Step up folks, step right up and place your bets on which camera maker will live long enough to be in business five years from now...
Here are the camera makers I think are the most endangered, in order of risk:
Canon
Olympus
Panasonic
Pentax
Least endangered:
Fuji
Nikon
Most likely to be in business five years from now:
Google
Samsung
Apple
Why do I think Canon, Olympus, Panasonic and Pentax are most endangered?
For starters, Canon is most at risk because it has rested on its laurels for far too long and relied on its deep and vast lens ecosystem to save the day. They've had a major loss in profits recently, and shareholders are starting to look at whether investing in Canon still makes sense. Their camera lines are predicated on excessive segmentation and incrementalism and don't offer what pros and consumers are after. They refuse to implement 4K properly, thinking they can force buyers to pay pro-grade prices for minimal 4K capabilities, while other makers are offering decent 4K capability for far less money.
Olympus is also at risk because it keeps clinging to the Micro Four-Thirds system, which accounts for only a minority of the camera and lens market. Few pros use the M43 system. It's fine for consumers who don't mind low resolution, compromised dynamic range, mediocre AF, relatively poor low-light capabilities, noisy images above 1600 ISO, and like to pay top dollar for cameras and lenses. The cost of the lenses for Panasonic and Olympus, by the way, are due to both companies opting to have high-end lens makers build their lenses rather than doing the job in-house.
For instance, their flagship camera, the OM-D E-M1x, is configured and marketed as a 'pro' camera, but the body alone is $3899. Add on say, an Olympus 12-200mm PRO for another $1200 or so and you're looking at a total system cost of $5K for a system that doesn't deliver pro-quality images. That's a poor value proposition, in my eyes.
Panasonic: See my comments for Olympus above. They've been clinging to M43 for too long as well. Sure, they've brought out cameras with new 20MP sensors, but the increased resolution won't make up for the basic deficiencies of M43 sensors or the antiquated CDAF focus systems they use. The bright spot on the horizon for Panasonic is the introduction of their new full-frame cameras and lenses. Here's hoping further development in the full frame area will result in Panasonic releasing either an affordable full-frame camera, or a line of APS-C cameras that consumers can afford and will offer a good value proposition.
Pentax: They make some good cameras, but the video they shoot leaves much to be desired, and they are expensive. Pentax have not innovated much either and they've achieved so little market penetration that hardly anyone knows they exist. And to think they once made 35mm SLRs and medium-format film cameras that were pretty much ubiquitous. And their parent company, Ricoh, is pretty much invisible despite recently bringing out a new camera model.
As to the least endangered:
Fuji make solid cameras, even if they're not barn-burners in terms of innovation. They can shoot solid 4K video. All they need now is to bring out a camera and lens system that can handle fast-moving sports and wildlife. Fuji also don't resort to the same kind of endless segmentation and incrementalism that Canon have. Their model lines are simple and understandable.
Most of their lenses are reasonably priced, and the value proposition offered by Fuji is good overall.
Nikon: Their Z6 and Z7 mirrorless full-frame cameras are solid, if a little pricy (but even still, they cost less than comparable Canon or Sony systems). You can use some older Nikon lenses without sensor cropping or other major compromises. Unlike Canon, who are trying to force their customers to buy pricy new RF-mount lenses.
They seem to have a good base for bringing out a new APS-C mirrorless camera.
While Google, Apple and Samsung are not camera makers, they are advancing rapidly in the field of computational photography. If they can bring out a new technology that puts mobile phone cameras on par with, or superior to anything extant within the traditional camera space, then they could potentially sweep all of the existing camera makers into the dustbin, at least where lower-end, consumer-grade and semi-pro cameras are concerned.
