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GoPro stock plummets 90% in less than a 1.5 years


Damphousse
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The last year and a half has been a massacre for GoPro.  It has seen it's stock drop from the 90s down to single digits.  This has been one of the most massive destructions of wealth in the stock market in recent years.  I used to think Canon's stock graph was ugly.

GoPro was a company we constantly heard about as being innovative.  People asked why isn't Canon as innovative as GoPro.  I tried to tell you guys GoPro was a one trick pony and their product would soon be commoditized and elicit shrugs just like the incremental releases of Canon Rebels.  Flavor of the month flash in the pan stuff will come and go but a solid camera system is something you will use for decades.

You also have to consider once everyone has a decent camera they aren't going to upgrade every year.  I still use my T3i.  That is my main digital stills camera.  We have to see what the Sony a6300 is like in real world usage but for $1,000 if it lives up to its spec sheet it is getting pretty damn close to good enough for most consumers.  Actually at the moment most consumers don't even have the computing hardware to edit and/or grade 4k video.  So with Sony giving us all that for $1,000 where does that leave the $1,500 Samsung NX1 and the $1,300 GH4?  Seems like a little shake out action is in order... as I predicted.

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I have two GoPro Hero3 BLK editions. After that, I don't believe the models improved significantly enough... they should've pushed the limits more and priced it more attractively, especially with the rise of alternatives from Sony, but also cheaper ass stuff where 'watch and learn' from GoPro, for GoPro now means watch and learn from the likes of the great Xiaomi ( http://www.xiaoyi.com/en/xiaoyi_en.html ) or SJCAM ( https://sjcamhd.com ) who have taken the concept and ran away with it (SJCAM having made displays a standard on the cams!). GoPros aren't exactly aimed at cinematographers, for your average Joe a Xiaomi or SJCAM will suffice. Sure, then they figured that had to bring out a budget Hero, but too little too late.

I feel like they've should have jumped onboard when 3D/VR started to gain traction... plant as many seeds as you can! They should already have been on that since Ricoh brought their Theta to the market. Sure, they can bring out rigs to rig up multiple GoPro units... I bet that appeals to the masses. NOT. Now we have Kodak... Nikon... following Ricoh's example. Where you now, GoPro?

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I don't like the emphasis GoPro are placing on connectivity and solutions for image-to-final-product workflow.  I bought a Session and like it but have zero interest in wifi or cloud or gopro's editor. A decent image in a one-touch waterproof box is all I want. A lot of "typical" GoPro users I know (skiers, climbers, canoeists etc.) are using their 'phones to capture those "memorable moments".

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11 hours ago, Damphousse said:

The last year and a half has been a massacre for GoPro.  It has seen it's stock drop from the 90s down to single digits.  This has been one of the most massive destructions of wealth in the stock market in recent years.  I used to think Canon's stock graph was ugly.

I had to laugh, destruction of wealth.

Dollar is king again (who knows for how long, expect stock prices going down, oh oh I can feel the bubble bursting).

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9 hours ago, Geoff CB said:

The GoPro Session was a huge marketing and development mistake. Pretty much killed them this year.

There are far more innovative GoPro options out there. The GoPro expanded too much as a company in terms of size, and very little in terms of innovation and competitive pricing. Despite so many resources and so much experience at hand.

There is absolutely no reason that they cannot make much cheaper and better action cams. At the end of the day, the sole reason GoPro came into being, was because they had super affordable cams, that could withstand some element of punishment. They now make far more expensive cameras  (especially compared to the Kickstarter and IndieGoGo Funded and Chinese Made ones), that offer very little above the older ones. As a matter of fact a friend of mine is part of a startup that is bringing out an action cam in the form factor of a watch. 

Basically GoPro needs to get back to having a Lean team, and having salaries related to profits  (I am guessing the Top guys take a few millions in salaries now).

 

Otherwise it will be another Kodak. 

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They completely lost what made them such a success by pricing themselves out of the market they essentially created. Every new top end camera got a $100 price hike while Chinese knockoffs flooded the market at $100 or so. The Black is now what, $500? To the average consumer the $100 models are more than enough. I hope they bounce back, but this doesn't look good with 4k cameras like the SJCam selling for $150, and they're late to the drone game.

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21 hours ago, The Chris said:

They completely lost what made them such a success by pricing themselves out of the market they essentially created. Every new top end camera got a $100 price hike while Chinese knockoffs flooded the market at $100 or so. The Black is now what, $500? To the average consumer the $100 models are more than enough. I hope they bounce back, but this doesn't look good with 4k cameras like the SJCam selling for $150, and they're late to the drone game.

And Now GoPro is completely discounting it's lower end range.

If that's True, GoPro is already dead.

It's top end range is in the $399 - 499 range. That's exorbitant for an action camera especially:

1. With such Small sensors. In the $500 range yiu can get a host of great point and shoot and smaller semi pro cameras with lense (during discounts and used ones).

2. Such average lenses.

3. No built-in stabilisation. Not even digital.

4. A host of way too many competitors. Especially the newer, smaller Chinese and Crowdfunded ones. TBO honest, I never thought Sony, Panasonic or anyone else could dethrone GoPro from the action cam market. But thw Xiaomis andCrowd Funded ones may actually do it, if they aren't already.

Really sad strategy team in GoPro.

 

 

http://m.dpreview.com/news/6451740776/gopro-to-discontinue-three-cameras-and-exit-entry-level-market

 

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On 2/5/2016 at 7:08 AM, Hans Punk said:

GoPro's drone 'Karma' will no doubt eat a decent chunk out of dji's market share when it's released later this year.

 

Who knows?? Probably not. Drones are much more about flying electronics than about camera quality. DJI flies really well and it's pretty reliable. GoPro has to prove a lot of things. Plus they have been talking like two years of drones and haven't produced one yet. 

GoPro lost the low-end and never aimed at a high end. Then the company arrived to 1500 workers, a bit too much?? 

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They do have a trick up their sleaves that could change things.... They own the cineform raw compressed codec.

REDcode's patent means the big boys can't do raw wavelet compression (iirc) so cineform raw could be very valuable to licence (and use in gopro products).

With DJI bringing out the m43 interchangeable raw drone cam... Surely go pro will be looking in that direction?

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This week, GoPro announced it will discontinue three of its six available action cameras and abandon the entry-level market as of this April. They are obviously doing a major gear shift and are banking heavily on the success of their 'Karma' drone, as well as two new dedicated VR cameras. 

The problem is they oversaturated the market - GoPro brand is now used as a collective term for 'wearable action camera'. Other copies of their products can be had at much cheaper cost, due to the mass produced nature of the components. Anyone could enter the action camera market these days, and offer a cheaper camera rival with comparible quality components...as the price of manufacturing has become so cheap.

GoPro's main genius/failure in my opinion is that  they relied too much on aspirational marketing. Perhaps people finally realised that buying a little camera and strapping it to their head will not instantly make them a kick ass rad x-game biker/skydiver/surfer etc?

A similar fate has happened with Apple's recent releases (iwatch and iPhone 6+) - it's a product line direction (and price point) that is not innovative or in demand enough from customers, and sales figures have reflected that.

GoPro has had to shake up its product output to survive. Looks like they are doing exactly that now, and will most probably become the dominant name in entry/mid range drone and VR hardware to come. They will no doubt be offering some flashy products very soon - a contact of mine who has been involved with testing the Karma drone said it was going to be the 'biggest success ever'.

If not, and if GoPro go bust - it will all be because of the manufacturing world we live in today. And the cut-throat nature of underbidding for supply of cheaper unit costs of similar components that kill profits to companies like GoPro by 'a death by a thousand cuts'.

Little cameras that strap to your head are simply not innovative products anymore. GoPro at least acknowledge this and are placing their bets on the VR and drone market being where they can diversify and have a better chance of market relevance and longevity.

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12 hours ago, Hans Punk said:

GoPro's main genius/failure in my opinion is that  they relied too much on aspirational marketing.

Imho, this is the exact problem! 

But VR will probably be a failure outside the game industry. 3D didn't caught because you needed to put eyeglasses, I can't imagine milions of people buying big VR sets... 

And I hope they make great drones, but great drones are already being made and have sold in milions figures. 

Let's hope they can save themselves with Cineform!!!

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VR is the only thing I have a small degree of hope for, I was totally down on it to start with - but have recently been shown some very good examples of next gen headset displays and camera arrays that really make for a convincing argument for 'immersive content'. But the sad thing is, there still seems not to be a clear Idea of what content (other than games) can really capitalise on the technology. Good VR is worth putting a headset on for - regular 3D is not worth putting glasses on for IMHO (especially in most cinema situations - almost always projected below the recommended foot-lambert level).

I suspect GoPro's push is going to be aimed at enabling the aquasition of this content to a somewhat standardised format. At the moment people are still 3D printing rigs to hold multiple GoPro cameras in an array, so it makes perfect sense that they are releasing their own dedicated camera systems and processing software. I can also imagine more of 'the kids' these days wanting a 360 degree video capture of their Run down the slopes, or jumping out of a plane...and to be able to share that experience with others via YouTube's 360 video support or whatever is to come. This has to be what they see as the 'future' of action camera capture.

As for their move into the drone market, they've bought and developed a few interesting ip's in their holdback period - so when the 'Karma' is announced, it should not disappoint those interested in such things.

GoPro only acquired Cineform 5 years ago, so it is little more than a property they own and can implement. But the flexability of that codec suits 3D pretty well, so no doubt they will put that to task with their upcoming VR/ 360 cameras.

As for GoPro cutting down on their action camera product range and expanding into newer realms - it makes perfect business sense. As mentioned before, the GoPro style camera being a unique product is no more. Apart from all the competition action camera models out there to choose from (most of them cheaper) - You can use your smartphone these days for a lot of the same uses that only GoPro could do a few years ago.

 

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1 hour ago, Xavier Plágaro Mussard said:

Imho, this is the exact problem! 

But VR will probably be a failure outside the game industry. 3D didn't caught because you needed to put eyeglasses, I can't imagine milions of people buying big VR sets... 

And I hope they make great drones, but great drones are already being made and have sold in milions figures. 

Let's hope they can save themselves with Cineform!!!

I agree. Except for Google Cardboard, IMHO All other VR Equipment will Fail. It's like 3D Cinema. It has Very Limited Appeal. 

Except with limited screenspace on devices like Google Glass (that Do Not block out outside light and other stuff). 

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