 1.8 in mint condition used for less than $100.  Heck at times you can get in new for that much.  Slap on a Nikon adapter and you have a 1.8 150mm lens.  That takes care of a lot of telephoto needs.  Then start your hunt for some sub25mm glass.  Do some research and look for some C-mount glass.

 

Again though I often find stuff that is affordable just isn't quality.  It seems like the good deals have really been picked over and people have started to realize what their old lenses are worth.

 

It takes balls to test a hack on a 16K$ camera too!!!

 

I wouldn't really call it a dangerous hack any more than I would call turning up the volume on my TV a dangerous hack.  The guy changed one setting in an unencrypted text file on removable media.  If that was enough to automatically brick your camera makes you wonder what would happen if that media would ever get corrupted and change more than one value!

 

 

Being a software engineer myself, I can without a doubt guarantee that the engineer that did this, his boss and the janitor that cleaned their cubicle ALL lost their job today. Period.

 

He would be lucky if his family, dog, and mailman weren't on the back of a milkbox as well.  Someone at corporate is going to be on the war path.

 

 

 

Well I'm pretty sure playback is only software disabled as well, as it can playback 4k from the external rec. If interested Sony could very well make the f5 a full 4k internal camera via firmware.
The comparison with GPU or CPU chips is a bit wrong at least in the beginning of the lifespan of the chips. Most of the time when producing a new chip on a new manufacturing process not every chip is 100% usable but before thrashing them they get sold as a cheaper version with for example 2 non working cores disabled. As manufacturing matures the yield gets better and then you get nearly 100% working chips. And then they keep selling the cheap version. Therefore the "hack" of re-enabling disabled cores via software, soldering or something else doesn't always work. But on the F5 its pure marketing decisions. I hope they just sell a 4k upgrade option, they are lucky at the moment that enabling of 4k playback of 4k isn't yet working so they have a chance of selling it. Otherwise v5 must be really good to convince people to forget about 4k recording and upgrade their firmware to v5.

 

 

I don't know about that.  Pretty much throughout a chip's manufacturing lifespan you are not going to get 100% perfect and uniform wafers.  I never heard about the cores being disabled thing.  That may be true.  I know for sure that they test chips coming off the wafer to see which ones can handle various clock speeds.  Then they market those chips accordingly.  They literally design one chip and pardon the pun let the chips fall where they may.  That is a lot different than intentionally limiting perfectly good chips.

 

 

 

In the case of the F55, Sony's failure does some serious financial damage to the people who trusted their business to them and opted for the bigger and better investment.

 

 

 

This is the real crime.  They just slashed the value of the camera a bunch of their premium customers purchased.  Unlike the bmpcc fire sale every single F5 in existence can take advantage of this settings change nondestructively.

 

I like this blog and Philip Bloom's blog but I simply can't afford to commit capital to cameras like these guys.  I can't afford to take multithousand dollar hits on my equipment.  I balked at getting the bmpcc when it was $1,000.  I balked at paying $850 for it used.  But I didn't hesitate when the price dropped to $500.  At $500 they can introduce a 4k model tomorrow and I guarantee I will still be able to sell my pocket for more than I paid for it.  Buying a $29,000 camera in these fast moving times is just asking to get whacked with $10,000 worth of depreciation in short order.  Think about it.  Magic lantern, Blackmagic, GH4, and now this.  If you invest $29,000 in a camera body you need to be working and making a lot of $$$ from it day in and day out, because three or four years out the depreciation is going to be fierce.  Think about where we were three years ago.  Magic Lantern only appeared about five years ago.  And continous raw only appeared on the 5D MK III, what, last year?  Resolve lite appeared when?  I was checking out field monitors and it appears the features have been increasing exponentially and the price coming down.  I really wonder what a field monitor with histogram cost 4 years ago.

Just take a look here:

 

>

 

I think the tilt-shift shots are superb!

 

Here are the making of videos: